Tesla admits FSD is a pipe dream

andrewket

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Is it?

1630235735902.png


Is there something brewing in the US after this accident?
Tesla’s manual clearly calls out that it may not detect stationary objects and that drivers need to stay attentive. Tesla’s autopilot is not an autonomous driving capability, it’s a driver’s aide just like Porsche innodrive. The fault is with the driver. Americans love to blame everyone other than themselves.

Should Tesla do more here? I think so. The most obvious is to disable autopilot when it detects the strobes lights on emergency vehicles after warning the driver to take over.
 

JimBob

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Tesla’s manual clearly calls out that it may not detect stationary objects and that drivers need to stay attentive. Tesla’s autopilot is not an autonomous driving capability, it’s a driver’s aide just like Porsche innodrive. The fault is with the driver. Americans love to blame everyone other than themselves.

Should Tesla do more here? I think so. The most obvious is to disable autopilot when it detects the strobes lights on emergency vehicles after warning the driver to take over.
You have a problem here. This stuff is already out there and some people just trust it, or abuse it, or don't know how to use it properly because they think it's fool proof or they're just too lazy to learn how to use it. Remember nobody reads manuals they just learn the facts from a YouTube video from some influencer.
 

feye

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You have a problem here. This stuff is already out there and some people just trust it, or abuse it, or don't know how to use it properly because they think it's fool proof or they're just too lazy to learn how to use it. Remember nobody reads manuals they just learn the facts from a YouTube video from some influencer.
I agree. Since there are a lot of fanboys, who actually believe FSD is a reality, I follow these kind of news, because it affects my safety on the roads.
 

JimBob

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Just thinking that it's easy to criticize but difficult to come up with solutions. The need to bring this technology on remains. So here's mine.

A recognition that what currently purports to be FSD can be dangerous in its current state.

So require everyone who wants to use FSD (TBD) to take and pass a Driver's ED course in FSD and prove they have before it can be turned on in the car. That's just a little additional tech.

To catch the cheaters like allowing the kids or anyone else to drive the car who hasn't passed the test, the owner of the car becomes liable in addition to the driver.

You want to fly an airplane, you need a license, why not the same to use some pretty fancy tech.
 

kreshi

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I don’t agree.
It is being sold as FULL SELF DRIVING and AUTOPILOT. These are the terms used by Tesla. Elon has been saying for years how a person does not have to pay attention anymore at all. This is 100% deception of the customers. You cannot sell something and say „this will cure all of your diseases” and write somewhere down in the manual “99% of diseases are unaffected”. People get their info from TV and internet, not really thinking for themselves. Yes they are at fault too, but the majority of it comes from the false propaganda of Tesla and all the news sites/tv shows that just blindly repeat their crap.
 


Needsdecaf

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I don’t agree.
It is being sold as FULL SELF DRIVING and AUTOPILOT. These are the terms used by Tesla. Elon has been saying for years how a person does not have to pay attention anymore at all. This is 100% deception of the customers. You cannot sell something and say „this will cure all of your diseases” and write somewhere down in the manual “99% of diseases are unaffected”. People get their info from TV and internet, not really thinking for themselves. Yes they are at fault too, but the majority of it comes from the false propaganda of Tesla and all the news sites/tv shows that just blindly repeat their crap.
Elon hasn't really been saying that. He's been saying it's coming. But he hasn't said it's here.

Having said that, I do hope Tesla gets slapped around for deceptive marketing practices. Because they clearly tell you one thing in the manual, but don't do anything to actually restrict it. Because they want you to do it so they get the data.
 

manitou202

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Regardless of what the manual states or Tesla claims, if Autopilot is creating bad behaviors, and is unable to detect and stop for parked emergency vehicles, it should be investigated.

This is part of the problem with Autopilot. It creates a false sense of security and control, thus creating lazy drivers. It also doesn't look good that Autopilot is unable to stop for parked emergency vehicles.

The solution is probably a combination of fixing autopilot to detect these vehicles, and better driver monitoring so it prevents user from abusing the system.

If Tesla releases FSD to all of their vehicles, get the popcorn ready. My prediction is it will be a huge mess. Tons of people will abuse FSD and many accidents will occur as a result.
 

Needsdecaf

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Regardless of what the manual states or Tesla claims, if Autopilot is creating bad behaviors, and is unable to detect and stop for parked emergency vehicles, it should be investigated.

This is part of the problem with Autopilot. It creates a false sense of security and control, thus creating lazy drivers. It also doesn't look good that Autopilot is unable to stop for parked emergency vehicles.

The solution is probably a combination of fixing autopilot to detect these vehicles, and better driver monitoring so it prevents user from abusing the system.

If Tesla releases FSD to all of their vehicles, get the popcorn ready. My prediction is it will be a huge mess. Tons of people will abuse FSD and many accidents will occur as a result.
Tesla has now realized they cannot release FSD to the public anytime soon. The Fanboys are clamoring, begging, to be added to the FSD CityStreets Beta list, but Tesla has not allowed it. Because they know what would happen.

But to expand upon your point. Ford's Blue Cruise is just about ready for widespread roll out and GM's Super Cruise is out there, and going to be rapidly expanded. Both of these have the same problem that ALL advanced Level 2 ADAS systems have. They lull the driver into a false sense of security even though the driver is supposed to be an active part of the monitoring system. The biggest difference with the systems is in the driver monitoring, in that the steering wheel sensors are pretty easy to keep engaged by pulling or flicking buttons while not maintaining that much attention to the road. Whereas the eye tracking of Ford / GM (and BMW and Mercedes) is a little more apt to get you to pay attention.

I guess my point is that Tesla's system encourages more bad behavior but really it's more of a systemic problem than a manufacturer specific one.
 


feye

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Elon hasn't really been saying that. He's been saying it's coming. But he hasn't said it's here.
What did he say, when he sold robotaxis and claiming financial insanity not buying T?

He basically told me, I am a lunatic for buying a Taycan. :CWL:
 

feye

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But to expand upon your point. Ford's Blue Cruise is just about ready for widespread roll out and GM's Super Cruise is out there, and going to be rapidly expanded.
Well, let's see how these systems are advertised and how they work.

Same for EQS, which can do Level 3 in very restricted situations. Lower speeds on highways. They are very careful explaining the limitations very clearly. Eager to test drive it...
 

whitex

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I don’t agree.
It is being sold as FULL SELF DRIVING and AUTOPILOT. These are the terms used by Tesla. Elon has been saying for years how a person does not have to pay attention anymore at all. This is 100% deception of the customers. You cannot sell something and say „this will cure all of your diseases” and write somewhere down in the manual “99% of diseases are unaffected”. People get their info from TV and internet, not really thinking for themselves. Yes they are at fault too, but the majority of it comes from the false propaganda of Tesla and all the news sites/tv shows that just blindly repeat their crap.
You have to pay close attention to what Elon actually says. For example, when the Model S P85D came out in 2014, Elon called it a "700hp car" and Tesla listed the "motor power" at 691hp. A few years later, after a lawsuit, Tesla finally admitted that the battery limits (including a fuse) the power to 463hp (would need 50% more power to reach the advertised number!) but still claimed that they are in the clear legally, because those same motors theoretically could produce 691hp if they were connected to a different battery and inverter. They didn't care about admitting it at that point because P85D was no longer on sale, they had P100D by then, which did produce ~700hp peak, so the admission did not hurt new car sales. Welcome to Tesla marketing! I bet you will not find anywhere Elon saying FSD is already at any level above L2+. He did a number of times promised Level 5 soon, even a cost-to-coast Level 5 demonstration promise by end of 2017 for example, but it never happened, however the gullible public who heard him promise it in 2016 assumed that it must have already happened, since we are so far past end of 2017. But, Elon never claimed it's done, always "future looking statements" with no guarantees. Sometimes he even shows fake videos (like a Level 5 FSD video in 2016, which obviously was fake since even the current 2021 FSD doesn't handle everything that video showed), but again, the video had a disclaimer that nobody knows when this will actually be able to be given to customers, because it needs software validation and regulatory approvals (implying, but not stating, that it was almost done in 2016). Welcome to Elon marketing - taking car salesman stereotype into the 21st century.
 

atebit

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Just like there are 12 types of Cylons, there are five levels of autonomous driving. To me, the term “Full Self Driving” implies capabilities up to Level 5. Tesla says their current cars already have the hardware to do this.

I believe getting past Level 2 will require Smart roadways that communicate traffic, control, hazard, surface conditions (road temperature is usually significantly different than air temperature), etc. to autonomous vehicles. Vehicles may also have to communicate with each other at that level…who knows?

My point is that all those systems are still in heavy R&D right now, with several competing protocols, etc., so I don’t see how Tesla vehicles can have “all the hardware”.
 
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Needsdecaf

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What did he say, when he sold robotaxis and claiming financial insanity not buying T?

He basically told me, I am a lunatic for buying a Taycan. :CWL:
He has always been very careful to say "it's coming". "By the end of the year". "Feature complete". "Next quarter". Always in the future. He's been very careful not to say "you can do this today".

But all the sheep buy his lines. Your car is an appreciating asset because you'll be able to use it as a robotaxi? Give me a freaking break. I can't believe there are educated adults with enough money to buy a Tesla that actually believe that BS.

It's sad. If he would just STFU and let the cars be sold, the company wouldn't be nearly as polarizing and people would focus that the cars are decent. Way better than any Camcord / 3 Series / C Class / A4 for daily driving duties.

I would propose that any car today sold with a turbo 4 Cylinder would be better with a Tesla drivetrain. The only reason I could see to get one would be if your lifestyle makes it difficult / impossible to have an EV (i.e. no access to home charging).
 

Needsdecaf

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Just like there are 12 types of Cylons, there are five levels of autonomous driving. To me, the term “Full Self Driving” implies capabilities up to Level 5. Tesla says their current cars already have the hardware to do this.

I believe getting past Level 2 will require Smart roadways that communicate traffic, control, hazard, surface conditions (road temperature is usually significantly different than air temperature), etc. to autonomous vehicles. Vehicles may also have to communicate with each other at that level…who knows?

Must point is that all those systems are still in heavy R&D right now, with several competing protocols, etc., so I don’t see how Tesla vehicles can have “all the hardware”.
I would advise ANYONE that is remotely interested in really learning the state of Autonomous driving to actually go onto the SAE website, sign up for a free account, and download the J3016 definition. The article you linked actually does a good job of breaking things down, and also uses the SAE's own chart. But really, there are still some things that they get wrong. So if you really want to understand, I suggest you download the doc.

Warning, you will need a clear head, a big cup of coffee, and a lot of patience to get through it. Don't say I didn't warn you.

You REALLY need to get into the technical definitions in order to truly understand what L2, L3, etc. are. Warning, again, this is very dry, technical, specific definintions. But it's worth it if you truly want to have a real understanding of what L2, L3, L4 means.

To your point, L3 is already here. Audi has it, and I believe Mercedes does too. But it's currently not legal to run in the EU. The hardware can support it, but it's not legal. It's not as difficult to jump from L2 to L3 technically, because L3, by definition, operates under limited scenarios. Those limitations are up to the manufacturer. So they can state that L3 is only operational on divided highways and at speeds below 80 kph or whatever they decide and that fits the definition of L3. That's actually the best case scenario; Use it to be completely hands off / eyes off in a traffic jam.

Here's why L3 and above is going to be problematic to implement: liability. SAE defines L3 and above as having the DDT (Dynamic Driving Task) as being done by the system. And the person sitting in the passenger seat is not a driver, but is the "fallback ready user" and must be able to take over when the ADAS system request. So unless the ADAS system recognizes either a "DDT performance-relevant system failure" or "Operational Design Domain (ODD) exit" and requests that the "fallback ready user achieve a minimal risk condition", then the vehicle is technically in charge.

See, I told you that this was a bunch of definitions.

But the long and short of it is that if the vehicle is technically in charge, now an operator can legitimately use the excuse of "it was the car's fault". Whereas in the case of all these Teslas plowing into parked vehicles, Tesla could very easily turn around and say "we told you multiple times you had to monitor the situation and be ready to take over at a second's notice", now the owner can say "I didn't have to pay attention until you asked me to, and you never asked me to". And now the legal quagmire begins.

So, L2 will continue to get better and better (AutoPilot, Super Cruise, Blue Cruise, etc.) and work in more and more areas and we'll be stuck there until manufacturers are willing to take on liability.
 
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XLR82XS

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They way most people drive today I think FSD should NEVER happen. It's bad enough people, especially teens, do everything behind the wheel except drive!

Social media posting/reading, texting, facetime, eating, make-up application, etc... Idiocracy is upon us and it's getting worse.
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