Does the Taycan make petrol engine supercars old-fashioned or even obsolete?

[HK111]

Hello,

whenever I experimentally switch back from the T to my Corvette, it feels as if the Corvette has fallen out of time. I mean, the C7 is actually a quite amazing car with a great rumbling V8, but still, when coming from the electric car, it feels as if the C7 is kaputt, I find myself thinking "something must have gone out of order while the Corvette was standing here unused for a month".

Do you think this is a general trend? Do electric sports cars like the Taycan suddenly turn almost all regular sports cars into oldtimers?

Cheers,
Henrik

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[daveo4EV]

once you go EV you can’t go back - yes it’s like taking away your smartphone and giving you back a flip phone with no camera.

this explains the passion of the TEsla crowd, I think they are actually more in love with an EV than they are Tesla, but since two at this time are so closely linked they can’t tell and/or not aware of the two separate passions.

me personally I’m Pro-EV and really really like them better than gas cars, but we’re not yet at a point where there is enough choice across the range of options for a decent/good/excellent EV....

as the industry matures I believe people will become less Pro-Tesla and properly realize what they really really liked wasn’t tesla, but a good modern EV interpretation of a what an EV could be…and it will be nice to have other choices.

 

[taycantom]

I think yes and no... the one key factor that comes to mind is weight. The Taycan does outstanding things to keep its weight under control, but the physics are an inherent disadvantage. As battery tech continues to improve and energy density increases and/or efficiency of consumption improves, this should become less of a problem if that leads to lower total weight in EVs.

That said, my past two car purchases were EVs, and any future cars will also be EVs.

 

[JC Mann]

I think yes and no... the one key factor that comes to mind is weight. The Taycan does outstanding things to keep its weight under control, but the physics are an inherent disadvantage. As battery tech continues to improve and energy density increases and/or efficiency of consumption improves, this should become less of a problem if that leads to lower total weight in EVs.

That said, my past two car purchases were EVs, and any future cars will also be EVs.

I think that in the near term, increased battery energy density will be applied to more range than to decreased weight.

 

[wmras]

I think that in the near term, increased battery energy density will be applied to more range than to decreased weight.

Some people suggest electric vehicles are a 20-year interim solution until fuel cells are perfected.

 

[daveo4EV]

Some people suggest electric vehicles are a 20-year interim solution until fuel cells are perfected.

two things:

1. H2 is mostly made from fossil fuels - cracking H2O is too expensive energywise
   1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_production?wprov=sfti1
   2. you still throw off CO2 after making H2 from fossil fuels
   3. this still uses natural gas as a fuel source, but rather than burning it you chemically “crack” and strip the H atoms form the hydro-carbon chains - but still have all the same emissions as to do with burning the fuel - you simple isolate the H2 to be burned later cleanly, and you move all the GHG emissions to the refining process rather than during fuel burning in the ICE.
   4. you say potato I say patato…
2. Fuel Cells are about 19-26% efficien vs. 68% efficient for battery EV’s

There are four main sources for the commercial production of hydrogen: natural gas, oil, coal, and electrolysis; which account for 48%, 30%, 18% and 4% of the world's hydrogen production respectively. Fossil fuels are the dominant source of industrial hydrogen. Carbon dioxide can be separated from natural gas with a 70–85% efficiency for hydrogen production and from other hydrocarbons to varying degrees of efficiency. Specifically, bulk hydrogen is usually produced by the steam reforming of methane or natural gas.

4% of commerical H2 production is from water - the remainder is surprisingly similiar in nature to existing fossil fuel refining methods - which is a familar business model for the existin fossil fuel industry - they are unsurprisingly big fans of Fuel Cells - cause it leaves them in the fundementially the same business model. Extract Fossil Fuels, Refine Fossil Fuels, Distribute the refined product as pre-packaged refined pure high density energy products. You’ve simply move the “emissions” to a different part of the consumption chain.

fuel cells have applications - but it is still fundenmentally a 20% efficient solution using fossil fuel as a fuel source…I’m dubious - it’s clean at the exhaust pipe, but all the emissions are move to a different place in the fuel chain - and the raw amount of electricity used to make H2 is largely lost in packaging and distribution.

to read the chart above you start with 100 kWh of renewable power at the top - and the bottom shows how much of the original 100 kWh actually ends up being available to move the vehicle in the final step…

Fuel Cell vehicles are 19-23% efficient
Battery EV’s are 69% efficient

this chart also ignore the real complexity of H2 fueling - H2 is one of the most dangerous and volatile substances known to man and very very difficult to safely handle for a mass market average consumer product.

 

[Gwaihir]

Hello,

whenever I experimentally switch back from the T to my Corvette, it feels as if the Corvette has fallen out of time. I mean, the C7 is actually a quite amazing car with a great rumbling V8, but still, when coming from the electric car, it feels as if the C7 is kaputt, I find myself thinking "something must have gone out of order while the Corvette was standing here unused for a month".

Do you think this is a general trend? Do electric sports cars like the Taycan suddenly turn almost all regular sports cars into oldtimers?

Cheers,
Henrik

I’m thinking ahead when Porsche have a tri-motor Taycan and torque vectoring. . . .

 

[daveo4EV]

multi-engine EV’s are effective a ‘soft-ware” differential with infinite and immediate control that is mechanically impossible with tranditional drive trains…

test driver’s I’ve spoken to at track events have driven prototype vehicles with GPS based profile control that modifies the equivilant of a differential-ratio “on the fly” with the best ratio being controlled by software dynamically for each corner on the track…

one 30 year test driver I spoke too had his mind blown by what could be accomplished in software in 3 days of testing - he said the vehicle went from 100% suck on friday, and by sunday they had dialed in the best vehicle he had ever driven all with software changes to a multi-motor EV…he estimated in 3 days they accomplished design chagne that would take 3 years mechanically to develop.

the future is bright…

• picture 150 kWh batteries that weight 750 lbs or less (making EV lighter than their ICE competition with more range and power)
• and 4 wheel drive motors with advance milli-sec level software control for power offering effectively an infinate ratio differential with beyond rapid response…

the test driver I spoke to said he realized that weekend that ICE cars were done and it’s now just a matter of time - he was driving prototypes slated for 2025 or 2026 commerical production - and the designers and engineers were simply giddy with what they were accomplishing - if brought to market these products will devistate traditional ICE performance vehicles.

the only question is how the exiting manufactures transition to these new products, since they will heavily canibalise/destroy their existing and highly profitable product lines (Taycan leads panamera sales in Europe for example and we’re only getting started). This is a tricky thing to pull off and not tank your existing business too quickly…interesting times we’re living in.

but even in 2030 I’m guessing we’ll still have 12V batteries that occassionally go dead - {sigh}

 

[daveo4EV]

I also “bristle” at the implied assumption that as we go forward only “one” type of power system and drive train is required - my hope is that we evolve to a ‘mix’ - the ICE drive train and gasoline is a powerful system with characteristics well suited for certain use cases - we do not have to evolve into a single system…

the goal in my opinion is major reductions in GHG’s and improvements in efficiency - one possible mix is:

EV’s for DD’s and high congestion area driving
fuel cells for major cargo transportation (trucks, trains, boats)
ICE vehicles for rural and extreme circumstances where infrastructure is lacking and will never be sufficient for EV’s

if we simply transitioned all/most/some of the mostly idle ICE’s out of the daily 60 mile round trip commute where they sit there burning fuel for no work accomplished we could keep the ford F150’s that are used by people that need a high capacity vehicle in rural areas

the demise of the ICE engine has been greatly over estimated by assuming we can not have multiple solutions to fit different circumstances.

• erradication is expensive and infeasible, undesirable, and probably un-necessary in the end
• major reduction in ICE use is feasible, desirable, and probably sustainable

over time we’ll be more selective about which type of transportation system we choose for what purpose and fore see all these systems being with us for quite some time - but I’m a strong advocate for more EV up to a point

 

[HK111]

Some people suggest electric vehicles are a 20-year interim solution until fuel cells are perfected.

Keep in mind that a fuel cell car is an electric vehicle. It just doesn't have a big battery as an energy source, but a hydrogen tank and the fuel cell.

So, "from the motor up", most is the same anyway.

Cheers,
Henrik

 

[Kingske]

the goal in my opinion is major reductions in GHG’s and improvements in efficiency - one possible mix is:

EV’s for DD’s and high congestion area driving
fuel cells for major cargo transportation (trucks, trains, boats)
ICE vehicles for rural and extreme circumstances where infrastructure is lacking and will never be sufficient for EV’s

A bit like the current mix of power supply:
- conventional electrical grid to homes and businesses in populated areas,
- high-voltage power lines into factories,
- gas-powered generators for homes in remote areas and for back-up purposes.

 

[manitou202]

Most supercars and hypercars today are all about numbers and attention. EV supercars will be able to throw down numbers that dwarf petrol supercars and will be able to offer even more exotic chassis and designs because of the powertrain configurations.

What EV's will struggle to replace is the cars that are more about feel and passion like the Porsche GT3. Having a manual transmission with a high revving flat six behind you is going to be really hard to compete with. But I believe this type of product mostly appeals to older generations, and will slowly fade away.

 

[daveo4EV]

an example of ”mixing” different types is as follows:

• Porsche Taycan daily commuter - pure EV - major reduction in impact for daily driving
• Porsche Cayenne eHybrid - 90% EV usage running around the neighborhood for daily usage, ICE for family road trips 2 or 3 times a year - perfect home parent vehicle kids and errands
• Porsche GT3 for recreational use at the track - 3 days a month, 7-9 months a year, and occasional sunny day weekend jaunts

look the above list and envision the reduction in gasoline usage - but not giving up any ease of use or awkward use cases…repeat this mix across 25,000,000 million families in the US alone and the shift in gasoline usage would be substantial - and we all get to keep our GT3’s - because their impact was inconsequential anyways…

the problem with this rosy scenario is that as EV’s rise, there will be less investigation/evolution of the ICE engine and it will stagnate due to a lack of investment - there are not a lot of steam-engine mechanics or improvements on the table for 2020 and beyond because we as a society and business have moved on…

BEV‘s are in my opinion the perfect DD for major congested areas - and those areas and the large impact of transitioning those use cases to EV’s dominate the emissions “problem” - we don’t need to chase down the 10,000 person communities using trucks, tractors, and other useful ICE’s who’s total consumption pails in comparision to the x,000,000 (millions) vehicles a day sitting in traffic in LA or New York…

 

[porsche_coyote]

I also “bristle” at the implied assumption that as we go forward only “one” type of power system and drive train is required - my hope is that we evolve to a ‘mix’ - the ICE drive train and gasoline is a powerful system with characteristics well suited for certain use cases - we do not have to evolve into a single system…

the goal in my opinion is major reductions in GHG’s and improvements in efficiency - one possible mix is:

EV’s for DD’s and high congestion area driving
fuel cells for major cargo transportation (trucks, trains, boats)
ICE vehicles for rural and extreme circumstances where infrastructure is lacking and will never be sufficient for EV’s

if we simply transitioned all/most/some of the mostly idle ICE’s out of the daily 60 mile round trip commute where they sit there burning fuel for no work accomplished we could keep the ford F150’s that are used by people that need a high capacity vehicle in rural areas

the demise of the ICE engine has been greatly over estimated by assuming we can not have multiple solutions to fit different circumstances.

• erradication is expensive and infeasible, undesirable, and probably un-necessary in the end
• major reduction in ICE use is feasible, desirable, and probably sustainable

over time we’ll be more selective about which type of transportation system we choose for what purpose and fore see all these systems being with us for quite some time - but I’m a strong advocate for more EV up to a point

I would propose one modification to this mix: I think that vehicles like local delivery trucks and transit buses should easily work as BEVs. They tend to have short, stop-go routes of known length, and typically return to a depot on a nightly basis (where they could easily be charged).

 

[daveo4EV]

would propose one modification to this mix: I think that vehicles like local delivery trucks and transit buses should easily work as BEVs.

agreed 100% - the main point is - quit thinking in all/nothing terms (a problem that plagues our society right now beyond this conversation)

we can make substantial and incremental progress on a number of fronts simutanioiusly without "banning" everything (cancel culture) to make our point…

push hard for progress, but leave things alone that don't matter or aren't going to help achieve the goal…

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