Porsche is Toast! A Wake-Up Call From the Streets of Shenzhen...

[JackSparrow]

It seems sort of obvious, but they could just retool their PDK and Manual transmission and have those as optional EV drivetrain components.
Mercedes has come out with an optional level 4 autonomous driving solution on the S-class, seemingly leapfrogging everyone else. I believe all of the Chinese implementations are not level 4 at the moment. Tesla is not level 4 but supervised.
I would expect VW group to catch up with a viable solution.
Oh, and we had plenty of warning regarding climate change, but we are definitely going to saddle the younger among us with a significant burden. Perhaps a technical innovation will help mitigate the damage.

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[Vercingetorix]

It was 1987 when it was predicted the Japanese would own the entire car market. Hasn’t happened.

 

[chun]

It seems sort of obvious, but they could just retool their PDK and Manual transmission and have those as optional EV drivetrain components.
Mercedes has come out with an optional level 4 autonomous driving solution on the S-class, seemingly leapfrogging everyone else. I believe all of the Chinese implementations are not level 4 at the moment. Tesla is not level 4 but supervised.
I would expect VW group to catch up with a viable solution.
Oh, and we had plenty of warning regarding climate change, but we are definitely going to saddle the younger among us with a significant burden. Perhaps a technical innovation will help mitigate the damage.

Level 4 means claiming responsibility when an accident happens under autonomous driving. And in that, Mercedes is indeed alone. At least until someone actually tests it in court, and Mercedes backtracks it.

But in terms of the actual autonomous driving capabilities, there are many Chinese that are better than what Mercedes offers. But of course, they will never claim level 4, as most companies don’t want any responsibility over accidents

 

[BjörnfromHamburg]

2015 I had both: a 993 Carrera S and a Tesla Model S P85D. The shift in the carworld couldn't have been more visible and palpable as it was to me those days.
I was into every development of Tesla those days AND monitored the reaction of Porsche/ VAG closely.
VW stated: Let Tesla do their thing, we have all the concepts in the drawer. If we join the e-mobility, we will be no. 1 instantly.
When the Porsche CEO was asked about his opinion about Tesla those days, he said: Tesla? I don't know Tesla.

The arrogance and corporate blindness were appalling to me.
I thought: this is going to be a huuuuge problem in a few years.
They should start immediately.
And those days, it was just Tesla.
The whole chinese market didn't even exist.

With all the power of german automotive industry, think-tanks and legacy, this development is still baffling to me.

I will enjoy my Taycan and my manual 992.2 for as long as they give me the joy they do every single day. But I will not stay with Porsche forever for the sake of name and legacy.
It's their own stupid fault.

 

[tigerbalm]

But I will not stay with Porsche forever for the sake of name and legacy.
It's their own stupid fault.

The "Innovator's Dilemma" is probably the book that best describes whats happening to Porsche. But it is still frustrating to witness. They misread where the market is going so badly, while at the same time being on the beginnings of the right track.

They hoped it was true that "nobody bought a Porsche for infotainment technology", which is probably correct. But they ignored the gap that had built up was becoming too wide. They were selling a Nokia in the era of the iPhone.

I am probably well within their target market. I do care about the legacy of Porsche and do not need the latest technology from them. But the architecture of the PCM currently in 911s and the Taycan is frustratingly stubborn.

That Porsche signed off on Taycan PCM in late 2017 with its misuse of docker, its laggy touch interface and its sluggish update cadence is unfathomable. Both Apple and Google had shown how to deploy billions of "IoT" style devices, how to design their OS (heck Google's was mostly open sourced) and how to do application isolation safely. So had Tesla.

Not only had Porsche (via Audi and VAG) ignored all this, they proudly talked about their own engineering approach in their Porsche Engineering magazine despite it being an insane direction. Those decisions were compounded by "typical" cost engineering that happens at legacy car manufactures where they hampered the bloated PCM software stack with under-resourced memory (and probably compute) to save €100 on cars starting at €100,000.

For me its a window into the cognitive dissonance that Porsche underwent at the time. And they eventually ended up copying the Google approach for the PCM rolling out to Macan, Cayenne and presumably the upcoming 718.

This is mostly linked to their approach to infotainment – and where the Chinese have pulled ahead – the software related to "mechanical engineering" aspects of the car is second-to-none. The software driving rear-wheel steering, PDCC, active-ride or the air suspension is market leading.

The worrying signals coming out of Porsche is that they have stated that they are going to double down on "legacy" aspects such as greater personalisation, more uniqueness and higher end variants.

With the announced reduction in workforce numbers – with the co-operation of the Works Council – I think Porsche are planning for a future where they are a more niche manufacturer, with lower volumes and higher markups.

There are a lot of options at the higher end of the vehicle industry – so they are chasing after a smaller subset of consumers – that have choices from Ferrari, McLaren, Koenigsegg, etc. It will be interesting if a SUV maker like Porsche can pull that off.

But one thing for sure, with so much of their range now over on pure EV – they are taking electrification way more seriously than they are currently being given credit for. They are not pulling back from it, they are just signalling to the market that the days of selling every EV they have capacity to manufacture is no longer happening.

The era of 2022 when they were adding shifts to the Taycan factory in Zuffenhausen are well and truly over.

Here in Ireland, almost nobody is ordering new Taycan's – but second hand cars retailing for about 50% of their original price are "flying off the shelves". They can't keep them in stock at a €55-€65k price point.

 

[BjörnfromHamburg]

@tigerbalm
Thanks! You described all my thoughts I cannot bring into English
I came from Tesla as daily and certainly did not expect too much from software, and didn't care either.
It's frustrating though, that Porsche has so little acknowledgement for its customers, not even bringing up smallest iterations of the PCM into existing cars.
It's not that I care too much for those iterations either, but it shows that they are still stuck in the past.

 

[tigerbalm]

It's not that I care too much for those iterations either, but it shows that they are still stuck in the past.

When developing the Taycan they thought their own historical approach is what set the market demands and customer expectations.

But the Taycan attracted a lot of new customers to the brand* where it was their experiences with their own smartphone that had set technology expectations.

Even existing Porsche customers like many on here (and myself) had different expectations of a "computer car" like the Taycan EV – even if we didn't know it ourselves at the time.

I don't know much about former Tesla customers – like yourself – but I'm going to guess that many of them had been burnt a little by some of Tesla's rapid iteration on their software and moving at the pace of Silicon Valley – that the idea of buying something that moves a little slower, more purposeful, that takes design seriously and that has a long legacy probably was something that was actually appealing.

They just didn't realise how glacial VAG companies move. The pendulum – as always – had swung too far in the opposing direction!

Now it's China – having taken "inspiration" from Silicon Valley and manufacturers like Rivian that set the infotainment expectations of the marketplace.

For most of its recent history, the software infotainment and technology packages of their cars has been of 10%** importance to Porsche leadership.

It just didn't make it into their traditional engineering mindset.

It has probably risen to 50%** importance for the average European consumer and if what I've read in the FT can be believed it has become the principal buying decision factor for Chinese consumers.

Here is my one liner for Porsche leadership:

Infotainment and digital UX has become the car, regardless if you agree with that or not.

I don't need Porsche to become Tesla. I actually love what Porsche does. But I need Porsche to understand that the definition of a great car has changed.

Porsche will still do okay out of consumers like me. I'll continue to be obsessed over the most trivial changes made to the next 911. I'll oogle the latest special edition. I'll convince myself that life would be better if I owned the first Irish Green PTS 911 in Ireland (still blows my mind that there has never been one here!).

So the question becomes .... is there enough of me to keep them going or will they change track?

I feel lucky though, our 911 Targa is the perfect car for us – we truly enjoy using it on all our European adventures. Best car – for us – we've ever owned and probably the first car we've had that doesn't make me want the next best thing.

----------
* = Porsche was very excited by this back in 2022 and it contributed to their confidence in IPO'ing.

** = Percentages (like all statistics) are imagined.

 

[BjörnfromHamburg]

"They just didn't realise how glacial VAG companies move. The pendulum – as always – had swung too far in the opposing direction!"

Perfect metaphore!

 

[KLHubb]

"They just didn't realise how glacial VAG companies move. The pendulum – as always – had swung too far in the opposing direction!"

Perfect metaphore!

I agree with you and love my new 2026 Oak Green Metallic 992.2S (admittedly not quite Irish Green). I also have a 2020 Mamba Green metallic Taycan 4S (again not quite Irish Green) As a rule, I have generally kept my Porsches for 10 years before selling them on. However, with the 718E in the offing, I may have to break my rule and perhaps it can be Irish Green. I can readily put up with Porsche's foibles as long as they continue to produce great driving performance.

 

[Fish Fingers]

The "Innovator's Dilemma" is probably the book that best describes whats happening to Porsche. But it is still frustrating to witness. They misread where the market is going so badly, while at the same time being on the beginnings of the right track.

They hoped it was true that "nobody bought a Porsche for infotainment technology", which is probably correct. But they ignored the gap that had built up was becoming too wide. They were selling a Nokia in the era of the iPhone.

I am probably well within their target market. I do care about the legacy of Porsche and do not need the latest technology from them. But the architecture of the PCM currently in 911s and the Taycan is frustratingly stubborn.

That Porsche signed off on Taycan PCM in late 2017 with its misuse of docker, its laggy touch interface and its sluggish update cadence is unfathomable. Both Apple and Google had shown how to deploy billions of "IoT" style devices, how to design their OS (heck Google's was mostly open sourced) and how to do application isolation safely. So had Tesla.

Not only had Porsche (via Audi and VAG) ignored all this, they proudly talked about their own engineering approach in their Porsche Engineering magazine despite it being an insane direction. Those decisions were compounded by "typical" cost engineering that happens at legacy car manufactures where they hampered the bloated PCM software stack with under-resourced memory (and probably compute) to save €100 on cars starting at €100,000.

For me its a window into the cognitive dissonance that Porsche underwent at the time. And they eventually ended up copying the Google approach for the PCM rolling out to Macan, Cayenne and presumably the upcoming 718.

This is mostly linked to their approach to infotainment – and where the Chinese have pulled ahead – the software related to "mechanical engineering" aspects of the car is second-to-none. The software driving rear-wheel steering, PDCC, active-ride or the air suspension is market leading.

The worrying signals coming out of Porsche is that they have stated that they are going to double down on "legacy" aspects such as greater personalisation, more uniqueness and higher end variants.

With the announced reduction in workforce numbers – with the co-operation of the Works Council – I think Porsche are planning for a future where they are a more niche manufacturer, with lower volumes and higher markups.

There are a lot of options at the higher end of the vehicle industry – so they are chasing after a smaller subset of consumers – that have choices from Ferrari, McLaren, Koenigsegg, etc. It will be interesting if a SUV maker like Porsche can pull that off.

But one thing for sure, with so much of their range now over on pure EV – they are taking electrification way more seriously than they are currently being given credit for. They are not pulling back from it, they are just signalling to the market that the days of selling every EV they have capacity to manufacture is no longer happening.

The era of 2022 when they were adding shifts to the Taycan factory in Zuffenhausen are well and truly over.

Here in Ireland, almost nobody is ordering new Taycan's – but second hand cars retailing for about 50% of their original price are "flying off the shelves". They can't keep them in stock at a €55-€65k price point.

Well put.

And the big sticking point I see with Porsche chasing the top end of the market, is that is what they want to do.......but then they rely on the Macan for getting money through the till.

And the base ICE Macan I had as a loaner was diabolical.

Ferrari, Mclaren, Lambo etc don't rely on cheap base models.

Imo you can't have a foot in both camps as one eliminates the other.

 

[logic]

*Please delete this thread* is what I'm thinking, sorry to say it so bluntly, I'm actually afraid that someone at Porsche would listen to the OP.

I have almost ZERO (0,000001) interest in autonomous driving. It's a nice little option to have under certain conditions, but not top of mind (when buying a Porsche). In the 'best of options' ranking, it's somewhere below rubber floor mats for me.

The same with much of the tech on board, agreed, whatever there is should work reliably,
but I'm no fan of putting a lot of effort into unnecessary gimmicks, adding more complexity both from the perspective of a manufacturer nor driver.

You feel me, I'm from the analog generation. I'm very pragmatic (almost skeptic) when it comes to needing a supercomputer on wheels... let the Chinese do whatever they like, but it feels unnecessary and not sustainable.

Porsche shouldn't be doing what generic brands are doing for the general public. Porsche only is in trouble when those generic brands come close (or surpasses) what Porsche stands for. That's the real problem.

Oh boy, why should I be talking to my car or having a conversation with a squirrel, please shoot me. It's when performance, driving feel and pleasure, reliability, quality of manufacturing and materials, looks, ... geeky over engineered mechanics, classic criteria for a sportscar, ... if Porsche gets a beating on those things by an inexperienced Chinese manufacturer, that's when I (and the Porsche board) will realize Porsche is in trouble.

 

[chun]

You feel me, I'm from the analog generation.

dying?

Never seen a company the size of porsche succeed by investing in the past. Most investors are concerned with the future.

but yea, maybe it is a business strategy to reduce Porsche to the size of RUF, instead of buying RUF. 50 cars a year? Definitely no need for tens of thousands of workers in Germany. German economy loves good old coal anyway, so the workers could go back to mining

Need I remind you, porsche is a generic brand. They survive because of VOLUME cars, Macan, Cayenne. Their business doesn’t work without those at the size that Porsche operates.

Porsche did get a beating on those, from Xiaomi, a car with 0 years of experience at that point. Porsche needed a body kit to be king again, for a few more months until Xiaomi releases a body kit also.

The reason they are discontinuing the taycan is because it doesn’t sell a high volume anymore, not because it drives bad. Analog doesn’t sell volume anymore

 

[logic]

Mock all you will, but Porsche isn't for the average person, never is and never should be.

What are you suggesting? Doing what everybody else is doing in a super competitive environment...? That's shark territory in business terms. You would steer Porsche straight into the bloodbath. Cannot disagree more, they need to keep focus, keep their niche and definitely stay away from having to talk to a Squirrel. The market will return since I'm pretty sure the current market isn't sustainable.

Based on thousand of research papers, reducing pollution will do all that, yes.

Fact is, we have direct example, China, where pollution decreased severely after move to EVs for a significant part of the auto market; which reduced temperatures in cities and reduced amount of deaths from pollution and heat waves

And the change happened in less than a decade

Did you know that cleaner air actually warms up the planet quicker?
It's called global brightening effect.
Love the irony.

 

[daveo4EV]

Mock all you will, but Porsche isn't for the average person, never is and never should be.

their top selling cash cow tells a different story in volume, revenue and margin - Macan is for the average person

 

[logic]

their top selling cash cow tells a different story in volume, revenue and margin - Macan is for the average person

Wait what, in what bubble are you living in?

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