Taycan real world Range

Discussion in 'General Topics' started by Nevadagame, Jun 19, 2019.

  1. charliemathilde

    charliemathilde Well-Known Member

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    a lot of the wiring changes in the model 3 and Y are to make the car faster and cheaper to manufacture. They’re far more advanced than the model S. That doesn’t necessarily translate into anything meaningful to customers. But I am a big fan of any operational improvements to keep them in business. Their Achilles heel and one of the few competitive advantages VW group has. I expect Porsche to produce more vehicles more easily at vastly higher build quality than the Model S.
     
  2. gwestr

    gwestr Active Member

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    Keep them in business? They have the top selling car in America. 1 sedan sells more than all BMWs combined.

    It’s the legacy manufacturers that are going to struggle to stay in business. Any tech company can build a car now, and probably a better one than 99% of cars sold today. The only reason we’re here talking is the $150k Taycan is blending the new and old world, but not at a consumer level. This is the height of 1% of 1% enthusiasm.

    The problem is these companies are all diesel first, with an EV side business. None of them has killed all ICE R&D. They have soft promises like “eh maybe we will stop in 2040”.
     
  3. charliemathilde

    charliemathilde Well-Known Member

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    tesla has done an astounding job. But they have serious manufacturing and operational issues, and an extremely large amount of corporate debt exacerbated by frequent and large quarterly losses. Without sufficient capital and margins, they are definitely at risk as a business. Elon said himself they were on track to go bankrupt next year. Wtf ? Anyway. I don’t believe that, the markets will buy more Tesla bonds to fund them via debt. But that music can only play so long. It’s not yet a sustainable business.

    Once they resolve that, they need to face a world where their growth has been stymied by their debt and inability to manufacture cars faster. Demand outstrips their supply. Tesla tech is several years ahead of the industry. But they are on track to give that time back to their competitors. Porsche looks serious about stealing their most profitable customers.
     
  4. Ron R

    Ron R Well-Known Member

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    I think you're spot on with your assessment of Tesla, in particular your comment of them not currently being a sustainable business. Things will only get tougher for them now that the largest car manufacturer on the planet is moving full-force into EVs. My impression is Musk's goal for Tesla was to move the world away from ICE vehicles to EVs, which I think he has done. It will be interesting to see what's Tesla's role in the automotive world will be now that this transition has started.
     
  5. gwestr

    gwestr Active Member

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    Honestly I can’t imagine how Detroit is sustainable. Tesla creates controversy, which creates bad press. But doing things like giving a generation of workers healthcare for life is not sustainable. Selling cars with emissions is a liability forever that you can be repeatedly sued for. Selling 15 MPG SUV and trucks is not sustainable. Stuffing the channel with 9 months of said cars and counting them as “sold” at the manufacturer is crazy. Selling cars and then not knowing who your customer is for the next 20 years is insane, or where the car is, or if any of the dozens of recall fixes have been applied.

    Tesla is the most sustainable automaker of the 21st century. Selling the car is just the start of the revenue stream. They have my damn credit card on file. They have the “third screen” in my car and can sell me stuff from it. They have the next iTunes on their hands. And they have a monopoly on batteries and charging. If you’re stuffing and ICE car with LG batteries you are screwed.

    Elon is one of the only auto CEOs who is not in jail or fired. And yeah he could get fired. But if even 1 of 100 businesses inside Tesla pan out, they will be insane monopolies categoric of silicon valley.
     
  6. Paulo

    Paulo Well-Known Member

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    Maybe we shoud call Porsche, Ocp and Robocop to "figure out" the problem!
     
  7. newreef77

    newreef77 Well-Known Member

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    Really sorry, but all the discussion now is that some have to prove that their c..k is bigger than the other ones.
    Tesla is fine, ok. EV also in some special conditions. Also ICE have their (long distance ) adventures,....
    So the hole private transport has to be redesigned to solve the actual problems. There is no Black and White.....
    And to be honest if some presidents think of coal as a good sustainable solution to produce electricity, tesla and EV charging is never green.
     
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  8. gwestr

    gwestr Active Member

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    Central power plants running at high efficiency, even if powered by coal, are better than vehicle-local engines. It’s basic, back-of-the-envelope math. Once you stick liquid fuel in car, you’ve already lost. The best argument is we can power all of our national transportation with the electricity we use to crack a barrel of oil into gasoline, diesel, and distillates. And that’s without burning it! We use over 3% of the nation’s energy to refine petroleum. Think about that. Just consider that an oil fired power plant (we don’t really use these any more) could make 50 cars go as far as the liquid fuel would power 5 cars.

    And somehow we’re all out to “get Elon” while talking a big game on how we believe in climate change (but aren’t ready to take climate action because the technology isn’t ready). Uh huh.
     
  9. Friedrich

    Friedrich Well-Known Member

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    #99 Friedrich, Aug 30, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
    My advice is calm down with your overdrawn enthusiasm....when you become overzealous, hyperbolic and subjective if not factually incorrect with your statements, you loose all your credibility and people laugh at your posts rather than reading them, reflecting on your points and getting informed which should be the intent of forums. I am also SUPER enthusiastic about the Tesla and defend Tesla on other blogs where ever other post someone calls Musk a fraud and laughs that Tesla will go under. It is absolutely amazing what Musk has done with Tesla going from 0 to 360,000 vehicles in 8 years

    My opinion is that the Tesla drives well, but it is downright silly to compare the Porsche to the Tesla as a sports car.......have you ever driven a 911 or Panamera? Or even the Cayenne , Macan , Boxster or Cayman, especially S, 4s or Turbo versions? I am on my 5th Porsche and also had the original Acura NSX. The handling, stability and performance of any of the Tesla's in real sports driving just simply doesn't compare to the Porsche for an EXPERIENCED sports car driver. Porsche's engineering of the Taycan was geared to produce and electric vehicle that drove like a Porsche, not just a fast electric powered sedan (ie Model 3 and Model S) that could drive long distances (slowly). Hopefully Tesla will catch up in the engineering of steering and suspension to improve steering stability and performance by the time it builds the Roadster and doesn't just think of raw speed and range. And hopefully Tesla will catch up to Porsche on the battery temperature management system which is important for an electric vehicle to drive in sustained high performance.

    Also Porsche buyers also look at quality of the manufacturing..... examine the quality and feel of the manufacturing of the body and interior of the Tesla and the Porsches. Tesla buyers look at the high tech of the car and the new "cool" factor, as well as the range, modern design and driving green

    Comparing the Tesla to the Porsche is like comparing the Lexus to the Porsche. I have a neighbor that doesn't understand the Porsche. He states Porsche is incredibly uncomfortable and you feel every bump in the road. Again, the a Lexus was built as a luxury vehicle with comfort as the design point, and sports car handling is the main point of a Porsche.
     
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  10. gwestr

    gwestr Active Member

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    Yeah I owned a 981 and have driven most of Porsche’s recent lineup 2015-2017 on a racetrack.

    Regarding quality, the 981 had a broken active cruise control system that they were never able to fix, so I just didn’t have cruise control. Tesla can easily fix these things without a service visit, or “the dealer blaming the manufacturer and the manufacturer blaming the dealer”. The 718 was stop-sale and recalled because the new strut tower reinforcements invalidated the crash test and caused a piece of metal to enter the cabin breaching the firewall. Save me the lecture on Porsche quality! Yes they spend time on QA. Yes, they have design flaws too. No, 3 year waterfall manufacturing is not superior or desirable to Tesla’s continuous delivery. I understand the differences.

    Tesla handles better than any current Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Panerma, etc. No comparison to a garbage front engine layout. It handles kind of like a base 718 because it’s basically the world’s first mid engine sedan. No, the suspension is not sophisticated but at least it’s double wishbone instead of macpherson as in 981/718.

    Musk is closing in on his 1 millionth vehicle delivered which is more than Porsche has done lately. If you compare ex-Macan, it’s even greater. Model Y will be their killer product that gets them into the rich Northeast of the United States.

    I’m down for the Taycan because I think spending $120,000 on a premium vehicle is a reasonable purchase. Most people who are premium car buyers can’t justify spending over $50k-$55k. If they have a choice between a 325 mile car with fast 0-60, and a 235 mile car with a 7 minute ring time for over 2x the cost — they’re picking a sensible Tesla over a ridiculous Porsche. I pick both?
     
  11. charliemathilde

    charliemathilde Well-Known Member

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    Tesla the product, which is a historic achievement, isn’t Tesla the business. And Detroit being f—ked doesn’t have anything to do with Tesla’s business problems. Since Tesla can’t manufacture cars faster, they can’t exploit Detroit’s weakness any more than they already have. These are all separate things. Tesla the business is hemorrhaging cash with huge quarterly losses and issuing multi billion dollar bonds. Which need to be repaid, with no apparent means to do so. In the short term, all available dollars are being invested into the Model Y lines and gigfactory 3. It’s not clear those investments will pay off large enough and soon enough to cover all their debts. Especially if the Chinese market is a bust in the short term due to a Chinese recession or insane trade war. Tesla has taken on an enormous amount of risk as a company. The markets are happy to loan Tesla more money for now but that could change quickly and drastically if the US economy slows. And the world economy doesn’t look so great right now.

    it’s not enough for the Model Y to be killer. Tesla needs it to be extremely profitable and very quickly. Their business plan is bold and aggressive and quite risky. Tesla could do everything right and still fall short. They don’t need to outrun Detroit, they already did that. they need to outrun their debt.
     
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  12. newreef77

    newreef77 Well-Known Member

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    I deleted one of my earlier post because of the tesla bullsh.. some users here write. Tesla as a vision, something new, maybe innovative everythings fine. But all the brands working since more than 100 years in buisness are not really scared about a Tesla at all. They know the ups and downs in automotive. Oil crisis, diesel crisis,.... whatever and they still managed it, multible times and they „earned“ real money, billions a year. Earn real money, not losses every quater and only a vision whenever it will be better. There will be crisis in the future and we will see how Tesla will handle it. Your perfect America first president will work on the next crisis and Porsche and Co. got a good bank account and not a fictive one .......
     
  13. gwestr

    gwestr Active Member

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    #103 gwestr, Aug 30, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
    Tesla doesn’t care if investors understand the business plan, and the things they’re working on don’t have positive cash flows next quarter. That doesn’t mean they’re insolvent or need reorganization. If you’re an INVESTOR, you are taking a 5-10 year view on the disruptive innovations they’re trying today. Just know that they are extremely capital efficient. Legacy auto will need another $1 trillion of debt to convert 300+ vehicle lines to electric. That’s on top of their astounding labor liabilities from building obsolete trucks and SUVs. Tesla is the safest bet in auto. They’re not taking August off like the boys in Germany. They seriously work 100 hour weeks. They’re winning, it’s just not well understood.

    But if you only read CNN dot com, a lot of things in this world are going to surprise you. You’d think that Tesla was the easiest car to steal, from this week’s news. In fact, it’s impossible to steal and is the least stolen car ever built.

    Germany is extra screwed because the government allocates labor. Imagine having the job of telling the government that you need to fire 1 million people who build diesel engines because we don’t need them any more. That’s the quagmire they’re in. And that’s why literally any California tech company can steal the auto industry from them, even one run by Musk. Wait until Intel, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and others enter the auto industry.

    Another thing misunderstood about Tesla is they go from design prototype to customer car in 18 months. That means early adopters can drive the early production. Sure, that comes with bugs. People know that and they don’t care. They want to live in the future. It’s very capital efficient and lean. The analysts get it wrong that those cars warranty cost is to spread out to volume production. It’s amazing to watch people get it wrong.

    The business plan is to break even on $35k cars and then sell customers another $15k of software at 90% margin, energy, services, apps, music, games, movies, etc.

    A modern BMW is like a Nokia phone. Ironically, their idea of being a tech company is buying HERE maps from Nokia. Tripling down on iDrive after 20 years is not working. MMI is garbage. Porsche is almost usable.
     
  14. newreef77

    newreef77 Well-Known Member

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    one simple question, how many tesla are already sold and which total amount is that worldwide. which markets will be targeted (china are real happy actually with US products) and whats the growthrate for a tesla model s for the future specially if there are more competitors ?
    For the customer competition is fine, more choice better conditions but there are still preferences and old routines. Dealerships, personal advantages,... So it‘s very difficult to predict the future of tesla and to be honest i didn‘t care about, but to think they are in the lead (of what?) and the best choice is a way only very special people think .....
    But it‘s everybodys choice and everyone’s free to think whatever he want‘s even it‘s kind of bullsh.....
     
  15. Friedrich

    Friedrich Well-Known Member

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    If you learn to write with at least some sense of objectivity and facts, people will listen
    Again, I am a HUGE Tesla fan and constantly defend Tesla on other blogs, but if you speak in hyperbole, total subjectivity, and incorrect facts, people reading will just laugh at the Fanboi commentary. Speak calmly with facts only and people will listen

    Tesla, as of end of second quarter has produced 720,000 vehicles, not 1 million. This is an absolutely amazing accomplishment of Musk and Tesla, not "every tech company" can do this as you previously stated. It is a car designed for the masses. And to think that all carmakers accept Tesla will fail is downright childish, almost Trumpesque style of absurd thinking.

    VERY few of the Teslas are the performance versions and that is all ok, Its a different target market. If you think a Tesla handles better than a Porsche Audi or Mercedes, then you are comparing it to the A4, 3-Series BMW, and C-Class Mercedes, which are the Model 3 competitor, which I would agree wholeheartedly. I test drove a BMW 3 series and thought a V6 Honda Accord did better. But Tesla still has a primitive suspension and steering system, its NOT a sports car....PERIOD. PERIOD PERIOD There is NO way you can compare a Tesla handling to that of a Panamera, much less a 911.
     
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