Taycan Turbo S vs. Model S Plaid - really by this much!?

[Dee]

I can not imagining someone's driving a Porsche (Panamera/Cayenne) and want to switch to a Model S.
Just wondering why Panamera sales went down 85%, is that really true?
What about the Cayenne sales?
What would be the sales of the Panamera if there wasn't a Model S?
Unfortunately there's no null-test about this.

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[manitou202]

I'm simply stating the fact that in the US the Model from 2013-2019 was the sales leader in it's segment by quite a margin (25-30% total sales for the entire market segment) - to say that had no impact on other vendors is simply putting your head in the sand.

that time has passed - but we were talking bout Tesla influencing the industry and being a sales leader in a major market is by definition market influence. the other vendors lost sales to the Model S and Porsche's first EV to market was an EXLICITE response and benchmarked against the Model s.

If you think Tesla had no impact on Porsche you're cherry picking your facts.

Oh, the Tesla and the Model S has absolutely shaken up the auto industry. It has redefined what is possible both for an EV and from a software perspective. Tesla deserves credit for this. I was simply pointing out that buyers weren't leaving Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Porsche to go by a Model S in huge numbers. Tesla was bringing new buyers to the table who weren't interested in this price point of vehicle originally.

Same goes for the Model Y and 3. I know numerous people who have bought Teslas over the past few years and for many it was the most expensive car they have ever bought.

 

[daveo4EV]

I can not imagining someone's driving a Porsche (Panamera/Cayenne) and want to switch to a Model S.
Just wondering why Panamera sales went down 85%, is that really true?
What about the Cayenne sales?
What would be the sales of the Panamera if there wasn't a Model S?
Unfortunately there's no null-test about this.

• I’m not saying this “should” be - I simply stating the FACTS that between 2013-2018/19 in the price segment in the US - Model S was routinely 25-30% of total market segment sales and was in fact the sales leader by quite a margin for sedans in it’s price range.
• I can not confirm the 85% figure - but it’s what I was told by the general manager of a local porsche dealership in the Northern California Bay area - this figure was not nationwide but was the figure he shared for his dealership -and they move a lot of porsche’s
• similar stories in that time period can be noted for other brands (Merc/BMW) - it was very very hard to sell ICE sedans once the Model S was available - that is certainly the case in California once of the largest automotive markets in the world (LA and SF Bay area account for a LOT of vehicle sales)

let’s not confuse the actual sales data where the Model S in North America was in _FACT_ the sales leader for it’s price segement with your personal opinion as to _IF_ it deserves to be there or is actually comparable to the competition in that segment. During this time period it unquestionably stole sales from other sedans in it’s price segment - the sales data does not lie. And for an upstart with a range of issues that was significant and it caused much consternation across the industry. There is NO DOUBT Audi/Porsche sales were impacted negatively by the Model S - they had to respond.

we can argue forever as to quality, price, and should’a, could’a, would’a and I would never - but selling 25% TO 30% of the entire market segement for 6 or 7 years running is something Tesla did in North America - and this impacted people’s plans and products. They had to respond. with out the Model S taking 25-30% of market segment sales we would not have had the Taycan in 2020 in the US market…

my local dealer said he couldn’t and still can’t sell a Panamera in the bay area to virtually anyone that has a pulse or any awareness of car market dynamics - the EV market killed his dealership’s Panamera market…

now should have the Model S done that? Many on this forum argue no it should not have - and then cite many many facts and opinions - most of which I agree with…but the simple fact of the matter is that it DID do that for 7 years - and that my friends _IS_ market influence. To believe the Model S was not an accelerating factor in EV being brought to market is beyond my comprehension if you are remotely analytical. The fact that they did it with an inferior product (by many people’s opinions on this forum) doesn’t make it un-true - it makes it even more significant.

Tesla moved the industry - period - plain - simple - factually.

 

[daveo4EV]

1. Oh, the Tesla and the Model S has absolutely shaken up the auto industry. It has redefined what is possible both for an EV and from a software perspective. Tesla deserves credit for this. I was simply pointing out that buyers weren't leaving Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Porsche to go by a Model S in huge numbers. Tesla was bringing new buyers to the table who weren't interested in this price point of vehicle originally.

Same goes for the Model Y and 3. I know numerous people who have bought Teslas over the past few years and for many it was the most expensive car they have ever bought.

it’s probably a bit of both - I kow for a fact people bought hte Model S instead of [brand A] - and some were “new to the market” - I can put you intouch with the Porsche general manager for major dealership who factually lost panamera sales to the Model S

Tesla both grew the market - and stole sales from the existing market - but at the end of the day they accounted for 25-30% of the Total market once they were there - and no other vendor in that segment ever had 25-30% of that market

from zero to 25% market share for a new entry into an existing market is signficant - and they held that position for about 7 years - this made the other guys sit up and take notice…and their sales sufferred in two ways:

1. they were not capturing the “new” customers to this segement
2. they were losing potential sales and repeat sales due to migration

capturing/creating 25% market share from zero with a inferior product must‘ve driven the other guys aboslutely mad….and we in fact know it did - they in fact have spent billions of dollars attempting to develop products to both capture new entries to the market and stem the bleeding of their existing customers. If porsche didn’t have the Taycan there would still be EV sedan customers and their only choice would be a Model S…

Tesla doesn’t deserve it’s price or it’s market segement - but it did lead sales for that segment for 7 years in North America - and not by a small margin…it was an amazing accomplishment - and even more amazing given all of Tesla’s issues…the issues do not invalidate the accomplishment and fact - the issues make that fact even more amazing - 30% of an entire market bought an inferior product over established brands with long standing entires and just decimated their sales…that’s amazing.

 

[daveo4EV]

What about the Cayenne sales?

Macan is the bread and butter not Cayenne…local dealerships move 3 to 7 Macan’s for every Cayenne

it’s why - again factually - the first EV SUV from Porsche will be the Macan EV - and why Audi did the eTron SUV - Q5/Macan sales are signficant - you’ll see electrification there first…otherwise the $55k Model Y would be stealing people’s lunch boxes and walking away laughing…and to some extend it already is - but there’s hope cause it’s about to no longer be the only kid on the block Mach-E, ID.4, EV Q4, Macan EV promise stiff competition and finally, thankfully, Tesla is no longer the only choice…

Cayenne sales were only marginally affected by the Model S - and the Model X was too delay’d (2017) to have any signficant impact in the high-end SUV market - by 2018 other car companies were responding to Tesla…

Panamera sales were factually impacted - and depending on the region almost entirely evaporated - in 2015 my local dealership sold 80% of their panamera allocation to non-california customers cause you simply couldn’t sell one in the bay area against the Model S.

 

[daveo4EV]

I have checked sales data on EVs. I’ve stated a couple of times in this thread that Tesla’s sales numbers in that time period are insufficient to be the overwhelming factor people claim it is.

you are correct for the entire vehicle market - but if you zoom in by market segment - which is how this stuff is measured - the Model S was 30% of it’s entire market segment (expensive large sedans) from 2013-2018/2019 - now that market overall is insignificant in the auto industry - but in that Segment Tesla dominated - and dominated even with all it’s problems…

it does no good to view Tesla/EV against the entire market - because in North America the pick up market dominates all other markets - Prosche does’t have a pickup truck. does that make the panamera market invalid?

Where ever Tesla enters a market - it dominates

Model S dominated it’s segment - 25-30% total sales for the entire segment 2013-2018/2019
Model 3
Model Y

the industry had to respond and it has and thank god it has.

 

[daveo4EV]

again I’m not arguing TEsla didn’t and doesn’t have problems - and I’m not arguing Tesla deserved it success - I’m simply pointing out the Model S captured 25-30% of the large Sedan market in North America and sales of the other guys products in that market segment dropped significantly for like 7 years…you can shake your head all you want - but it did happen…and then the Model 3 has had simliar success for it’s segment and has been a wildly successful product - even with all the issues it has…

Tesla suceeded despite it’s best efforts - and trust me having been a customer from 2013-2018 they tried really really really hard to fail and yet they have to date been mostly successful…only now in 2021 are there credible alternatives to a Tesla if you want to purchase an EV that isn’t a joke…

there would be no 2020 Taycan in North America if the Model S hadn’t stolen Porsche’s Panamera Lunch box…and Porsche explicitely targeted the Model S in Taycan development to both capture new customers entering this market for the first time and to no longer lose existing customers that wanted an EV alternative…

and despite porsche’s best efforts and pricing - now the Taycan is stealing Panamera sales and even with a product refresh Panamera sales will never recover…when/where there are EV alternatives that are good options the ICE vehicles lose out…

from Porsche’s own sales numbers - Taycan in US seems to be about 3 to 1 vs. Panamera sale - which is about what the Model S did when it was the choice vs. a Panamera…and the Taycan matched Panamera sales in 2020 and Taycan wasn’t even available in quantity for the full year in 2020…

the trend is clear…

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/...a-retail-sales-second-quarter-2021-24978.html

 

[JimBob]

This thread has become a primer on logical fallacies. Quite entertaining.

 

[daveo4EV]

also for the California market (a significant portion of the entire US market) do NOT under-estimate the lure of an HOV car-pool lane sticker.

2014 Model S P85D = HOV carpool lane sticker - weekly savings 5-6 hours less time on the freeway
2014 Panamera/BMW 5 Series = NO HOV carpool sticker…5-6 hours extra time spend commuting weekly…

hmmmmm - I’m in this car every day - one car saves me 5-6 hours a week (true for my 54 mile round trip commute in San Jose area 5 days a week) - the other car is slower 0-60 and leaves me in the other lanes watching Model S’s speed past me every day…hmmmmm - I’m going to buy the one that doesn’t entirely suck and also gives me an HOV sticker…

so no matter how much better the Panamera Interior is vs. the Model S - spending less time in it is the goal - not more time - in 2014/2015/2016 Model S basically wins by default if you’re talking daily commuter vehicle and can save 5-6 hours a week time on the road…that’s huge - across the 4 year ownership period (the duration of hte car pool sticker) thats 48 weeks year * 4 hours week = 192 hours a year or 768 hours total in 4 years of daily driving - 32 days total time NOT spent on the road commuting…

the HOV sticker is a major factor in California - and NONE of the Model S’s competition had an HOV sticker…

is the Panamera’s better handling, interior and superior materials worth 32 days more time spend commuting at 5-40 mph?

 

[JimBob]

please illuminate us with your deep insights - what fallacies do you see? Are the sales figures made up? Did panamera sales not go down?

I’m showing my work - where is yours? All of my assertiions can be tested and validated - can your opinions?

I actually thought you were doing the best job of making your case of anyone.

 

[daveo4EV]

I like your numbers, but it still doesn't proof anything. If the car is that good, why are sales numbers in Norway next to 0, after alternatives came to the market?

So I would need to trust your judgment?

where did I say the Model S was good and would continue to succeed once there was competition? I said it dominated sales until there were alternatives and the Alternatives were developed in response to it kicking ass in the sales department…

people are saying Model S was not a factor in Taycan being brought to market - I’m simply stating the actual sales numbers may tell a different story - understanding that story and the sales data does not require one to also believe the model S was/is better - but between 2013-2018/2019 it was the market leaders for it’s price segment…and to believe that had no influence on Porsche or the others is simply silly.

I’ve never said it was “better” - I said it sold more than anyone else - and sales figured tend to get your competition’s attention…and now we have the Taycan.

 

[f1eng]

• There is NO DOUBT Audi/Porsche sales were impacted negatively by the Model S - they had to respond.

They had to respond. with out the Model S taking 25-30% of market segment sales we would not have had the Taycan in 2020 in the US market…

my local dealer said he couldn’t and still can’t sell a Panamera in the bay area to virtually anyone that has a pulse or any awareness of car market dynamics - the EV market killed his dealership’s Panamera market…

You are extrapolating the North American market to the rest of the world which is wrong.
We would have had the Taycan in the UK whether the Tesla was successful or not.
The "Porsches" strongly affected in the US market and elsewhere is the VW platform which has had the Porsche treatment, the Panamera, and the other "Porsched" VWs the Macan and Cayenne.
I suspect the "real" Porsches, the 911 and 708 have been little effected and the "new" Porsche, the Taycan is them responding to world regulation and demand with the US being, perhaps, a beneficiary too.
For me it will be interesting.
The Taycan is the first real new Porsche since the Boxter. The others were admittedly the lifeline without which Porsche would have been in financial trouble but simply showed the mass market wasn't for sports cars

also for the California market (a significant portion of the entire US market) do NOT under-estimate the lure of an HOV car-pool lane sticker.

Model S P85D = HOV carpool lane sticker - weekly savings 5-6 hours less time on the freeway
Panamera/BMW 5 Series = NO HOV carpool sticker…5-6 hours extra time spend commuting weekly…

hmmmmm - I’m in this car every day - one car saves me 5-6 hours a week (true for my 54 mile round trip commute in San Jose area 5 days a week) - the other car is slower 0-60 and leaves me in the other lanes watching Model S’s speed past me every day…hmmmmm - I’m going to buy the one that doesn’t entirely suck and also gives me an HOV sticker…

so no matter how much better the Panamera Interior is vs. the Model S - spending less time in it is the goal - not more time - in 2014/2015/2016 Model S basically wins by default if you’re talking daily commuter vehicle and can save 5-6 hours a week time on the road…that’s huge - across the 4 year ownership period (the duration of hte car pool sticker) thats 48 weeks year * 4 hours week = 192 hours a year or 768 hours total in 4 years of daily driving - 32 days total time NOT spent on the road commuting…

the HOV sticker is a major factor in California - and NONE of the Model S’s competition had an HOV sticker…

is the Panamera’s better handling, interior and superior materials worth 32 days more time spend commuting at 5-40 mph?

Yes, but what you describe here is a tiny microcosm of one part of one country which doesn't extrapolate at all to most of the World at all.

 

[f1eng]

people are saying Model S was not a factor in Taycan being brought to market - I’m simply stating the actual sales numbers may tell a different story

I’ve never said it was “better” - I said it sold more than anyone else - and sales figured tend to get your competition’s attention…and now we have the Taycan.

More extrapolation of a tiny part of the world market and drawing, dodgy conclusions about a foreign manufacturer based on your domestic market.
I don't doubt what you write about the US market, which is very rich and therefore important, but the conclusion you draw about it being the reason for the existence of other foreign cars is a non-sequitur.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Porsche sold 5600 Panameras in China the first quarter of 2021. From what my sales rep told me they sell for a lot more $ there than in the USA. While buying my car they actually had a long wheelbase Panamera that I had no idea existed. It is used sort of like a limo in China.

 

[daveo4EV]

You are extrapolating the North American market to the rest of the world which is wrong.
We would have had the Taycan in the UK whether the Tesla was successful or not.
The "Porsches" strongly affected in the US market and elsewhere is the VW platform which has had the Porsche treatment, the Panamera, and the other "Porsched" VWs the Macan and Cayenne.
I suspect the "real" Porsches, the 911 and 708 have been little effected and the "new" Porsche, the Taycan is them responding to world regulation and demand with the US being, perhaps, a beneficiary too.
For me it will be interesting.
The Taycan is the first real new Porsche since the Boxter. The others were admittedly the lifeline without which Porsche would have been in financial trouble but simply showed the mass market wasn't for sports cars

Yes, but what you describe here is a tiny microcosm of one part of one country which doesn't extrapolate at all to most of the World at all.

the California Economy is like the 5th largest economy in the world if you measure it as separate country - it’s not a tiny microcosm - it’s in fact bigger than the entire UK economy - and therefore it’s sales volumes and revenues are conmensuratly also large and influential - the combination of Tesla Success, looming regulations, and actual lost sales lead to the Taycan - but when you start losing market share for 7 years in a row in the 5th largest economy in the world it’s a wake up call that you might need to change your product mix.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...onomy at,of 40 million to the UK's 66 million.

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