Dealer trade in values

[CinVinman]

Since Tesla is cutting prices, EV values for substitutes also fall. I wasn't excited to hear my 2020 Turbo was worth only 105k a few months ago and even less so to hear 85-95 today. Starting with subpar range and an immature charging network didn't help. Early battery issues certainly didn't either. There is a big fork in the road coming and I hope the Taycan is on the right side of that fork. Hearing some internal folks describe it as a 'failed experiment' doesn't give me a good feeling, however.

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[tutis]

Here’s a data point for a CT4 in Switzerland. Mind you Porsche is offering 0.75% lease on new Tay and 5% on used ones.
I spotted a dream spec 992 at a dealer and asked for a trade in valuation for my CT4 bought new in Jan 2022 where MSRP was 142k and now with 28k kilometres.
Dealer has offered me 79k, which is a CAGR of -30%; that’s right, that’s 45% less after 18 months or 30% per YEAR, which if you extrapolate gives me a residual value of 35% after 3 years.

A quick average of similar cars on autoscout is at 98k, so 31% less or CAGR of -19%, which extrapolates to residual value of 53% after 3 years.

for reference the lease residual value is 67k after 3 years, so 47% and that’s supposed to be usually 10-20% lower than true market value (compared to extrapolated 35% for trade in and 53% market, per above). Given all the issues I’ve had and continue to have, and the probable lack of “in the money” residual value, I don’t think I’ll be keeping this one when lease is up.

 

[Archimedes]

Your car was $142k. The minute you drove it off the lot, it was worth about $121k. Dealer offered you a wholesale price for your car; add retail markup and they’ll sell it for around $88k. So your car has depreciated at a rate of about 20% per annum during the 19 months you owned it. Slightly high, but not that much out of the range of expectations. You’re putting close to 1k miles a month on the car, so it’s gonna depreciate.

 

[911]

I’m looking at Taycan turbos because of the depreciation. They’re really good value for the spec now.

I thought future value estimates for the Taycan were optimistic but I never expected this.

4 door saloons (st isn’t very practical either) the size of a Range Rover never hold their value.

The Taycan is a older guys car. Target audience is too narrow and Porsche flooded the market at launch.

Now business leases are ending, the supply/demand pendulum has swung the other way.

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

There is a big fork in the road coming and I hope the Taycan is on the right side of that fork. Hearing some internal folks describe it as a 'failed experiment' doesn't give me a good feeling, however.

I'm not going to ask for a citation, but this strains credulity. They sold 100k of the things in the first 3 years, despite <usual pandemic and supply chain issues>. They have never sold a 911 at that rate (997.1 came close at 136k over 5 years). It brought a new clientele to Porsche, and they're obviously going all in with more EV-only models. I can't imagine in what way this could be deemed to be a 'failed experiment'.

I’m looking at Taycan turbos because of the depreciation. They’re really good value for the spec now.

4 door saloons (st isn’t very practical either) the size of a Range Rover never hold their value.

The Taycan is a older guys car. Target audience is too narrow and Porsche flooded the market at launch.

Can't tell if you're speaking about the UK market in particular, or making a generalized statement. Or what you mean by 'older guys'. Or whether you do have first-hand experience with the practicality of a Turismo.

I do agree it's not for everyone. One could even say that there is no competitor for it in the EV station wagon segment, so while the audience may be narrow, it seems Porsche have chosen their niche well.

 

[snstevens]

I’m looking at Taycan turbos because of the depreciation. They’re really good value for the spec now.

I thought future value estimates for the Taycan were optimistic but I never expected this.

4 door saloons (st isn’t very practical either) the size of a Range Rover never hold their value.

The Taycan is a older guys car. Target audience is too narrow and Porsche flooded the market at launch.

Now business leases are ending, the supply/demand pendulum has swung the other way.

You don't buy a car because of the value, you buy a car because driving it gives you pleasure.

Your frequent reference to the Taycan as "an older guys car" is totally irrelevant even if it were true (although I suppose given their cost a case could be made that the average of a Porsche buyer is older than other vehicles, due mostly to their cost).

Clearly you are not a fan, so I re-direct you to my response to your post on another depreciation-related thread.

 

[Archimedes]

I’m looking at Taycan turbos because of the depreciation. They’re really good value for the spec now.

I thought future value estimates for the Taycan were optimistic but I never expected this.

4 door saloons (st isn’t very practical either) the size of a Range Rover never hold their value.

The Taycan is a older guys car. Target audience is too narrow and Porsche flooded the market at launch.

Now business leases are ending, the supply/demand pendulum has swung the other way.

No different than any other car. If you compare the number of 20-22 Taycans on AT relative to production levels, it’s no higher than the 911. I did the comparison a while back, and the Taycan was actually a slightly lower percentage of vehicles sold.

 

[annieland]

The Taycan is a older guys car.

What on Earth!?!? I'm not claiming to be "young" but I'm not a guy and my car is a party on wheels. Kids of all ages fight to get a ride and seriously still talk about it days to months later (I get the hearsay from my kids). It gets waaaaaay more attention from young people (mostly guys, some older women/moms) when I'm out and about.

Maybe someone knows the average buyer age of a new Porsche for each model? Otherwise, speak for yourself .

 

[gnop1950]

What on Earth!?!? I'm not claiming to be "young" but I'm not a guy and my car is a party on wheels. Kids of all ages fight to get a ride and seriously still talk about it days to months later (I get the hearsay from my kids). It gets waaaaaay more attention from young people (mostly guys, some older women/moms) when I'm out and about.

Maybe someone knows the average buyer age of a new Porsche for each model? Otherwise, speak for yourself .

Buyers of the fan-favorite Porsche 911 model are. often between 46 and 65 years old, with the average age being 52. The Porsche Boxster, on the other hand, is often bought by persons who are 47 years of age or fall between 36 and 55 years of age.

Is one I've seen in a number of different places. So over 50 I guess would qualify as "older" folk

But it makes sense since older folk are often much more financially secure. On the other hand, virtually every young person I've interacted with that has seen my car has commented on how they hope they'll be able to buy a car like that someday.

 

[911]

What on Earth!?!? I'm not claiming to be "young" but I'm not a guy and my car is a party on wheels. Kids of all ages fight to get a ride and seriously still talk about it days to months later (I get the hearsay from my kids). It gets waaaaaay more attention from young people (mostly guys, some older women/moms) when I'm out and about.

Maybe someone knows the average buyer age of a new Porsche for each model? Otherwise, speak for yourself .

I never said young people don’t like them. Just most cant afford one which is obvious.

I never said a woman wouldn’t buy one, but the vast majority are men. Just like with the Panamera.

No different than saying a 4 cylinder boxster is a woman’s car. Doesn’t mean a man can’t drive one.

 

[annieland]

Of course I understand the financial aspect. I guess I should have then specified that I was wondering in relation to other Porsche model buyers. I'm in my local PCA so I totally get the older guy thing, but I just don't see the Taycan in general as "older guy." If anything, I see the Panamera more that way (even though I do like it!).

 

[007]

The Taycan is an older guys car. Target audience is too narrow and Porsche flooded the market at launch.

It’s crazy expensive for the younger kids… especially for those without money from mom and dad and need to work their way up in life. At 20 I was super happy with my Toyota, at 30 BMW was the dream car, and now at 40, happy to be able to afford the exceptional Taycan.

 

[annieland]

But it makes sense since older folk are often much more financially secure. On the other hand, virtually every young person I've interacted with that has seen my car has commented on how they hope they'll be able to buy a car like that someday.

Right, and I think perception is important in marketing! I doubt if I drove up to school in a Panamera I'd get even a tenth of the reaction my Taycan elicits, if any at all. But the 911 and Boxster? Sure. But even if "older guys" buy 'em or are driving them, I don't think they're perceived that way, and aspiration is important. I wouldn't be driving this Taycan today if I didn't fall in love with the 911's my friends' dads were driving when I was 10 years old.

 

[CinVinman]

I'm not going to ask for a citation, but this strains credulity. They sold 100k of the things in the first 3 years, despite <usual pandemic and supply chain issues>. They have never sold a 911 at that rate (997.1 came close at 136k over 5 years). It brought a new clientele to Porsche, and they're obviously going all in with more EV-only models. I can't imagine in what way this could be deemed to be a 'failed experiment'.

The fork in the road is when all Porsches except the 911 will be battery powered. Will both the Taycan and the Panamera survive in that scenario? Time will tell. This is not to say electrification is a failed experiment - much has been learned. The Taycan is associated with - limited range, numerous recalls, high depreciation, embarrassing lock-ups leaving one with a car that literally won't move an inch, an immature charging network and slower-than-advertised charging times. Lots of good things too, but in the end, those of us who were early adopters bore the brunt of the above. BTW, 'failed experiment' was not my characterization.

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

The fork in the road is when all Porsches except the 911 will be battery powered. Will both the Taycan and the Panamera survive in that scenario? Time will tell.

Ah, that. Probably not, but it doesn't mean much - functionally speaking they are the same even today, just with different propulsion. The Taycan was a symbolic addition to the range - it couldn't have been 'Panamera EV', and in that regard it was an experiment. But the company as a whole has learned that it is viable, there is a market for it, and so something like this (sedan/wagon) will continue to exist in their EV lineup.

[...] those of us who were early adopters bore the brunt of the above. BTW, 'failed experiment' was not my characterization.

I understand you were quoting someone (which you characterized as 'insiders'); still, it seems you were agreeing with that point, hence my rebuttal. (And if not, please feel free to fwd it to whom it may concern. ) Perhaps it was a point-in-time remark, when production and deliveries were impacted by the aforementioned issues? But no matter, those challenges were conquered and that alone makes this a 'successful experiment'. Nobody ever in engineering expected a project to go error- or mistake-free.

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