Taycan Q1 2022 US Sales Remain Steady Year Over Year

[W1NGE]

There is no public domain data to challenge so we can all stop guessing and worrying.

Porsche isn't out to be a mass car producer (apparently) - VW ticks that box in general.

Fewer Porsches on the road is good news for all of us - "treat 'em mean and keep them keen"!

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[DCYL725]

Despite the headline, this is very worrisome. Porche's staple products (Cayenne and Macan) took a 43% and 25% dive. Overall sales fell by 23% from jan 2021 which was already a down year.

This is terrible.

Everything is down, not just Porsche.

I don't think it's as worrisome from a fundamental perspective given the supply-side issues. Current semi-conductor/global supply chain issues are transient and one-off. Gives little reason to assume a slowdown for Porsche will trend into the outer years (3-5 years).

Now, if demand is the suspected issue then that is a big, big problem for Porsche. Either they lost their customer base due to a competitor gaining market share from loss of trust from some major quality issue. If that were the case, Porsche would not be able to go through its upcoming IPO until those issues are fixed and its revenue will projection will form a long-term downtrend. If it gets bad enough, downsizing is at hand and Porsche will find itself in a difficult position.

For the overall car industry, it's a great setup in my view...low 2022 base due to an extrinsic one-off ,leading to easy comps for the next year or two....

Anyways, that's a whole other topic.

 

[soawjo]

It seems that January and February European sales were up YoY:

https://carsalesbase.com/europe-porsche/

Of course it's possible they took a dive in March to be down on the quarter overall

 

[whan]

It's almost certainly a supply-side issue, and not related to demand. Dropping by a dealer, they have almost no new cars on the lot, and those that are there are already spoken for. Our local dealer is asking small markups on base 911s now, where in the past you could get a discount. If it was demand related, you'd see large inventory, and discounts.

If anything, the dynamic with the Panamera having a 75% increase in sales supports this. The Panamera in general is known to be a car with declining sales - last year it was less than 1/4 of Taycan sales. The only reason that makes sense to see such a huge increase is that other cars weren't available to buy, so some people bought the panameras that were still on the lot instead of taycans or cayennes

 

[Chris8536]

It's almost certainly a supply-side issue, and not related to demand. Dropping by a dealer, they have almost no new cars on the lot, and those that are there are already spoken for. Our local dealer is asking small markups on base 911s now, where in the past you could get a discount. If it was demand related, you'd see large inventory, and discounts.

If anything, the dynamic with the Panamera having a 75% increase in sales supports this. The Panamera in general is known to be a car with declining sales - last year it was less than 1/4 of Taycan sales. The only reason that makes sense to see such a huge increase is that other cars weren't available to buy, so some people bought the panameras that were still on the lot instead of taycans or cayennes

Yes but this is their moneymaking mass produced products. Margin on the Macan and Cayenne is what keeps Porsche going, not 911 or even Taycan sales. Production has essentially stopped for some of these models from what I can tell and even if there is a real reason other than demand, its still a serious loss of revenue.

No idea what it means in the end end stage, but "Taycan sales stay steady" isn't the headline I'd get out of this data

 

[O2TheL]

Fewer Porsches on the road is good news for all of us

That's my perspective. Hence why I asked why the poster saw lower sales as a bad thing.

I'm all about the demand side of the equation if I'm an owner of something

 

[Archimedes]

I was thinking the reverse - lower sales indicates greater availability for production. Yet we're all experiencing huge delays anyway, so that theory doesn't seem too solid.

I'm sorry, wut? How is a plant idled due to lack of parts 'greater availability for production'?

Also, remember, those numbers are 'deliveries', so cars that have been produced and are sitting waiting on parts before being delivered to customers are not in that number.

 

[Chris8536]

That's my perspective. Hence why I asked why the poster saw lower sales as a bad thing.

I'm all about the demand side of the equation if I'm an owner of something

Hoping for denial of access to others as a way to drive up your value is such a sad and small way of looking at the world.

 

[Archimedes]

If you can't deliver you can't deliver. That's an issue no matter what. And yes everyone will be having the same issue. Im guessing the proposed Porsche spinoff IPO will be put on hold under these types of numbers.

If you have demand for 5,000 cars, but only 'deliver' 1,000 due to temporary supply constraints, that's a temporary issue, not a long term problem. Also, remember, those numbers are not production or orders or even committed sales - they are actual deliveries to customers. So all of those cars sitting at ports and dealers around the world waiting on parts before delivery are not in those numbers.

 

[jld1]

I'm sorry, wut? How is a plant idled due to lack of parts 'greater availability for production'?

Also, remember, those numbers are 'deliveries', so cars that have been produced and are sitting waiting on parts before being delivered to customers are not in that number.

Because I was looking at the number of sales. Low sales = low demand = fewer cars made = more parts available. I didn't realize this was deliveries, so it's a bit misleading.

The original post didn't say anything about idled factories also.

 

[O2TheL]

Hoping for denial of access to others as a way to drive up your value is such a sad and small way of looking at the world.

Huh? You're reading it totally wrong. This is not a case of the supplier limiting access (like OPEC), but rather buyers pulling demand. I'm guessing you didn't major in economics ;-)

Seriously though, totally not looking for a fight here. Was just trying to enhance the conversation with a different perspective. I'm not a likely ever to be a Porsche shareholder, so have no particular interest in higher sales and don't really see any other tangible benefit. I own many Ducati motorcycles and my sense is that their increased sales volumes over the past few years has not enhanced my joy of ownership one bit.

Like most owners (I expect) very little of my net worth is attributed to my Taycan, so honestly a x% less drop in residual is merely a drop in the proverbial ocean.

All good though. Happy you're championing the brand in your way. (it's also ok for others to champion in their way)

 

[O2TheL]

Because I was looking at the number of sales. Low sales = low demand = fewer cars made = more parts available. I didn't realize this was deliveries, so it's a bit misleading.

The original post didn't say anything about idled factories also.

Easily done.
In accounting language, the words "Sales" equates to "deliveries". It's often misunderstood as "orders", which is just an indication of (potential) future sales.

 

[Chris8536]

I'm guessing you didn't major in economics ;-)

Seriously though, totally not looking for a fight here.

sure. We all assume this is a demand-pull inflation relationship (it actually could be bending into consumer sentiment driving down demand soon though as well). I'm just saying wishing for shortages on others for your own benefit is in poor taste. Sort of like "Bears don't dance."

 

[gnop1950]

2022 Q1 Car Sales drop because of the reasons already mentioned, supply chain issues, etc. sales are dropping for pretty much all car manufacturers. The linked article mentions GM, Toyota, and Honda with Ford, Tesla, and Stellantis due to report Q1 sales shortly. If anything Porsche did as well, maybe better than a number of other manufacturers.

 

[O2TheL]

I'm just saying wishing for shortages on others for your own benefit is in poor taste. Sort of like "Bears don't dance."

Again. I wasn't wishing for shortages. I was commenting on the low sales.

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