So are 'new' Turbo S Taycans essentially unsalable at present?

[violuma]

Much of the market expects EVs to be disposable consumer electronics and that's impacting the prices of used cars. That is not the model Porsche has ever used and I hope they don't start now.

I hope everybody (not just Porsche) starts getting off of that viewpoint, because rapid obsolescence damages a lot of the environmental benefits of weaning ourselves away from fossil fuels in the first place.

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[Scandinavian]

It is not only Porsche that have seen a market slowing of interest in EV’s. Harry Metcalfe summarised a lot of different reasons in one of his latest videos. He is A car enthusiast and has been reviewing a lot of PHEV and BEV. I can recognise a lot of these contributing factors for the slowdown. You can easily follow him by listening to this as a podcast.

 

[eisenb11]

I'm pretty sure that EVs are going to depreciate heavily for a while. The tech is just too new and it's evolving at a very quick fast pace. Eventually, it'll slow down but it's going to be the nature of the game for a while.

Porsche could mitigate some of that if they treated their software more like Tesla does. I used to have one and constant updates helped keep it feeling fresh.

Hardware, though, I think is a lost cause. If the tech is changing rapidly do you really want to be held back by trying to figure out how to apply it to an older platform? It's good for us, but I don't think it's good for the manufacturer.

 

[RAHRCR]

Porsche can address this, and probably should. They've always been good about supporting and upgrading older models. I'm unsure how plug and play it would be, but offering a V2 battery upgrade, even if it's absurdly expensive would be a way to indicate they have a long term commitment to their EVs.

Much of the market expects EVs to be disposable consumer electronics and that's impacting the prices of used cars. That is not the model Porsche has ever used and I hope they don't start now.

I agree that Porsche has historically done a nice job with evolving their products with the side benefit of manageable depreciation… for the most part. EV depreciation, in general, seem to be more centered on objective value (like range, efficiency, tech) not like ICE cars which age more gracefully and retain real/ intrinsic value based on design style, build quality, how they make you feel.

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

Put plainly, the consumer is having second thoughts.

(probably paywalled) The Six Months That Short-Circuited the Electric-Vehicle Revolution - WSJ

"[Ford CEO] Farley and other industry CEOs are still confident that EVs will eventually take off, albeit at a slower pace than initially envisioned. But for now, the massive miscalculation has left the industry in a bind, facing a potential glut of EVs and half-empty factories while still having to meet stricter environmental regulations globally. "

"Then warning signs began to appear. In mid-January of last year, Tesla slashed prices on some models by more than 20%, triggering a chain reaction.

“Why cut EV prices when demand is greater than supply?” Bank of America analyst John Murphy wondered.

Musk insisted that there was no demand problem. The company was trying to broaden appeal by making its cars more affordable, he told analysts."

"The wave of early EV adopters willing to splurge had receded, and the next round of potential customers was proving more hesitant. They had more questions about how far a car could go on a single charge, and the life expectancy of batteries. They worried about charging times, repair costs, and not having enough places to plug in, according to dealers and surveys.

Interest rates were rising, pushing up monthly payments on EVs, which already were selling, on average, for about $14,000 more per vehicle than gas-engine models, according to research firm J.D. Power. "

"Late last July, GM’s Barra told analysts plenty of consumers still wanted the company’s EVs. “These vehicles are getting to the dealers’ lots, and if they’re not already sold, they’ve got a list of people who are waiting for them,” she said.

Two days later, Ford’s Farley struck a different tone. “The paradigm has shifted,” he told analysts. Although consumers were still buying EVs, Ford’s pricing power was deteriorating compared with gas-engine models, he said, and the market for EVs would remain volatile.

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois asked Farley what had changed. “A few weeks ago when we saw you in Detroit…it’s like you had religion” on EVs, he told the CEO.

Farley replied that Ford was responding to market realities. "

" The unraveling came swiftly. In a single month last fall, the average interest rate on an electric-car purchase jumped from 4.9% to 7%, making monthly payments even less affordable for some shoppers, said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics for J.D. Power."

"Some auto retailers say that they are now selling EVs at a loss to clear unwanted inventory.

Jolliffe, whose car dealership is a 25-minute drive from the Lightning plant, is struggling to understand what happened. On a recent weekday, he peeked out his window at eight Lightnings and four Mach-Es.

“Nobody’s opening the door” to check them out, he said. “There just seems to be this hesitancy that is hitting hard.” "

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

And here's another interesting tidbit:
" Farley said Thursday that while EV demand is slower than expected for consumers, fleet customers are actually adopting all-electric vehicles faster than the company had anticipated. "

which absolutely makes sense, because fleet vehicles have less 'random' travel schedules, have access (perhaps) to private charging and so on.

(from Ford CEO tells Wall Street to forget Tesla, says 'Pro' business is the future of the auto industry (msn.com) )

 

[Boss Hogg]

excellent video posted by Scandinavian, summarises the various forces at play very well.

Porsche should give the guy in the original video a GT3 RS allocation to stop making videos about them!

 

[Mrh335]

My personal thought is the used car value for any of these Taycans is plummeting because of how wildly expensive the cars are presently and how their prices have steadily increased since introduction relative to their perceived value of buyers.

The secondary car market to me screams that the new car price is completely off base with the value that people see in these cars. Die hard fans will pay full or over MSRP, but that list of people is shrinking. There are so many cars that offer high performance, high quality, luxury, etc. Porsche can and will charge a premium for their product, but the premium they are charging is approaching 100% more compared to others. There is no perfect EV out there that offers everything to everyone including the Taycan, but in order for it to have real value in the primary and secondary market, it needs to price itself closer to the "competition" even if the competition does many things not as well. There are trucks and SUVs that can go 0-60 mph in 3.0 seconds, sedans big and small that can handle a track day, luxury cars, trucks, and SUVs. More competition than ever with more cars in close performance than ever. Therefore, Porsche needs to clearly differentiate itself and needs to charge a premium over competition, but more like 20%. Some dealers have been moving vehicles when reducing prices $20k to $40k which is where I think the MSRP should be. At prices like this, the secondary market values may stay where they are today, but the percentage depreciation will be much lower. Hopefully the pricing of the Macan will seem more reasonable to buyers and the value will be there more than the Taycan. If it is, I think it helps to solidify the value of these vehicles and how a properly priced car will attract more buyers.

I think another factor is the disposability of an EV that now looks more like a consumer electronic with a shorter life than ICE car. Yes, there is an 8 year battery warranty, but this should be followed up with a reasonable replacement cost of the battery that isn't terrifying like the $40k some have quoted. Make it a $10k replacement at a loss for Porsche, but at the same time, reducing the fears of buying a used Taycan.

 

[utsteve98]

All this reminds me of a book I read back in college called Crossing the Chasm which looks at the lifecycle of technology and why some technology fails to become accepted by the masses. The chasm exists between early adopters and early mainstream users, which is where we are in the market. This article talks about that chasm specifically with EVs.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/were-finally-crossing-the-chasm-with-electric-vehicles

And if you want a deeper dive of this marketing phenomenon see this article.

https://www.hightechstrategies.com/crossing-the-chasm-summary/

 

[LXSC]

Fundamentally, the value proposition of very high priced EVs is in jeopardy. This is not just a Porsche problem. Future models will not be immune to this. Will be interesting to see how this shapes the future.

About Porsche Gen 2
Every day cars are there to be driven and should not be considered an investment. As for releasing the next generation it should be a good thing.
At least there aren't that many Porsche Tycans.

Compared with Teslas. that was a major disaster as they even reduced the price considerably. For example I purchased the Tesla model S with a ludicrous plus for over one $172K. Now one can buy the per Plaid for under $105K
Tesla has become a common car today.
At least with the Porsche the average people will not know the difference between Gen 1 and Gen 2.
It Is not the looks, the range is the important matter here.
In fact I prefer the previous looks compared with the new Gen2. The previous looks like her rear Porsche, more curvy while the new one looks like a Lambo. And the square 914 look. I feel the 914 was a disaster. The only concern I have is loosing the Porsche identity. But that in turn could be considered evolution.
Even though we are financially affected I believe world has to progress.

If Porsche can UPGRAGE the battery that would be a great consolation prize.

 

[LXSC]

If Porsche can use subgrade battery that would be a great consolation prize.

 

[violuma]

Well aware that this risks skating dangerously close to political territory, both macroeconomics and aggregate microeconomics (sort of Asimov's "psychohistory" for econ nerds) tend to see fairly significant lag effects. So a policy change that happens now may not be felt in the marketplace for months. For a variety of reasons, the US made a conscious decision to try to artificially depress retail gasoline prices, selling off a significant part of its strategic oil reserves last year.

I'm not saying this is the factor to end all factors, but I am saying I think it would be remiss not to at least consider whether it might have had a measurable impact, especially if you consider it as a delta from where it looked like retail gas prices were going in the 12 months before that.

 

[Stevial]

Gentlemen, take it from someone who has owned 4 electric cars, Taycan turbo, jaguar i-pace, Audi Etron, and an Audi Etron S. The problem is

1) This is the major problem - Infrastructure, not enough charging stations, and what we do have is complete garbage, there uptime is soooo bad, either 25-50% of them aren’t working properly or just not working at all, and again there just isn’t enough, I have arrived at charging stations that don’t work, aren’t where the navigation said there were or I have gotten constant charging error messages and couldn’t use the charger, and I have used them all, EVgo, Chargepoint, Apple green, etc….

2) Too many Electric cars and not enough infrastructure, to be precise, extremely slow charging electric cars, I.e Toyota/subaru,s, Kia, Chevy bolts, Nissan Ariya, and many more, to be honest, they aren’t many electric cars that actually charge quickly besides the lucid, Porsche audi etron and the Kia/hyundai/genesis on the new charging platform, I.e the ioniq 5, Kia EV6 etc…. Coupled with everyone wanting to charge to 100% because they want more range, then cab drivers using them as taxis and rental car companies using them, you end with extremely long lines at charging stations, and if you are travelling and get to one of these stations with a low SOC, you have no choice but to wait 4- 5 hours (if no one decides to leave) and this is not an exaggeration, I have experienced it multiple times, especially at EA stations, it’s a complete shit show, fights arguments. And when you finally get to a charger, it charges extremely slow or you have a problem charging (charging error).

In the beginning (4 years ago) it was great, you could pull up to a charger and one would always be available, now, you have fords, BMWs, audi, Porsche, Kia, Hyundai, genesis, lucid, rivian, vw, polestar, jaguar (I hardly see those) fisker, Mercedes, cadillac, vinfast, I’m sure I missing one or 2. And this is especially happening in the northeast. If you are moving around a lot like me, it’s no longer workable, even when I charge at home to 95%, if it’s under 50 degrees and I’m moving from meeting to meeting , I’m always charging, and it wouldn’t be that bad if I didnt have to wait 3-4 hours just to charge and when you finally get your turn it’s charging slow cause you battery is cold from waiting, which now makes your charging time even longer

3) Cost -
when all your free charging has expired, it’s more expensive than gas, the cost of charging has doubled, I have done the math, 64 cents per kilowatt is the going rate, it’s cost about $60 if you were to go from empty to full on a 82 kilowatt usable capacity battery and the price could go up depending on if they are charging by the minute or by the kilowatt, on my Taycan I got about 225 on the GOM, if it were cold or raining, I would only get about 160 maybe, a tank of gas might cost 80-90 bucks and take you about 400 miles

trips are taking so much longer when you get to a station you have to wait for 3-5 cars to charge ahead of you

I took a trip to stony point New York from queens New York, I left with 96%SOC, I go there with 35% SOC, I had stop at an EA on my way back home, 3 out 4 chargers were out, and a BMW was charging on the only working station, I waited 1 hour and 10 minutes, then the charger would,nt go about 82kw.

Even if I wanted to get out of my cars lease, I would take such a bath

The cost of insurance is more expensive on these cars, and I see on the new Taycan it’s only 1 year of free charging, smh. After all of that I was still thinking of getting another, it’s the best driving car I have ever had, but the inconvenience has gotten so much worse, 30-40 of Dc charging was cool, the high insurance was, hmmmm, not really ok, but I lived with it , but now, that additional inconvenience of the time that gets wasted, it just won’t work, so after realising all of that, I can see why they aren’t selling and the are depreciating, it’s not really the car, even so, it’s the infrastructure, and cheap electric cars that charge slowly

one more thing, everyone thinks that when Tesla opens up there network everything will magically get better, you are sorely mistaken, like Apple, teslas hardware and software work together to give a better charging experience, you start to introduce different manufacturers vehicle with different protocols, hardware software etc…and you still have slow charging vehicles, not to mention most superchargers are still running on a 400v architecture, all you have is clogged up Tesla super chargers, the Toyota bz4x takes about 3 hours to dc charge, I’ve timed them at the charging stations, all the taxi cabs are using them now. And there is approximately 3-5 of them at any given time at my local EA station and I see them charging all over the northeast, and it’s not the only vehicle that takes a long time to charge

 

[gnop1950]

Gentlemen, take it from someone who has owned 4 electric cars, Taycan turbo, jaguar i-pace, Audi Etron, and an Audi Etron S. The problem is
...

3) Cost -
when all your free charging has expired, it’s more expensive than gas, the cost of charging has doubled, I have done the math, 64 cents per kilowatt is the going rate, it’s cost about $60 if you were to go from empty to full on a 82 kilowatt usable capacity battery and the price could go up depending on if they are charging by the minute or by the kilowatt, on my Taycan I got about 225 on the GOM, if it were cold or raining, I would only get about 160 maybe, a tank of gas might cost 80-90 bucks and take you about 400 miles

trips are taking so much longer when you get to a station you have to wait for 3-5 cars to charge ahead of you

....

While I don't necessarily agree with all of your points, this is the one that seems the most problematic to me. Occasional road trips aside, many, perhaps most of us, do the majority of our charging at home and the cost will vary a lot depending on the locality. In my case I live in Southern Arizona, I do 90%+ of my charging at home. I also have a Solar system that, during the day, produces more power than I consume so most of my charging is done during the day.

Now the cooperative that provides my electricity has some strange provisions for those of us with Solar systems. Our cost per Kwh, for Solar users, is reduced to approximately 8 cents from about 12 cents, but they only buy back overproduction at 50% of that or approximately 4 cents. So my cost for charging my car at home is approximately 4 cents per kilowatt.

So, at least for me, my overall expenditure for fueling my EV is much much less that it is for my Ice car and truck. Even with the occasional longer road trip, and DC charging, fueling my EV won't come close to the cost of fueling either of my two Ice vehicles.

 

[mcr21]

About Porsche Gen 2
Every day cars are there to be driven and should not be considered an investment. As for releasing the next generation it should be a good thing.
At least there aren't that many Porsche Tycans.

Compared with Teslas. that was a major disaster as they even reduced the price considerably. For example I purchased the Tesla model S with a ludicrous plus for over one $172K. Now one can buy the per Plaid for under $105K
Tesla has become a common car today.
At least with the Porsche the average people will not know the difference between Gen 1 and Gen 2.
It Is not the looks, the range is the important matter here.
In fact I prefer the previous looks compared with the new Gen2. The previous looks like her rear Porsche, more curvy while the new one looks like a Lambo. And the square 914 look. I feel the 914 was a disaster. The only concern I have is loosing the Porsche identity. But that in turn could be considered evolution.
Even though we are financially affected I believe world has to progress.

If Porsche can UPGRAGE the battery that would be a great consolation prize.

Some great points. I’d call the refresh Gen 1.5, more than just superficial changes but principally the same design and technological underpinnings.

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