"The Facts Are In: You Shouldn't Worry About EV Battery Replacements" - articles

[Tooney]

The Facts Are In: You Shouldn't Worry About EV Battery Replacements

New Data: How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Last? Recurrent

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[DerekS]

Another factor is the Taycan battery was (as I understand it) designed to be replaced on a per-module basis, so even if something went pretty bad outside of battery warranty, you most likely would not need an entire new one.

 

[69Mach390]

The Facts Are In: You Shouldn't Worry About EV Battery Replacements

New Data: How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Last? Recurrent

Fear doesn’t come from frequency.

It comes from intensity.

It’s rare to be attacked by a shark. But it’s a big deal if you do. So people don’t go swimming in shark infested waters at night.

Yeah, like the article states, a car sold after 2022 isn’t likely to have a full battery replaced at this point. And if it is, it’s under warranty. But people are worried about the 8+ year old EVs and the $30-50k cost to swap out a battery. And that 8.5% number for those older models IS pretty high.

1 in 12? I don’t like those odds. I doubt ICE vehicles of that era have a 1 in 12 chance of a complete motor failure. And even if it did, it’s like 1/4 the cost to replace a motor.

 

[ze_shark]

Exactly. Nobody purchases insurance based on averages.

"Just 2% of EVs sold from 2017-2021 have had their batteries replaced, Recurrent says."

It is cute to write this about cars which are 4 to 8 years old, while the economic viability of BEVs hinges on them lasting 20y+, and thereby match ICE median vehicle ages. Crowdsourced data falls way short in my opinion.

We have not yet seen large volume BEVs even come close to demonstrating how they hold over time on any significant scale. The heavily publicized outlier high mileage Model S examples pretty much demonstrated the opposite.

 

[69Mach390]

Exactly. Nobody purchases insurance based on averages.

"Just 2% of EVs sold from 2017-2021 have had their batteries replaced, Recurrent says."

It is cute to write this about cars which are 4 to 8 years old, while the economic viability of BEVs hinges on them lasting 20y+, and thereby match ICE median vehicle ages. Crowdsourced data falls way short in my opinion.

We have not yet seen large volume BEVs even come close to demonstrating how they hold over time on any significant scale. The heavily publicized outlier high mileage Model S examples pretty much demonstrated the opposite.

I don’t love all the FUD around EVs, but honestly these “everything is wonderful!” articles aren’t much better.

I do appreciate that they at least used some raw data, but I don’t think the headline and the article are in alignment.

Hopefully the manufacturers figure out a better way to design and fix individual cells.

The problem with individual cell replacement isn’t the ability to do it, but rather the difficulty to diagnose and the labor time involved in testing individual cells to find the issue. And even if you find the bad ones, it’s a bit like having a flat tire when you already have 20,000 miles on the tires. Do you replace just the one brand new tire when the other 3 are worn?

 

[MrJones02]

I think its still silly almost every car manufacturer does its own thing.
For electric bicycles most manufacturers use a Bosch motor (different types to choose from), a Bosch battery-pack (different sizes to choose from) and a Bosch screen/computer ... super easy to get parts even 10 years later.

But for cars, every manufacturer is doing its own thing ... and they are not always very good at it.

They could focus on just making the car, modular battery-cells will allow them to still make the designs they want, tune the motors to their liking and maybe develop a skin for the user-interface to match their style.

 

[jim07044]

I think the problem faces EVs on the secondary (used) market. These cars are already 3-5 yrs old and the next owner would like to keep the car for another 5-10 yrs. Battery condition is not easily demonstrable prior to purchase and its life cycle is an unknown quantity dependent on prior use. So, yes, battery replacement is a real fear when considering used EVs.

 

[69Mach390]

I think its still silly almost every car manufacturer does its own thing.
For electric bicycles most manufacturers use a Bosch motor (different types to choose from), a Bosch battery-pack (different sizes to choose from) and a Bosch screen/computer ... super easy to get parts even 10 years later.

But for cars, every manufacturer is doing its own thing ... and they are not always very good at it.

They could focus on just making the car, modular battery-cells will allow them to still make the designs they want, tune the motors to their liking and maybe develop a skin for the user-interface to match their style.

To be fair, they really aren’t all doing their own thing. Lots of manufacturers are using the same suppliers for their batteries.

The top 5 battery manufacturers supply 75% of the world’s supply and top 10 are over 90%.

That said, car manufacturers have much larger supply chains and much deeper pockets than electric bikes. They can afford to develop their own tech. There is lots of money to be made by staying ahead of the competition tech wise.

They’re also working on and using modular designs. But just for themselves to use.

 

[snstevens]

Fear doesn’t come from frequency.

It comes from intensity.

It’s rare to be attacked by a shark. But it’s a big deal if you do. So people don’t go swimming in shark infested waters at night.

Yeah, like the article states, a car sold after 2022 isn’t likely to have a full battery replaced at this point. And if it is, it’s under warranty. But people are worried about the 8+ year old EVs and the $30-50k cost to swap out a battery. And that 8.5% number for those older models IS pretty high.

1 in 12? I don’t like those odds. I doubt ICE vehicles of that era have a 1 in 12 chance of a complete motor failure. And even if it did, it’s like 1/4 the cost to replace a motor.

We are talking Porsche vehicles here right? Porsche ICE engine replacement is right in line with the full battery replacement on a Taycan. Open your wallet either way.

Information from Perplexity.ai shows the following --

 

[69Mach390]

We are talking Porsche vehicles here right? Porsche ICE engine replacement is right in line with the full battery replacement on a Taycan. Open your wallet either way.

Information from Perplexity.ai shows the following --

That’s fair. Porsche engines are going to be much more in line with battery costs.

But I would bet the frequency of a full engine replacement for a 10 yr old Porsche isn’t nearly 8.5% like the article said for a complete battery replacement.

How often do you hear of someone with $40k in engine repairs for their 911?

 

[snstevens]

I've searched for hard data on this question (how many full battery replacements for the Porsche Taycan), but the evidence is only anecdotal, and indicates that despite our fears, the frequency of full battery replacement is very low.

The key wording from the searches I've done is this --

But let me add that I'm right there with you! I don't want to have to eat the cost of replacing my battery either

 

[69Mach390]

I've searched for hard data on this question (how many full battery replacements for the Porsche Taycan), but the evidence is only anecdotal, and indicates that despite our fears, the frequency of full battery replacement is very low.

The key wording from the searches I've done is this --

But let me add that I'm right there with you! I don't want to have to eat the cost of replacing my battery either

My guess is that we are still in the “very rare” timeframe.

But there aren’t any 10 year old Taycans either yet.

Anyone who’s kept a cell phone or laptop a bit too long knows what happens to lithium ion batteries over time.

Age isn’t kind to them.

This kinda blew my mind the first time I saw it. Before that I thought BeV batteries were more complicated than this:

This SNL skit isn’t that far off of the truth:

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