Taycan Turbo S vs. Model S Plaid - really by this much!?

[Jhenson29]

Meh, it's only soft because I didn't present data. I didn't really think I needed to.

Look, I'm not saying that Porsche never would have decided to debut the Mission E. Or Rivian. Or Lucid. Or Canoo. Or Mercedes would launch a phalanx of EV's at the Frankfurt Auto show. But if you really cared enough (and I don't because I honestly don't find any value in convincing anyone since it really doesn't benefit me and I'm not a huge fan of the company anyway) you could look at EV sales in the US over the last 20 years and see the trend. It's not hard.

Here's an interesting presentation on the state of the market from 2012.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2014-09/documents/kodjak121312.pdf

I have checked sales data on EVs. I’ve stated a couple of times in this thread that Tesla’s sales numbers in that time period are insufficient to be the overwhelming factor people claim it is.

It’s a soft argument. Leads to a soft conclusion. Which would be fine if people presented it that way.

But people keep pretending it’s so much stronger than it is. I solicited additional arguments. I’ll listen if someone has them. I just haven’t heard them.

But like you said…why put in the effort? What would you gain? Does the current Taycan today change because you do or don’t convince me of a Tesla’s role?

I said I’m not putting in the effort to prove anything one way or another. Because I don’t really care. I do care about how arguments are presented though. So there’s my line.

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[kreshi]

„Model S decimated the high end sedan market“ ehhhh oooooook sure

 

[feye]

Your labeling anything pro-Tesla as "fanboy nonsense" indiciates just how willing you are to be open in that discussion.

Well, if it is nonsense, it is just that, nonsense!

When Porsche decided to make the Taycan even up to when they started to produce it, T made no money with cars. Why would a company invest so much in a money losing product? Why would they suddenly follow BMW where it was clear in 2015 they could never make money with the i3 let alone recup the investment?

All these car companies must make money with cars and produce a return to shareholders. I keep saying it: follow the numbers not the fanboy garbage!

 

[feye]

„Model S decimated the high end sedan market“ ehhhh oooooook sure

It did happen!

But only for a couple of years in Norway, where a Model S was half price of a Mercedes E-Class due to government regulation.

 

[daveo4EV]

„Model S decimated the high end sedan market“ ehhhh oooooook sure

2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Model S lead the premium sedan market in the US - and that came at the direct expense of the "other guys"

https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-large-luxury-segment/

Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US

Tesla shocked the industry last year when it confirmed having delivered 25,202 Model S sedans in the U.S. in 2015, which gave the company a 25% market share in the premium sedan market.

18k to 29.9k unit sold annually is enough for Tesla to lock up 25-30% of the entire market segment to themselves - all at the expense of Porsche, Merc, Lexus, BMW, Audi

no sales in 2012 - and the first full year they capture 25% of the entire segment to themselves - and continue for the next 7 years to rack up more sales than the other guys combined in a particular segment - yeah every business likes having a new capture 25% of the entire market in a major region for a product none of them can compete with or even thought there was demand for.

I remember visiting the Porsche dealer in 2018 to pick up GT3 - and saw all the Panamera's on the lot - new & used - cause they couldn't sell them in silly-con valley - sales at one dealership in the Bay Area for panameras was down 85% from pre-Model S numbers - and they knew all their customers were buy'ing Model S cause the lease returns weren't flipping into the next model…

thank god for the midwestern states, cause on the coasts you couldn't sell a premium sedan that wasn't a Model S to save your life. It it wasn't for the midwest there would've been virtual no sales for the bigger guys.

you think the Taycan was targets at the model S market by accident? It was calculated after Porsche saw what the Model S did to their Panamera Sales, and the Audi eTron is defending the A8 sales

the Model S caused major pain in this small but profitable market segment - and now the Model 3 and Model Y is sales leader in it's market…and only now is there actually some competition.

they did that for years - and the other guys notice - the only reason it wasn't bigger was it was a small market - but they lead sales for the entire segment they were in - and Trust me the other's noticed and felt the pain…

 

[feye]

and Trust me the other's noticed and felt the pain…

I like your numbers, but it still doesn't proof anything. If the car is that good, why are sales numbers in Norway next to 0, after alternatives came to the market?

So I would need to trust your judgment?

 

[manitou202]

2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Model S lead the premium sedan market in the US - and that came at the direct expense of the "other guys"

https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-large-luxury-segment/

Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US



18k to 29.9k unit sold annually is enough for Tesla to lock up 25-30% of the entire market segment to themselves - all at the expense of Porsche, Merc, Lexus, BMW, Audi

no sales in 2012 - and the first full year they capture 25% of the entire segment to themselves - and continue for the next 7 years to rack up more sales than the other guys combined in a particular segment - yeah every business likes having a new capture 25% of the entire market in a major region for a product none of them can compete with or even thought there was demand for.

I remember visiting the Porsche dealer in 2018 to pick up GT3 - and saw all the Panamera's on the lot - new & used - cause they couldn't sell them in silly-con valley - sales at one dealership in the Bay Area for panameras was down 85% from pre-Model S numbers - and they knew all their customers were buy'ing Model S cause the lease returns weren't flipping into the next model…

thank god for the midwestern states, cause on the coasts you couldn't sell a premium sedan that wasn't a Model S to save your life. It it wasn't for the midwest there would've been virtual no sales for the bigger guys.

you think the Taycan was targets at the model S market by accident? It was calculated after Porsche saw what the Model S did to their Panamera Sales, and the Audi eTron is defending the A8 sales

the Model S caused major pain in this small but profitable market segment - and now the Model 3 and Model Y is sales leader in it's market…and only now is there actually some competition.

they did that for years - and the other guys notice - the only reason it wasn't bigger was it was a small market - but they lead sales for the entire segment they were in - and Trust me the other's noticed and felt the pain…

Dave,

I think this is a story that has been repeatedly told, but isn't backed up by actually sales history. The high end luxury car market wasn't dramatically impacted. Take a look at the sales data below for the US market. All of the major luxury sedan models tend to fluctuate a lot between refreshes and different model years. But there isn't a dramatic collapse.

The Model S appears to have attracted a new set of customers who traditionally bought lower priced vehicles, but were drawn to the idea of a premium electric car. These weren't S Class or Audi A8 buyers. They were wealthy individuals who drove a Prius and bought their first $90k+ car.

I do believe that Mercedes, Porsche, BMW, Audi, etc saw the success of the Model S as a sign that they were missing part of the market because a large group of people wanted a luxury car / status symbol, but didn't want a gas guzzler.

 

[daveo4EV]

I'm simply stating the fact that in the US the Model from 2013-2019 was the sales leader in it's segment by quite a margin (25-30% total sales for the entire market segment) - to say that had no impact on other vendors is simply putting your head in the sand.

that time has passed - but we were talking bout Tesla influencing the industry and being a sales leader in a major market is by definition market influence. the other vendors lost sales to the Model S and Porsche's first EV to market was an EXLICITE response and benchmarked against the Model s.

If you think Tesla had no impact on Porsche you're cherry picking your facts.

 

[Jhenson29]

Porsche's first EV to market was an EXLICITE response

But that right there is a step too far.

Look, even if everything else you’re saying is correct, knowing A could cause B is not the same as knowing A did cause B.

You (and everyone else I’ve seen try to make this claim), is saying because it could have caused it, it did cause it.

The argument isn’t sound, regardless of whether or not the facts are true.

Do you know how to check for absence of voltage? You have to first check for voltage presence on another source, then check for absence of voltage, then check for voltage presence on another source again. The point being to isolate the reason for the 0V reading to actually being because voltage is not present. Otherwise, just because voltage not being present could cause a 0V reading, doesn’t mean that your 0V reading is because there is no voltage.

Or another example. Dropping a plate could break it. But if you know I dropped a plate, does that mean you know the drop broke it? What if it was broken before I dropped it? What if some of the break was before and some after? What if it was weak from use over the years and this drop only broke it because of those years of use? How do you, without all of that other information, assign credit to the drop? What amount? Really, the only thing we know for sure is that my wife is going to yell at me because I dropped a plate.

And that why I keep saying this argument is soft.

 

[daveo4EV]

But that right there is a step too far.

Look, even if everything else you’re saying is correct, knowing A could cause B is not the same as knowing A did cause B.

You (and everyone else I’ve seen try to make this claim), is saying because it could have caused it, it did cause it.

The argument isn’t sound, regardless of whether or not the facts are true.

Do you know how to check for absence of voltage? You have to first check for voltage presence on another source, then check for absence of voltage, then check for voltage presence on another source again. The point being to isolate the reason for the 0V reading to actually being because voltage is not present. Otherwise, just because voltage not being present could cause a 0V reading, doesn’t mean that your 0V reading is because there is no voltage.

Or another example. Dropping a plate could break it. But if you know I dropped a plate, does that mean you know the drop broke it? What if it was broken before I dropped it? What if some of the break was before and some after? What if it was weak from use over the years and this drop only broke it because of those years of use? How do you, without all of that other information, assign credit to the drop? What amount? Really, the only thing we know for sure is that my wife is going to yell at me because I dropped a plate.

And that why I keep saying this argument is soft.

there are multiple photos of the Taycan mules being tested against the Model S - size, range, power, specs, addressing multiple launch problems - and even interviews with prosche management stating they were targeting the S - why is that so hard to believe - it was an explicit response to the market penetration of the S - and they meticuously made sure the Taycan was better than the S…

it’s not too far - it’s why the Mission E was concieved an an EV entry and they targeted the S as a benchmark that they had to do better than.


https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-mission-e/
https://www.bmwblog.com/2015/09/15/porsche-mission-e-porsches-tesla-fighter/

 

[whitex]

If the car is that good, why are sales numbers in Norway next to 0, after alternatives came to the market?

It must be be the yoke effect.

 

[whitex]

But that right there is a step too far.

Look, even if everything else you’re saying is correct, knowing A could cause B is not the same as knowing A did cause B.

You (and everyone else I’ve seen try to make this claim), is saying because it could have caused it, it did cause it.

The argument isn’t sound, regardless of whether or not the facts are true.

Do you know how to check for absence of voltage? You have to first check for voltage presence on another source, then check for absence of voltage, then check for voltage presence on another source again. The point being to isolate the reason for the 0V reading to actually being because voltage is not present. Otherwise, just because voltage not being present could cause a 0V reading, doesn’t mean that your 0V reading is because there is no voltage.

Or another example. Dropping a plate could break it. But if you know I dropped a plate, does that mean you know the drop broke it? What if it was broken before I dropped it? What if some of the break was before and some after? What if it was weak from use over the years and this drop only broke it because of those years of use? How do you, without all of that other information, assign credit to the drop? What amount? Really, the only thing we know for sure is that my wife is going to yell at me because I dropped a plate.

And that why I keep saying this argument is soft.

Hmm... perhaps the plate self-destructed while on the way down (quantum physics tells this this is possible, not at all likely, but possible, just like if you run a Taycan at 100mph at a brick wall, there exists a chance, however astronomically small, that the Taycan will in fact tunnel through, i.e. disappear on one side of the wall and appear on the other side without a scratch). If we follow the logic further, perhaps we all live in a Matrix-like simulation, and the Taycan was simply inserted into the simulation to see what happens. Go ahead, prove that you're not living in a simulation.

PS> Quickest way to check for voltage, touch both terminals to your tongue. ? Make sure you got your affairs in order first if there is a chance the voltage could be lethal.

 

[f1eng]

Meh, it's only soft because I didn't present data. I didn't really think I needed to.

Look, I'm not saying that Porsche never would have decided to debut the Mission E. Or Rivian. Or Lucid. Or Canoo. Or Mercedes would launch a phalanx of EV's at the Frankfurt Auto show. But if you really cared enough (and I don't because I honestly don't find any value in convincing anyone since it really doesn't benefit me and I'm not a huge fan of the company anyway) you could look at EV sales in the US over the last 20 years and see the trend. It's not hard.

Here's an interesting presentation on the state of the market from 2012.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2014-09/documents/kodjak121312.pdf

I think the US is an outlier but a quite big market so it has to be taken into consideration by non-US manufacturers.

The UK is banning all IC engined cars as of 2030 and other countries have legislation in place or in discussion so all the makers are busy making electric cars.
From my perspective it has nothing to do with Tesla and everything to do with legislation, whether you approve of the legislation or not.

Tesla is a fairly typical US maker in terms of design, manufacture and marketing and until the model 3 came along didn't have an ideal car for Europe, and even now most of our cars are hatchbacks so the model 3 is at a disadvantage here it wouldn't be if more like the European and Japanese cars.

 

[f1eng]

2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Model S lead the premium sedan market in the US - and that came at the direct expense of the "other guys"

https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-large-luxury-segment/

Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US



18k to 29.9k unit sold annually is enough for Tesla to lock up 25-30% of the entire market segment to themselves - all at the expense of Porsche, Merc, Lexus, BMW, Audi

no sales in 2012 - and the first full year they capture 25% of the entire segment to themselves - and continue for the next 7 years to rack up more sales than the other guys combined in a particular segment - yeah every business likes having a new capture 25% of the entire market in a major region for a product none of them can compete with or even thought there was demand for.

I remember visiting the Porsche dealer in 2018 to pick up GT3 - and saw all the Panamera's on the lot - new & used - cause they couldn't sell them in silly-con valley - sales at one dealership in the Bay Area for panameras was down 85% from pre-Model S numbers - and they knew all their customers were buy'ing Model S cause the lease returns weren't flipping into the next model…

thank god for the midwestern states, cause on the coasts you couldn't sell a premium sedan that wasn't a Model S to save your life. It it wasn't for the midwest there would've been virtual no sales for the bigger guys.

you think the Taycan was targets at the model S market by accident? It was calculated after Porsche saw what the Model S did to their Panamera Sales, and the Audi eTron is defending the A8 sales

the Model S caused major pain in this small but profitable market segment - and now the Model 3 and Model Y is sales leader in it's market…and only now is there actually some competition.

they did that for years - and the other guys notice - the only reason it wasn't bigger was it was a small market - but they lead sales for the entire segment they were in - and Trust me the other's noticed and felt the pain…

Again the US market this is clearly the case.
Personally I would not compare a Model S to any of the cars listed because of the poor fit and finish and low rent cabin - one of the main reasons I wouldn't buy one.

Elon Musk offered somebody I know who he met at a F1 race a job at Tesla so when I was considering buying one 4 years ago I called him.
In summary he said it is an amazing car but I might not like the way it drove and advised me to rent one for a week to see. He also said the interior quality was nowhere near as good as we were used to.
Much more suited to the US market than the European.
No surprise and quite understandable but extrapolating US success as relevant to the world is always wrong IME.

 

[kreshi]

The Toyota Corolla outsells the Porsche 911. Corollas are decimating Porsche’s sales!

The Model S is a nice car, all good and well.
But, Jesus Christ, how are people comparing the Model S to the Mercedes S Class or BMW 7 Series????? This cannot be for debate. COMPLETELY different classes of cars. The Model S is in the segment of a barely equipped Audi A6 or even Audi A4. Luxury? High end? Especially at that time? Reality should be included in arguments here please.

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