Future Battery Upgrades

[feye]

Battery swapping takes 3 minutes.

No it doesn't. If the station is closed, if the station door is closed, if the station does not have the personell required to supervise, if the station does not have the right battery you need/want, if it is out of fully charged batteries... The list is so long.

Besides, you only get a 90% charged battery, never 100% and you cannot leave the car while swapping! Sorry, way, way too much marketing hype!

While fast charging is so fast with the new 800V models, that you barley have time to hit the loo... So swapping is dead!

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[chun]

No it doesn't. If the station is closed, if the station door is closed, if the station does not have the personell required to supervise, if the station does not have the right battery you need/want, if it is out of fully charged batteries... The list is so long.

Besides, you only get a 90% charged battery, never 100% and you cannot leave the car while swapping! Sorry, way, way too much marketing hype!

While fast charging is so fast with the new 800V models, that you barley have time to hit the loo... So swapping is dead!

Battery swap starts at 2:34; it ends at 5:50 for a grand total of 3 minutes and 26 seconds, so yes, you were right, it's not 3 minutes, it's 3 minutes and 26 seconds
This is a gen4 station designed not for NIO cars specifically, but for other brands to use.

And here another test of 3:30 minutes, done by an american, to avoid biases:


One of the battery swap stations installed in Europe, in 2022, so first generation stations, takes 5 minutes. I have personally seen it done in Netherlands, around Utrecht and it was 10-15 euros

Arguments like: if the swapping station is closed, if the payment doesn't work etc... are pointless. This can happen with an High Speed charger also, and in fact it does happen.

While 10C charging is just getting off the ground, and just reaching these times of 3-5 minutes, this swapping technology is already established at scale and delivering this time for years already. And unlike 10C charging, swapping doesn't come with infrastructure issues in terms of energy delivery to the station - so it allows for these swapping station to exist in remote locations also.

Energy delivery is not a one single solution problem. Different solutions for different needs and situations will be needed.

 

[Gino]

Battery swap starts at 2:34; it ends at 5:50 for a grand total of 3 minutes and 26 seconds, so yes, you were right, it's not 3 minutes, it's 3 minutes and 26 seconds
This is a gen4 station designed not for NIO cars specifically, but for other brands to use.

And here another test of 3:30 minutes, done by an american, to avoid biases:


One of the battery swap stations installed in Europe, in 2022, so first generation stations, takes 5 minutes. I have personally seen it done in Netherlands, around Utrecht and it was 10-15 euros

Arguments like: if the swapping station is closed, if the payment doesn't work etc... are pointless. This can happen with an High Speed charger also, and in fact it does happen.

While 10C charging is just getting off the ground, and just reaching these times of 3-5 minutes, this swapping technology is already established at scale and delivering this time for years already. And unlike 10C charging, swapping doesn't come with infrastructure issues in terms of energy delivery to the station - so it allows for these swapping station to exist in remote locations also.

Energy delivery is not a one single solution problem. Different solutions for different needs and situations will be needed.

I doubt battery swapping would become a service offered in the US.
It would invalidate the 8 year 100K mile battery warranty.
I’m sure Porsche would love to decline warranty claims on batteries which were swapped by anyone other than Porsche.
It’s like when I buy a prefilled propane tank and swap my tank for the refilled tank. The only problem is that the brand new tank I gave in trade has a longer warranty than the one I received. Many people trade in their tanks when they can no longer fill them at a station and the date stamped on the tank has expired.
All you can do is trade it in for another tank from one of these refill stations. They may replace the valve but usually don’t change the date stamped on the tank so you can’t get it refilled without swapping it out for another refilled tank. You need to make sure you see the expiration date on the tank before you do the swap.
The same will be for EV batteries. You would need to know how old the battery is & how many miles or charge cycles has it experienced so you don’t get a battery older with more charging cycles on it than the original one in your vehicle.

 

[chun]

I doubt battery swapping would become a service offered in the US.
It would invalidate the 8 year 100K mile battery warranty.
I’m sure Porsche would love to decline warranty claims on batteries which were swapped by anyone other than Porsche.
It’s like when I buy a prefilled propane tank and swap my tank for the refilled tank. The only problem is that the brand new tank I gave in trade has a longer warranty than the one I received. Many people trade in their tanks when they can no longer fill them at a station and the date stamped on the tank has expired.
All you can do is trade it in for another tank from one of these refill stations. They may replace the valve but usually don’t change the date stamped on the tank so you can’t get it refilled without swapping it out for another refilled tank. You need to make sure you see the expiration date on the tank before you do the swap.
The same will be for EV batteries. You would need to know how old the battery is & how many miles or charge cycles has it experienced so you don’t get a battery older with more charging cycles on it than the original one in your vehicle.

There would be no warranty, as batteries would be a subscription - you pay 10-15 euros each time you get a battery; and then per day/month if you don't swap it.

Why would you have a warranty for something you give back, broken or not? It would be a service, not something you own - for cars that decide to support this.

Nio for example also support swapping from 60kw to 115kw battery; or the other way around. Based on your needs of the day. The charging cycles of the battery, age, etc, are irrelevant.
What matters is you get the range they tell you for that swap, then you swap to another next day or in a week or in a month or whenever.

So a better analogy would be with Apple Cloud Storage. Do you expect a warranty for the 1TB storage you have in Apple's cloud?

 

[feye]

Battery swap starts at 2:34; it ends at 5:50 for a grand total of 3 minutes and 26 seconds, so yes, you were right, it's not 3 minutes, it's 3 minutes and 26 seconds
This is a gen4 station designed not for NIO cars specifically, but for other brands to use.

And here another test of 3:30 minutes, done by an american, to avoid biases:


One of the battery swap stations installed in Europe, in 2022, so first generation stations, takes 5 minutes. I have personally seen it done in Netherlands, around Utrecht and it was 10-15 euros

Arguments like: if the swapping station is closed, if the payment doesn't work etc... are pointless. This can happen with an High Speed charger also, and in fact it does happen.

While 10C charging is just getting off the ground, and just reaching these times of 3-5 minutes, this swapping technology is already established at scale and delivering this time for years already. And unlike 10C charging, swapping doesn't come with infrastructure issues in terms of energy delivery to the station - so it allows for these swapping station to exist in remote locations also.

Energy delivery is not a one single solution problem. Different solutions for different needs and situations will be needed.

Sorry, not what I see at the swapping stations I am watching in China. From the time you arrive, to the time you are leaving, 10 min garanteed! What you show is marketing and has nothing to do with real life!

The whole idea of swapping was to be as fast as filling up a tank, instead of charging for 40 min. But now we charge in 18 min and with BYD now in 10 min. There is basically no difference anymore and the need for swapping evaporated!

Why I would never buy into it?
1. It's expensive, look at the prices for NIO cars. Not worth it!
2. You never know how good the battery is you are getting swapped in. Not what I want!

 

[chun]

Sorry, not what I see at the swapping stations I am watching in China. From the time you arrive, to the time you are leaving, 10 min garanteed! What you show is marketing and has nothing to do with real life!

The whole idea of swapping was to be as fast as filling up a tank, instead of charging for 40 min. But now we charge in 18 min and with BYD now in 10 min. There is basically no difference anymore and the need for swapping evaporated!

Why I would never buy into it?
1. It's expensive, look at the prices for NIO cars. Not worth it!
2. You never know how good the battery is you are getting swapped in. Not what I want!

There are thousands of videos reporting 3 to 4 minutes times man.
Videos from randoom people with 30 views made in the last 3 years.

It's not marketing.

Should i count when I charge the car the time it takes me to park, time to to find the porsche card, time to get out of the car, time to plug the charger, time wait for charging to start, time debug if it doesn't start charging, time to manage to pay as every charging station comes with different payment solution, time for changing charging stalls when it doesn't work, time to stop the charging, time to removing the cable, time to getting back in the car, and all that, for normal charging also?

Don't be ridiculous.

The world doesn't revolve around you, shocking, i know. You don't need to buy into anything. As I mentioned, energy delivery is not a 1 solution lock. Different needs with different solutions.

Swapping is a proven technology, deployed at scale, with thousands deployed in china alone, and people use it.

Why would you ever buy cloud storage with Apple, when you can just build your own SSD server at home? Dunno, maybe different needs, different solutions would be an answer, eh?

 

[Gino]

There would be no warranty, as batteries would be a subscription - you pay 10-15 euros each time you get a battery; and then per day/month if you don't swap it.

Why would you have a warranty for something you give back, broken or not? It would be a service, not something you own - for cars that decide to support this.

Nio for example also support swapping from 60kw to 115kw battery; or the other way around. Based on your needs of the day. The charging cycles of the battery, age, etc, are irrelevant.
What matters is you get the range they tell you for that swap, then you swap to another next day or in a week or in a month or whenever.

So a better analogy would be with Apple Cloud Storage. Do you expect a warranty for the 1TB storage you have in Apple's cloud?

Interesting concept if it all works out.
It makes me a bit uneasy if a non-Porsche entity owns/has the responsibility of a big chunk of my Taycan and if this non-Porsche entity goes out of business then I’m stuck with the last battery they installed which Porsche would likely not honor any warranty of a 3rd party repaired battery pack.
I would prefer to own my battery pack and have the 8 year 100K mile warranty as my safety net. Only after the battery warranty expires would I even consider a battery swap service. It likely won’t make sense for me since I don’t drive more than 110 miles per week on average since I travel by air well over 50% of the year for business & personal travel. I only need my Level 1 Porsche 120V charger to keep up with my very low usage.

 

[feye]

There are thousands of videos reporting 3 to 4 minutes times man.
Videos from randoom people with 30 views made in the last 3 years.

It's not marketing.

Should i count when I charge the car the time it takes me to park, time to to find the porsche card, time to get out of the car, time to plug the charger, time wait for charging to start, time debug if it doesn't start charging, time to manage to pay as every charging station comes with different payment solution, time for changing charging stalls when it doesn't work, time to stop the charging, time to removing the cable, time to getting back in the car, and all that, for normal charging also?

Don't be ridiculous.

Now hit the nail! When I fill up the tank, and then have to wait 5 min at the counter to pay - or when Prosche tells me I can charge in 18 min, but I am in the middle of a rainy night at IONITY charging station, which should work, but the IONITY app just wont start the charging. After 10 min and no charging and frozen off hands, I give up!

This is the reality, stop suggar coating the reality with marketing rubbish.

Out of like 10 times I have seen a NIO swapping station in China, 3 times it was in active operation! The rest of times, there was nobody, the shutters where down and there was no indication, that you could swap a battery. Once I saw a queue on a station, 6 months later the station was removed entirly. What I see a lot is regular chargers build buy NIO, like all the other brands in China have, like Zeekr, BYD, etc...

Swapping is an old idea, which has been killed by battery tech.

One more reason: I have a Zeekr 001 with 140kWh battery. I drive on the highway 750 km easy. Once I have done 750km, I need a big break. Who on earth is desperate to swap a battery in 5 min. I am thinking: "Don't be ridiculous."

 

[chun]

One more reason: I have a Zeekr 001 with 140kWh battery. I drive on the highway 750 km easy. Once I have done 750km, I need a big break. Who on earth is desperate to swap a battery in 5 min. I am thinking: "Don't be ridiculous."

Here's a real example. I go visit my parents in the middle of a mountain. The fastest charging infrastructure supported there, by the electricity lines in place, is 22kw. Now, I would much rather swap my battery in 3 minutes than charge for 9h my zeeker with 140kwh battery.

Again, you are ignoring the reality of the world. Not everyone lives in Shenzhen, the technology capital of china.

Different needs will require different solutions.

Another scenario: I can't afford a zeeker with a 140kwh.
I would much rather buy a NIO with a battery subscription, at a franction of the cost since battery prices are not included, to drive to work and back, and spend 15 Euros a week to swap the battery in 3 minutes. And if I need to go out of city, bam, a 140kw battery gets swapped in for let says 25 euros.

You seem to have difficulty of stepping into the shoes of people not in your position, and see why different solutions make sense in different scenarios.

Just like not everyone can afford a data center in their home, and buys cloud storage, so will people think of batteries, people that can't afford to own cars with 140kw batteries.

It's not marketing, it's the functionality of the product. When it functions, that's the time. We don't measure the charging speed of the taycan while including the months it says in service to be fixed, we measure the speed of charging by kw when the car actually works. You don't present a products functionality in the worst case scenario. Let's not be hypocrites.

 

[W1NGE]

Didn't Renault do this some years back with the Zoe and then abandoned it?

 

[Gino]

Didn't Renault do this some years back with the Zoe and then abandoned it?

In order for EVs to fully replace ICE vehicles an equivalent number of charging or battery replacement options will need to be part of the infrastructure.
Swapping batteries is the least attractive but still viable until battery capacity/range meets and hopefully exceeds the range of a similarly sized & equipped ICE vehicle. Once range of a Taycan gets into the 400-500 miles range minimum swapping becomes unnecessary. You also have to consider the more extreme cases as well such as when I drive for 200 to 300 miles each way to very remote camping locations where I get 450 miles out of my tank but bring an additional 20 gallons of fuel with me to increase my range by an additional 300 miles. I could never take an EV SUV on one of these trips without stopping for charging at the safest locations just before I enter “no man’s land”.
A 600+ mile range full size SUV would allow me to use an EV for these trips.
The other trips I currently make every year from LA to Park City, UT is 700 miles one way. Gas is $2.20 to $2.50 in Utah and $2.90 to 3.50 in Arizona so it’s not only cheaper than any full size SUV EV but there are no full size SUV EVs with enough range to only charge once on the way out and once on the way back.
These applications will be the last to be taken away from ICE vehicles.
For me my 74KwH battery in my Taycan is fine since I would never take it camping when I have a very comfortable Airstream sprinter van RV or my Hummer H2 which can carry so much more stuff than any EV and I can bring extra fuel for emergencies.
For people who like to use their Taycan for every day, everywhere it becomes very challenging.
I’ve thought about adding a 10KwH Tesla Powerwall on the back of my 22’ Airstream RV to extend my dry camping ability from 2-3 days to 2-3 weeks but the added weight and $10K+ initial cost for the Powerwall can’t be justified against $2.50 fuel and simply idle my engine on the once a year trip.
I was even thinking I could make the Tesla Powerwall plug & play portable so I could use it at home the other 50 weeks of the year to draw from the Powerwall to avoid peak power costs but again the economics just don’t work unless the price of a Powerwall drops by 70%.
I currently have 2 165 pound golf cart batteries (330lbs total) in my RV which have a total capacity of 550 amp hours which will last 2-3 days without running AC and using a 110W solar panel to charge during the day.
My strategy only makes sense if a Powerwall costs less than $3K so it’s not going to happen for only 1 trip per year.
For now, the sweet spot for EVs is when the majority of your driving is within a 80-150 mile radius of home depending on which EV you have and what size battery pack.
The one disadvantage of EVs is the bigger battery pack you buy up front means you must drag that weight around for the entire range of the vehicle unlike an ICE vehicle which actually gets better fuel mileage as the tank empties and the vehicle gets lighter. My H2 gets 12 mpg when it’s full and almost 15 mpg when it is less than 1/4 tank since the vehicle weighs 200 pounds less.
A Tesla Powerwall weighs roughly 200lbs so carrying that extra weight all the time would drop my mileage rate which is why I was trying to only use it like adding extra fuel tanks on long trips.
This is where I could see a battery swap could make sense but only if the total range was greater than 700 miles in my real world cases…
Higher energy density battery technologies are coming down the pike in the next 5-10 years which will double if not triple the KwH/kg and make EVs much more versatile in areas where charging will always be minimal if non-existent in the wilderness…

 

[W1NGE]

So wait for solid state batteries - should be one around in 2 years time.

 

[chun]

So wait for solid state batteries - should be one around in 2 years time.

They are 2 years out every year )
Semi-solid are not yet used in mass production. First mass produced car below 500k price cost with a solid state battery will be 2035 earliest according to CATL

 

[W1NGE]

They are 2 years out every year )
Semi-solid are not yet used in mass production. First mass produced car below 500k price cost with a solid state battery will be 2035 earliest according to CATL

Umm BYD...

 

[chun]

Umm BYD...

First demo vehicles in 2027, mass production 2030 earliest is what BYD says. And it sounds optimistic, but we’ll see

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