Odds Tesla adds Taycan upgrade to Model S before Porsche production ram

gwestr

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We all know Tesla is the leanest manufacturing program in the world, updating the line hundreds of times a day — with no concept of “model years” corresponding to product design/features. Porsche, like everyone, is going to have a very difficult time scaling the Taycan to 500 cars produced a week. In fact in may be impossible because they’re not vertically integrated. There are many reports of the Audi E-Tron factory going down to 3 shifts of week and idling the plant.

So while we’re all patiently waiting for our 2021-2022 Taycans to be built, the madman Elon Musk could tell his engineers to do whatever it takes to make the 2020 Model S “Track Performance” be the Taycan killer at area racetracks. They could go to a 3 motor setup with rear torque vectoring. Improve the thermal management and cooling. Offer a factory carbon ceramic option. Put in the dynamic swaybar system. Use 305 width “cheater tires”. Essentially copy every trick the Porsche is using, but do it in 6 months and ship in April before Porsche can even fill a boat with customer cars and get it through customs. Most of these systems would be things he has in mind for the Roadster, but no chassis to build it on yet.

I for one welcome the EV performance arms race!
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We all know Tesla is the leanest manufacturing program in the world, updating the line hundreds of times a day — with no concept of “model years” corresponding to product design/features. Porsche, like everyone, is going to have a very difficult time scaling the Taycan to 500 cars produced a week. In fact in may be impossible because they’re not vertically integrated. There are many reports of the Audi E-Tron factory going down to 3 shifts of week and idling the plant.

So while we’re all patiently waiting for our 2021-2022 Taycans to be built, the madman Elon Musk could tell his engineers to do whatever it takes to make the 2020 Model S “Track Performance” be the Taycan killer at area racetracks. They could go to a 3 motor setup with rear torque vectoring. Improve the thermal management and cooling. Offer a factory carbon ceramic option. Put in the dynamic swaybar system. Use 305 width “cheater tires”. Essentially copy every trick the Porsche is using, but do it in 6 months and ship in April before Porsche can even fill a boat with customer cars and get it through customs. Most of these systems would be things he has in mind for the Roadster, but no chassis to build it on yet.

I for one welcome the EV performance arms race!
I think you’re mixing up a few topics here. Porsche is not a high-volume manufacturer. I think last year, which was their best, they shipped ~250K cars. They’re building the Taycan in Zuffenhausen, which is the plant that produces their two-door sports cars, which are all very low volume. They’ve stated that they might be able to push production of the Taycan sedan and the Taycan Cross Turismo to 40,000 a year at some point in the future, so they’re clearly not going for the same volume that Tesla is, and they haven’t announced a car that competes with the Model 3 price-wise. They recently published an article about the new manufacturing capability here: https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/201...albrecht-reimold-production-taycan-18308.html

Remember, Porsche and Tesla value different things, and that’s ok. Tesla is willing to build cars in tents with volunteers and Porsche is not. Tesla was started with a mission to bring electric mobility to the masses, Porsche was not. Porsche spent about three years testing the Taycan, while Tesla was public about skipping such testing to get the Model 3 out as quickly as possible. Everyone is looking for this showdown between the two companies, which I think is pointless.

In terms of the performance stuff, I have no doubt that the Tesla engineering team could ship some OTAs to improve performance and add a bunch of upgraded parts. However, Porsche has never been about straight-line performance. My 8 year-old 911 can get dusted by a Dodge Hellcat costing much less, but it’s nowhere near the driver’s car. I totally agree with you that competition is good. What I find interesting is that it’s generally the Tesla folks bringing up the topic. I think Tesla’s are great and almost bought one a few years ago, but this notion that there’s an arms race is kinda silly.
 
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gwestr

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Firstly, volunteers can’t work for free at an OHSA regulated factory. Security at Tesla is super tight. My car had final assembly in a temporary building in August 2018 and it has fewer defects than my new 2006 BMW or new 2016 Porsche (new 2010 Audi was flawless also).

To say the Model 3 is only straight line performance is highly disingenuous. It can lap Laguna faster than any production ICE sedan. And it does it with no drama, really easy to coax around, and novices can achieve it (similar to someone driving a 991 GT3 with computers keeping the rear engine in its place).

The Taycan fixes everything that was WRONG about the Panamera gen1 and gen2. It’s finally a nice looking car.

People really jumped on Tesla for taking 24 months to build 5000 cars a week. It’s going to take Porsche 36 months to build 500 cars a week. People don’t have an appreciation for scale. There will be a lot of demand for Taycan, similar to Model S/X.

Lastly, let’s not make assumptions about Porsche being a “small niche manufacturer”. They have some niche products that meet small markets, like 911 and 718. When they started selling SUVs, the company tripled in size. And now that they’re selling VW Group’s only viable EV, they could make 100,000 of these a year in the two form factors.
 

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We all know Tesla is the leanest manufacturing program in the world, updating the line hundreds of times a day — with no concept of “model years” corresponding to product design/features. Porsche, like everyone, is going to have a very difficult time scaling the Taycan to 500 cars produced a week. In fact in may be impossible because they’re not vertically integrated. There are many reports of the Audi E-Tron factory going down to 3 shifts of week and idling the plant.

So while we’re all patiently waiting for our 2021-2022 Taycans to be built, the madman Elon Musk could tell his engineers to do whatever it takes to make the 2020 Model S “Track Performance” be the Taycan killer at area racetracks. They could go to a 3 motor setup with rear torque vectoring. Improve the thermal management and cooling. Offer a factory carbon ceramic option. Put in the dynamic swaybar system. Use 305 width “cheater tires”. Essentially copy every trick the Porsche is using, but do it in 6 months and ship in April before Porsche can even fill a boat with customer cars and get it through customs. Most of these systems would be things he has in mind for the Roadster, but no chassis to build it on yet.

I for one welcome the EV performance arms race!
Porsche has two factory lines ready and anticipates making 40,000 cars in the next 12 months. They’ll hit 80% of Tesla’s peak model S production immediately. This is an area of vast competitive advantage for the VW group. Largely at the expensive of less advanced battery tech.

I thought for sure Tesla would sandbag the Taycan intro event. But Elon has repeatedly said there are no plans to update the model S this year beyond the June revision. It’s possible Elon is just as surprised as Porsche by how much attention the taycan has received and Tesla is already stretched too thin with their current projects which are much more important. Maybe.
 
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gwestr

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Porsche has two factory lines ready and anticipates making 40,000 cars in the next 12 months. They’ll hit 80% of Tesla’s peak model S production immediately. This is an area of vast competitive advantage for the VW group. Largely at the expensive of less advanced battery tech.

I thought for sure Tesla would sandbag the Taycan intro event. But Elon has repeatedly said there are no plans to update the model S this year beyond the June revision. It’s possible Elon is just as surprised as Porsche by how much attention the taycan has received and Tesla is already stretched too thin with their current projects which are much more important. Maybe.
That was sort of my point. They could start Model S changes next year and ship before Porsche can get the first boat here.

Where are they getting the batteries from? That is the main constraint on global EV production. Tesla would build 600,000 cars this year if they had 600,000 batteries of capacity. They’re maxed out.
 


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That was sort of my point. They could start Model S changes next year and ship before Porsche can get the first boat here.

Where are they getting the batteries from? That is the main constraint on global EV production. Tesla would build 600,000 cars this year if they had 600,000 batteries of capacity. They’re maxed out.
Porsche has stated the first cars will arrive in 2019. I’m guessing like New Year’s Eve. There isn’t time to make a radical change to the model S. Just testing the production changes alone would likely take too long. Unless Elon has been ... fibbing and they were working on a new design all year as some leaks suggested / wished for this spring. so it’s possible, but only if you think Elon’s tweets as recently as July are intentionally misleading. I’m not sure how to reconcile that. It’s possible Tesla is simply more focused on the model 3 expansions abroad and the model Y. That would be the right call for the company, but kinda sucks for a sports car enthusiast.

it does mean Tesla losing some of its most profitable customers. And they’ve already cut model S prices more than 20% this year. The model 3 is amazing, but the model S is languishing.

it’s also possible, although I think unlikely Tesla tries to sandbag the taycan intro with a roadster update instead of a model S update. Since this won’t ship until very late 2020, probably more 2021, and they’ve said they’ll keep production under 10,000 I don’t think this is likely.

Ps Porsche gets its batteries from LG Chem. Tesla, currently, from Panasonic, moving to home brew.
 

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We all know Tesla is the leanest manufacturing program in the world, updating the line hundreds of times a day — with no concept of “model years” corresponding to product design/features. Porsche, like everyone, is going to have a very difficult time scaling the Taycan to 500 cars produced a week. In fact in may be impossible because they’re not vertically integrated.
I for one welcome the EV performance arms race!
Are you 15 years old and talking about Daddy's car?

Start reading your posts from an objective point of view, rather than the of a child. When you write the way you do, people are only laughing at you. I think it is not even sure it is worth responding to your posts. I feel like I am talking to my nephew that doesn't yet have clear understanding of reality. and the business world The intent of a forum like this would be to share information and discuss something intelligently

I am a huge Tesla fan, and have incredible admiration for Elon Musk. And plan to buy a Tesla exactly what it is desing for, and every day car. But i stay objective and look at the positive aspects of Tesla as company and its cars, but also look at its negative points without becoming defensive, just as with Porsche. I coming from a family of scientists, so facts only please, not hyperbolies, exaggerations, subjectivity and downright incorrect information
 

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That was sort of my point. They could start Model S changes next year and ship before Porsche can get the first boat here.

Where are they getting the batteries from? That is the main constraint on global EV production. Tesla would build 600,000 cars this year if they had 600,000 batteries of capacity. They’re maxed out.
The fact that Tesla updates production continuously is neither exclusive to them (all manufacturers do this - they just distinguish between production and design updates) nor does it mean they can just skip design and, yes, also testing. You can't just say - hey cool, let's add that tomorrow to our car. Not even Elon.

Your posts read like a lot of wishful thinking.
 


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Are you 15 years old and talking about Daddy's car?

Start reading your posts from an objective point of view, rather than the of a child. When you write the way you do, people are only laughing at you. I think it is not even sure it is worth responding to your posts. I feel like I am talking to my nephew that doesn't yet have clear understanding of reality. and the business world The intent of a forum like this would be to share information and discuss something intelligently

I am a huge Tesla fan, and have incredible admiration for Elon Musk. And plan to buy a Tesla exactly what it is desing for, and every day car. But i stay objective and look at the positive aspects of Tesla as company and its cars, but also look at its negative points without becoming defensive, just as with Porsche. I coming from a family of scientists, so facts only please, not hyperbolies, exaggerations, subjectivity and downright incorrect information
Oh, do you know a place where I can read some accurate information about Telsa? I couldn’t find any on the Internet. Would love it if you knew some good library books.

Anonymous forums are a place for very serious dissemination, like a government memo. I am sorry I breached the protocol! If you have ZERO sense of humor, you don’t need to post in my threads or even read them!
 
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The fact that Tesla updates production continuously is neither exclusive to them (all manufacturers do this - they just distinguish between production and design updates) nor does it mean they can just skip design and, yes, also testing. You can't just say - hey cool, let's add that tomorrow to our car. Not even Elon.

Your posts read like a lot of wishful thinking.
Surely you understand the difference between a parts revision, and making all suppliers and engineering teams adhere to a 3 year waterfall on new features. That’s why every screen in every car EXCEPT Tesla feels like an ATM from 1999. When we’re talking about a car whose main feature is systems not pistons, a learner approach to delivery is needed. It might be the biggest thing that holds Porsche back, or lets Tesla counter at light speed.
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