Would you lease a Turbo S?

[jkjjpc]

Try:

https://leasehackr.com/calculator

The general idea (not porsche specific), is you want to be around 10 years on the lease hacker score for it to be a good lease deal. While Porsche recently lowered the finance rates and improved the residual on the Taycan, they still don't lease too well (esp if compared to BMW let say).

Below is a lease I got on a $157k BMW M8 for example:

https://leasehackr.com/calculator?make=BMW&miles=7500&msd=7&msrp=157195&sales_price=120883&months=36&mf=.00082&dp=0&dealer_fee=699&acq_fee=925&taxed_inc=0&untaxed_inc=0&rebate=0&resP=54&reg_fee=400&sales_tax=7.025&demo_mileage=0&memo=&acqFee_check=true&totalLeaseTax_radio=true


Monthly Payment with Tax: $1,111

I too have had very good experiences with leasing BMWs, with high residuals, low MF, and the abitliy to further reduce the MF with refundable MSDs. When I enter the potential lease data into the LeaseHackr calculator for the 4S I have on order, even with a 7% discount off MSRP and factoring in the $7500 tax credit as a capital cost reduction, the LeaseHackr score is only 6.7 years, well below the target of 10 years. My general inclination would be to lease an EV due to rapidly changing technology and uncertain resale value, but I will need to do some modeling to sort out the best financial option. An oddity for buying an EV registered in DC is that for a purchase there is no sales tax, a huge savings in the Taycan price range, but for a lease there is no tax break and the monthly tax is 10% of the lease payment. So, a Taycan lease is unfavorable not only based on the current 4.8% interest rate and low residual value, but carries an added tax disincentive.

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[amelen]

I too have had very good experiences with leasing BMWs, with high residuals, low MF, and the abitliy to further reduce the MF with refundable MSDs. When I enter the potential lease data into the LeaseHackr calculator for the 4S I have on order, even with a 7% discount off MSRP and factoring in the $7500 tax credit as a capital cost reduction, the LeaseHackr score is only 6.7 years, well below the target of 10 years. My general inclination would be to lease an EV due to rapidly changing technology and uncertain resale value, but I will need to do some modeling to sort out the best financial option. An oddity for buying an EV registered in DC is that for a purchase there is no sales tax, a huge savings in the Taycan price range, but for a lease there is no tax break and the monthly tax is 10% of the lease payment. So, a Taycan lease is unfavorable not only based on the current 4.8% interest rate and low residual value, but carries an added tax disincentive.

My gut-feel on this is to finance/buy. Even with Porsche's revised leasing numbers, they are still figuring a worst-case-scenario for depreciation.

NJ is no sales tax for EV's either btw. If I knew I was getting a Taycan to begin with, I would have private-party sold my previous car - but I was doing a 911 order before changing my mind for the Taycan.

 

[jkjjpc]

My gut-feel on this is to finance/buy. Even with Porsche's revised leasing numbers, they are still figuring a worst-case-scenario for depreciation.

Yes, a cash purchase is probably overall the least expensive option, no finance charges and no DC sales tax. While the cash could be earning a return if invested, given today's low rates of return on safe investments, it is unlikely it would offset even the low APR available for new car loans (<2.5%). The main risk is the unknown of resale value at some point in the future when new technology leads me to want a new car. But, the combined savings over leasing or financing provide a pretty good cushion to at least break even, unless the resale value tanks.

 

[chrisk]

unless the resale value tanks.

Which is not unlikely given that many performance EVs are going to be released soon including:

• Audi etron Gt
• new Tesla Model S
• Tesla Roadster
• Mustang Gt
• Lucid
• BMW i4,
• BMW X3 EV
• Macan EV
• maybe a refreshed Taycan

The other factor is the unknown Taycan's reliability. In my opinion, the early signs of numerous software bugs, and various issues are not encouraging.

 

[Miwa]

I too have had very good experiences with leasing BMWs, with high residuals, low MF, and the abitliy to further reduce the MF with refundable MSDs.

BMW heavily incentivizes leases, as they like to get back lease returns to sell as CPO cars. Porsche has MRM, so it's easy to get a spectacularly bad lease deal from Porsche.

 

[loopsandsounds]

I went through the “do I lease” debate on Turbo vs 4S, ended up with 4S as it has a better residual. It looks like the Turbo S is actually the worst lease option. I.e you are “buying” more than half the cars value on a standard 36 month lease. I typically don’t lease but didn’t want to own a 1st gen EV, so worked out a good lease deal on a 2020 4S and planned on the pull ahead in 24 months to see where Porsche ends up in 2023. If you lease a Turbo S you might consider buying the car and flipping it at lease end if there is a market for 90K Turbo S’s in 3 years. I wasn’t willing to take that bet...

 

[jkjjpc]

At current Porsche lease rates for a 4S (55% residual for 36 mo/7500 miles and 0.002 MF) I estimate that the resale at the end of 3 years would need to be less than 45% of MSRP for the lease option to be the better deal versus buying in cash (not counting any return on investment of the money not spent up front on purchase to keep things simple). This also does not factor in a decision on whether to apply PPF/ceramic to protect the paint on the car. I’m not so inclined to do that if the car Is leased.

Of course, hard to predict resale three years out for a first generation EV with so many new ones coming to market in next several years, including improved range and technology. I will make my decision when the car arrives in April or May, hoping the Porsche lease rates may improve by then. A big part of me says to let Porsche take the risk on residual and plan to move to a new vehicle in three years. The equation is not just about dollars, it also includes risk tolerance and the ease of walking away to a new car.

I do miss those great BMW lease deals........

 

[Mr.Smith]

I've been on the sidelines waiting for the revised lease terms for the Taycan.
Biggest factor is the residual. If they get the Turbo over 55%, that would be ideal. Turbo S just won't lease well.
I treat all EVs like Cell phones so I want to have a hedge in place by leasing.

Turbo S would be a better used car purchase in the future to take advantage of the massive depreciation.

Porsche is assuming all the variants will be worth the same at the end of term because the secondary market doesn't pay for upgrades. A Turbo, Turbo S would be considered upgrades to a 4s

Those BMW deals are due to high residuals, but BMW just eats that loss at the end of the term. Porsche doesn't operate that way.

 

[Vim Schrotnock]

I am certainly in the minority here, but I'm planning on keeping my Turbo S for 5-6 years. I've had a V10M5 (one of the first in Ohio) and drove it for over 100K miles, and a Panamera GTS (FIO as well) and drove that over 100K miles, and my Turbo S is one of the FIO as well. I have certainly spent a number of hours at my favorite place due to the FIO status of these cars, but I wouldn't trade it for waiting.

I'm not planning on getting much for my car upon trade-in, say maybe $50K. That would mean I've paid $200K to drive my car for some 70 months, or around $3K/month. I purchased the 5 year 100K warranty and a great wheel/tire warrantee from my dealer, so I should be in good shape in terms of 'surprises'. I'm not worried about my car being 'obsolete' any more than my previous cars. Plus I like the idea of having a car that I love and know for 5-6 years.

I think this scenario makes economic sense, but haven't really analyzed it.

 

[Torv]

That seems like a high monthly to me. It works out to over $131K over 36 months. Add the $6500 drive off and the residual of $91K, you're into it for $228K which does not strike me as Walnut Creek doing you any favors to basically "rent" a car for 3 years with 0 equity.

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