Cross shopping w Lucid

jvincent

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I turned my Sept 2020 reservation into an order yesterday. Couldn't (just yet) walk away from the $23,200 total savings with early MSRP and tax credit. Without the Stealth package, probably wouldn't have. Already loved the interior, but now the exterior is so much improved. We'll see where the build quality is by Q2 2023.

Found this in the media kit.

 

jvincent

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Separately, Lucid Group late on Monday filed a “shelf registration” to issue up to $8 billion in new stock over the next three years. A shelf registration gives the company the right to issue the stock as needed.

Lucid said in a statement that its shelf registration is intended to “provide greater flexibility” to raise additional money in the future, and that it has no immediate plans to sell any new stock.

Lucid had $4.6 billion in cash on hand as of the end of the second quarter, enough to fund its operations and capital expenses into next year, it said earlier this month.
The details aren't quite as chilling as your sentiments would indicate.

I think the $4.6 billion in cash and Saudi stake plus orders will keep them afloat. And my $1000 deposit, now non-refundable, so there's that. :)
 

whitex

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The fact that Lucid went public via SPAC wasn't a good sign, but this is the start of the end IMO.
Lucid and Nikola move to raise additional funds as rising costs squeeze EV startups
Companies raise money all the time - it doesn't imply anything negative. Tesla raised $5bn barely a year ago and they are an older, profitable EV maker with orders of magnitude more volume than Lucid. Now, making a headline grouping Lucid and Nikola together, now that's some first class FUD making technique. It would be like publishing an article titled "Porsche and Lada shipping cars missing components" (all true by the way, both manufacturers have supply chain shortages).
 

Mr.Smith

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Companies raise money all the time - it doesn't imply anything negative. Tesla raised $5bn barely a year ago and they are an older, profitable EV maker with orders of magnitude more volume than Lucid. Now, making a headline grouping Lucid and Nikola together, now that's some first class FUD making technique. It would be like publishing an article titled "Porsche and Lada shipping cars missing components" (all true by the way, both manufacturers have supply chain shortages).
Tesla raised $12b and raises money though converts and now ATM secondaries, all for general corporate purposes (whatever that means) these are very negative signs. OEMs do bond offerings for a purpose. VW for more factories etc. Secondary offerings are not common for healthy companies
Tesla will need to raise more money very soon, but Musk needs to sell more shares before that happens

None of these new companies including Tesla have been in a negaive credit or economic cycle. Thats when Auto manufactures die, not when liquidity is through the roof like the past 12 years
 


whitex

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Tesla raised $12b and raises money though converts and now ATM secondaries, all for general corporate purposes (whatever that means) these are very negative signs. OEMs do bond offerings for a purpose. VW for more factories etc. Secondary offerings are not common for healthy companies
Tesla will need to raise more money very soon, but Musk needs to sell more shares before that happens

None of these new companies including Tesla have been in a negaive credit or economic cycle. Thats when Auto manufactures die, not when liquidity is through the roof like the past 12 years
Tesla raised money to finance new factories. Plenty of healthy companies raise money for expansion, and Tesla is expanding faster than any other auto manufacturer ever did. I am not stating Tesla or Lucid are financially healthy or not, I am simply saying the fact that a company raises money does not automatically mean they are in financial trouble.

PS> Porsche is planning an IPO in which they plan to raise money too. Are you going to claim it's not financially healthy because it is raising money?
 

Mr.Smith

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Tesla raised money to finance new factories. Plenty of healthy companies raise money for expansion, and Tesla is expanding faster than any other auto manufacturer ever did. I am not stating Tesla or Lucid are financially healthy or not, I am simply saying the fact that a company raises money does not automatically mean they are in financial trouble.

PS> Porsche is planning an IPO in which they plan to raise money too. Are you going to claim it's not financially healthy because it is raising money?
Every OEM raises 10s in billions. I'm saying how you raise and when you raise dictates your financial health.
Getting a mortgage on your home at the lowest rate vs having to go to a pawn shop.
Serial Convertible bond issuing is not ideal (Tesla did this), but at the money secondaries is pawn shop level (how Tesla does it now)
Tesla not being able to securitize thier last ABS bond offering is not a good sign.
IPO like Rivian is a good sign, SPAC like Lucid is a very bad sign.

I wanted the Lucid, had a reservation on it, I want them to succeed. Rawlinson is a brilliant engineer and deserves his technology to be used at scale, but we are talking auto manufacturering economics not software development or a SaaS company.
The cost of Telsas 2 factories was not $12b
 

whitex

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Every OEM raises 10s in billions. I'm saying how you raise and when you raise dictates your financial health.
Getting a mortgage on your home at the lowest rate vs having to go to a pawn shop.
Serial Convertible bond issuing is not ideal (Tesla did this), but at the money secondaries is pawn shop level (how Tesla does it now)
Tesla not being able to securitize thier last ABS bond offering is not a good sign.
IPO like Rivian is a good sign, SPAC like Lucid is a very bad sign.

I wanted the Lucid, had a reservation on it, I want them to succeed. Rawlinson is a brilliant engineer and deserves his technology to be used at scale, but we are talking auto manufacturering economics not software development or a SaaS company.
The cost of Telsas 2 factories was not $12b
Tesla grew from nothing to more than 10x market cap of VW group, and over 4x the market cap of the next biggest competitor (Toyota) in a decade and half. Maybe the less ideal ways of raising money were all that was available to them at the time, but it also seems that it actually worked. So perhaps Lucid is trying to do the same. If you're going to be successful growing, wouldn't you want to emulate the fastest growing competitor? For all the criticisms of Tesla (and I have plenty), their growth rate is unmatched in the automotive industry. Remember not much more than a decade ago "conventional wisdom" said that there is no way in hell anyone could start a brand new car company and succeed. Then Tesla succeeded, so others, like Lucid, started emulating Tesla. Heck, even the incumbents are emulating Tesla in a number of ways.
 


Mr.Smith

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Tesla grew from nothing to more than 10x market cap of VW group, and over 4x the market cap of the next biggest competitor (Toyota) in a decade and half. Maybe the less ideal ways of raising money were all that was available to them at the time, but it also seems that it actually worked. So perhaps Lucid is trying to do the same. If you're going to be successful growing, wouldn't you want to emulate the fastest growing competitor? For all the criticisms of Tesla (and I have plenty), their growth rate is unmatched in the automotive industry. Remember not much more than a decade ago "conventional wisdom" said that there is no way in hell anyone could start a brand new car company and succeed. Then Tesla succeeded, so others, like Lucid, started emulating Tesla. Heck, even the incumbents are emulating Tesla in a number of ways.
Tesla is a stock promotion and their viability is based on raising money from the stock.
Musk admitted he was weeks from BK in 2019, miraculously there was a "robotaxi" event as part of a $2.4b convertible offering, followed by subsequent ATM stock offerings to raise billions more.
They sell a fraction the cars of any large OEM, yet the stock is worth more than the top companies combined.
Lucid, Niloka, Fisker are emulating Musk, as they should. I don't blame them, though they don't have the access to the capital markets that Musk has.

Rivian will only survive from something related to Amazon.

There is a reason every car company is avoiding EVs and not because it's a gold mine that Tesla magically discovered.
It's not conventional wisdom, it's the economics of running a low margin, high cost business that uses human beings to assemble something. That is a losing proposition and why all car makers declared BK other than Ford.
 

whitex

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There is a reason every car company is avoiding EVs and not because it's a gold mine that Tesla magically discovered.
It's not conventional wisdom, it's the economics of running a low margin, high cost business that uses human beings to assemble something. That is a losing proposition and why all car makers declared BK other than Ford.
Well, if what you're saying is true, all of the old carmakers will start making commercial vehicles only in 2035 when a lot of nations plan to ban ICE passenger cars. That could be a reason why Lucid, RIvian, Tesla, and others will thrive - competition simply bowing out. Of course, you could be wrong, and existing carmakers will get into the EV game after all. I guess only time will tell.
 

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None of these new companies including Tesla have been in a negaive credit or economic cycle. Thats when Auto manufactures die, not when liquidity is through the roof like the past 12 years
not quite right, tesla was "born" during the crisis after obama being elected
 

Mr.Smith

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not quite right, tesla was "born" during the crisis after obama being elected
DOE loans kept them alive, Musk admits they were days away from BK, then another round of financing came in.
They then got a FREE factory in Fremont. Now there are 4 factories that are very large & expensive, 2 are zombie factories.
When financing is tight, access to capital is more difficult, rates are higher, looming recession, then that's when auto makers get hit.

Even the EV maker Faraday Future is still alive due to another round of financing. This will be there last one to keep the lights on for another few months
Sponsored

 
 




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