Tesla Model S Plaid Announcement

[manitou202]

The battery day presentation was about nice incremental improvements in their battery technology and manufacturing processes. Not some huge leap forward that completely disrupts the car market. I'm pretty sure many other battery manufacturers are moving forward with similar progress. Maybe a couple of years behind Tesla, but not decades behind.

With Tesla's market cap worth more than all the European car manufacturers combined, it should be expected that they make incremental improvements like this. Otherwise how do you justify the price? They need to become much more profitable, sell 20X - 30X the number of vehicles they do today, and possibly sell batteries to other manufacturers to justify the price of today. Even then it's still too high.

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[DeciusCaeciliusMetellus]

Have to give Tesla the edge on battery technology and product integration though. Their efficiency in terms of Wh/mile/kg is excellent. I am sure though others are listening too - and improve their technology. My hope is that by the time my lease expires in 3 years there will be a mid-cycle Taycan refresh with new battery tech.

As of right now Tesla doesn't have battery cell technology in production (outside of a pilot line). They source all their batteries cells from partners (originally just Panasonic, nowadays from LG and CATL, too) that sell to others as well.

 

[Mouse House]

With Tesla's market cap worth more than all the European car manufacturers combined, it should be expected that they make incremental improvements like this. Otherwise how do you justify the price? They need to become much more profitable, sell 20X - 30X the number of vehicles they do today, and possibly sell batteries to other manufacturers to justify the price of today. Even then it's still too high.

As I understand it the company has only ever made a program wide profit by compensating with carbon credits, and it looks likely there is some creative accounting going on with credits being sold against unsold vehicles. So yeah it is inevitably overvalued.

 

[Dee]

As I understand it the company has only ever made a program wide profit by compensating with carbon credits, and it looks likely there is some creative accounting going on with credits being sold against unsold vehicles. So yeah it is inevitably overvalued.

But it doesn't matter.

 

[Mouse House]

But it doesn't matter.

In what way does it not matter?

Can the value go up indefinitely with no profit to support it? Do economic bubbles and collapses not have further impacts? If a bubble in Tesla stock is OK does that mean the next bubble is also OK?

Would you like to buy some tulips?

 

[svp6]

I only saw the abbreviated version of the presentation. Did anyone catch if they announced something about the model Y produced in Germany? Musk said something about an announcement when he visited Giga Berlin few weeks ago. Was that about integrating the battery in the frame of the car by making the cells take part of the shear stress load?

 

[svp6]

In what way does it not matter?

Can the value go up indefinitely with no profit to support it? Do economic bubbles and collapses not have further impacts? If a bubble in Tesla stock is OK does that mean the next bubble is also OK?

Of course it will have lows - you just have to see their pattern before. But I doubt a real crash unless the entire economy goes south. I remember thinking there is a buy opportunity when it dipped close to 180 from the previous peak of 380 (before the market split 1:5); respected analyst had a target valuation range of $10-120 for the year. I did not have the balls to buy, but others made a fortune on the 10x gain.... At least I held on to the stock.

Tesla volatility will probably return, but at a different level of pricing

 

[Dee]

In what way does it not matter?

Can the value go up indefinitely with no profit to support it? Do economic bubbles and collapses not have further impacts? If a bubble in Tesla stock is OK does that mean the next bubble is also OK?

Would you like to buy some tulips?

Value is a relative concept.
Same as Bitcoin but you can make money out of it.
Only when the bubble explodes it matters.

 

[HigherLevel]

Agree with much of what was already said. The acceleration is impressive, but there wasn't much to get excited about. This tech isn't actually affecting products they have available now or within the next 6 months. Everyone knows at this point that if it's 1+years away, it's really an unknown if it will see the light of day.

To be fair about "Elon Time," everyone seems to quickly forget that the Y was actually way ahead of schedule. And yet somehow people assume the Lucid Air release is going to go off without a hitch, right on time, just like Rivian did lol.

 

[manitou202]

The ID.4 just revealed. This is going to hurt Tesla. Starts $10k less than the Model Y and still qualifies for the $7500 tax credit. Very competitive lease rates and 3 years of free charging at EA stations. Yes it's slower, has less range and lacks some of the tech and gimmicks of a Tesla, but $10K is a huge difference. For many people in this price range, a lease or loan payment of $50 a month less is a big deal.

This is the first real competitor to the Model Y and 3 in the US. Several more coming in 2021 from Nissan, and GM. The Mustang Mach-E will compete on the higher end with the Y. Tesla really needs a lower cost Model Y and Model 3.

VW ID.4 First Look

 

[DeciusCaeciliusMetellus]

The ID.4 just revealed. This is going to hurt Tesla. Starts $10k less than the Model Y and still qualifies for the $7500 tax credit. Very competitive lease rates and 3 years of free charging at EA stations. Yes it's slower, has less range and lacks some of the tech and gimmicks of a Tesla, but $10K is a huge difference. For many people in this price range, a lease or loan payment of $50 a month less is a big deal.

This is the first real competitor to the Model Y and 3 in the US. Several more coming in 2021 from Nissan, and GM. The Mustang Mach-E will compete on the higher end with the Y. Tesla really needs a lower cost Model Y and Model 3.

VW ID.4 First Look

Well...
The ID.4s WLTP range (522km) is better than the Model Y (505km). And we know from the Taycan that the EPA numbers are sometimes very questionable. The attached image is from a VW investor call. See https://www.volkswagenag.com/presen...ber/20200915_VW_Presentation_Bagschik_UBS.pdf

As for tech: the ID.4 has an augmented reality HUD as option. Tesla doesn't have anything like that.

 

[Gogs]

Exciting to see the ID’s hit the market. Good for EV use all round. More the merrier as long as the charging infrastructure keeps up.

 

[Dee]

I don't know about you guys but I'm excited by every new electric car that comes out.
Not only sports cars but EVs in general.
Exciting times after 100+ years of petrol engines!

 

[Vim Schrotnock]

Dave - I love your posts and your insights. I also agree that most of the issues with EA and the Taycan will continue into 2021, and possibly longer (sigh...)

But for anyone reading this post let me say that the Taycan 4S is the best car I've ever purchased (leased) because it is by far the most fun to drive.

The other issues like my learning how to avoid curbing the 21" Mission-E wheels (ouch on the first repair), deciding how to handle EA charging stations that aren't working, etc. are still on the "who cares" end of the spectrum for me. I simply love this car

Did I say it was the most fun to drive?

Get yourself a couple 'traffic cones' and practice pulling up to them in your driveway, both from the side, and from the front. I do this whenever I get a new car that has a low front spoiler, and it will get you very familiar with just how much room you have on the passenger side when parking. It's definitely worth a few hours of your time...

 

[feye]

As of right now Tesla doesn't have battery cell technology in production (outside of a pilot line). They source all their batteries cells from partners (originally just Panasonic, nowadays from LG and CATL, too) that sell to others as well.

True! And totally explains why my Taycan is more efficient than my MS90D with a desert like interior and narrow pumped up tires.

I just cannot believe why some people are so desperate that they need to believe that some pot smoking guy can invent a technical miracle. Until today, I have not seen/experienced ANYTHING special besides my Taycan eating corners!

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