October Deliveries

[thinkbusiness]

Literally did not think this day would ever come.

Production finished today, huge milestone. We're all gonna make it!

This includes the 12V battery and a Bose sound system?

 

[jld1]

This includes the 12V battery and a Bose sound system?

Not sure, but I'll be sad* if it doesn't.

*suicidal

I really think the 12V battery problem is affecting only the cars that were produced just before factory summer break. These are the only cars I'm seeing that are being held when I read around the forum here.

Otherwise, they're being extremely optimistic about my car saying it'll get to me in 5 weeks. I feel like while TYD isn't that accurate, they should at least know that there's X amount of cars needing a battery first before Y of cars get produced who obviously also need a 12V battery, which would then push back those cars' delivery dates. But I do not think that's the case, here's why...

I feel like for the next cycle of 2023 Taycans, they have batteries. Now, they're just tracking down those "certain completed vehicles" as the website says and allocating batteries to them on an individual basis. Hence certain users being stuck at port/factory since the middle of the summer. Otherwise, you'd think their warning message would say something like "there is a shortage of 12V batteries and therefore all Taycan produced from June (or whatever) on will be delayed until our supply is regained" instead of the verbiage "certain completed vehicles" don't have batteries.

The timeline is my head is:

• May/June 2022: Taycans are 99.9% completed, but missing the 12V battery. At some point, a battery shortage starts (reportedly a fire). Now these 99.9% Taycans are moved out of factory to port/storage for holding until battery supplies return.
• July-August 2022: Summer factory break. Batteries are replenished to full capacity, so the cars are still sitting at port/storage awaiting retrofit.
• Sept 2022-: Taycan production resumes as normal. All cars that previously had no batteries are tracked down and retrofitted, all future Taycans (mine hopefully) will be completed as usual given the new full supply.

Or I could be 100% wrong and they're full steam ahead just building as many and as much of the cars as they can and then retrofitting batteries as they come in. In which case, no way would I be getting my car in a month, since there would be tons of vehicles ahead of me chronologically needing batteries.

Just my theory when putting it all together.

 

[whan]

Yeah I suppose we will find out - your theory could be valid, or it could be a roughly chronological order with just a lot of cars waiting and TYD being far too optimistic

FWIW, there is a west coast boat leaving Emden this week. So far my car hasn't seen any movement to Emden. My car started production pre-shutdown (so last 2022) on 7/19, completed post shutdown on 8/18 pretty soon after the factory reopened.

I think it'll be a test of if any cars that started right when factory reopened and were completed Mid August, get on this next boat leaving 9/30. If not, it seems more likely that the 12V delay is just massive and potentially getting worse

 

[Atipical]

My car finished production a couple of weeks ago and has been stuck at “Ready to Transport” to Emden. I think they’re just building cars and doing batteries later. I wouldn’t get too optimistic until the car is on the boat. And even then…..

 

[whan]

My car finished production a couple of weeks ago and has been stuck at “Ready to Transport” to Emden. I think they’re just building cars and doing batteries later. I wouldn’t get too optimistic until the car is on the boat. And even then…..

Yeah if your car doesn't get on the boat soon, then I think the jld1's theory may be busted, since yours started production after the factory shutdown

 

[jld1]

Yep that does potentially kill the theory. Yours is a MY23 @Atipical?


Nevermind: I forgot you posted a while ago at the beginning of this thread, from the Virginia region of Spain.

 

[jld1]

Yeah if your car doesn't get on the boat soon, then I think the jld1's theory may be busted, since yours started production after the factory shutdown

There's the SLF Composer departing Emden this Friday... heading to Davisville, RI. If atipical's car gets on that ship, the theory holds up for now. Without all his TYD info, it's hard to know. I assume his car is going to RI as it is the nearest port for cars bound to Virginia. Jacksonville FL is a longer ride, albeit not by that much.

Edit: Nix that - I stalked his posts (lol sorry I'm bored) and see that his entry port is actually Baltimore, which, duh, of course it is. Regardless it would still be the same ship, since the Composer stops in Baltimore 3 days after Davisville. Fingers crossed for atipical... because that'll bode well for me, ha!

Furthermore, the Composer, as of 2244EDT, is sitting in the North Sea*, due to arrive at Emdem tomorrow at noon. That should be ample time to prepare for loading up some Taycans/VW cars on the 30th. Friday will be a very enlightening day for us all.

*edited: previously said the English Channel, but my geography was a bit off.

 

[jld1]

This may be me right now.

 

[KoSoVaR]

Not to be a downer - but there’s just no way they’d stop production due to a battery shortage and not have a FIFO process to ship vehicles. The theory isn’t really resonating and sure doesn’t make a lot of sense.

 

[Atipical]

Yep that does potentially kill the theory. Yours is a MY23 @Atipical?


Nevermind: I forgot you posted a while ago at the beginning of this thread, from the Virginia region of Spain.

If someone can tell me how to take Spain off of my account and change it to USA that’d be grrrreeeeeaaaaattt.

 

[jld1]

Not to be a downer - but there’s just no way they’d stop production due to a battery shortage and not have a FIFO process to ship vehicles. The theory isn’t really resonating and sure doesn’t make a lot of sense.

I don't mean this disrespectfully but maybe you are unaware of the full situation with produced cars awaiting batteries. They're not all just sitting in Zuffenhausen in a perfect line waiting for batteries to be fitted in chronologically produced order. They're in various places across Germany/Europe. Some are near the factory in storage, some are at Emden port, some are actually sitting at their dealerships (I know of at least one user who has been checking in on the car at the dealer).

So even if they wanted to do FIFO, I'd imagine the process would be to go by VIN and ship the batteries to their respective locations - this would not delay the new MY23 cars being built since retrofitting those missing batteries would be done at the location of vehicle, not at the factory where new cars are being built.

An analogy would be this: you own a bakery that produces 15 strawberry cakes a day. On Tuesday, you make 15 cakes but only have enough strawberries to decorate the outside for 10 cakes. You ship those 10 and store the remaining 5 in a separate freezer. On every Wednesday, your bakery doesn't make any new pastries, perhaps this day is used for inventory/business/sales. So you go purchase enough strawberries for the 5 cakes and for the cakes you'll make the rest of the week. You finish the 5 cakes on Wednesday and ship them, reopen with a full supply of strawberries on Thursdays. Those 15 on Thursday are still made by the end of their usual day without delay.

Cheers.

Another thing I'll add is that we can't automatically assume Porsche is doing things FIFO in this scenario, since they haven't been exactly logical/transparent during 2022. The only thing I can say is that they did seem to push cars out to the people who lost theirs on the Felicity Ace before other orders, which is why I assume my original August delivery got pushed back.

Again - I'm totally fine and even expect I'll be wrong about this, but I don't see how it's illogical.

 

[KoSoVaR]

#101 @jld1

No disrespect taken! I hope my tone isn’t off putting either. You’re correct, I don’t know how Porsche is shipping cakes. I can only assume they ship cars but I wouldn’t mind a Porsche cake at some point.

The felicity ace incident was unfortunate and I would expect them to reintroduce those orders to the front of the production line.

I don’t think it’s illogical to come up with theories on what’s happening. I just don’t agree with this specific one because it doesn’t make sense to me from a business perspective. Wherever the cars are, there’s a backlog of releasing old assets from inventory and in to the hands of customers. Porsche, or any company, doesn’t want to hold assets for longer than they need to.

We can deduct what’s happening by enough folks posting their actual timelines and comparing. I have yet to see any data that would have me conclude anything other than FIFO based on posts on forums and speculation. AFAIK, no 23 has been delivered yet.

Based on recent activity, Porsche has started to move vehicles with early July build dates. And it hasn’t changed over the last few months. Perhaps this isn’t enough data to be satisfactory, but it sure is telling.

 

[jld1]

Atipical has a good thread about current deliveries here.

Seems like the only person to get one recently was a Dutch fellow whose dealership ripped the 12V battery out of another vehicle to delivery his!

But that does go a bit towards my point - there is no priority set for the already built cars, perhaps.

I am being naively optimistic, though.

 

[Hirschaj]

Now I want cake.

 

[jld1]

My dates for transport shifted a little bit. Tomorrow didn't make much sense anyway, so now it's 10/7. That does imply that my car is just awaiting a battery before they send it to Emden... we'll see. Final delivery date remains the same.

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