Depreciation of the 2025 Taycan

[Cuisle]

I want to share my thoughts regarding depreciation of the updated Taycan. As I decided to swap my 2020 Taycan to the updated version, I've been thinking about this a bit.

First of all, there are obviously a multitude of reasons why the Taycan has depreciated significantly but to me there are a couple of key reasons that are not talked about enough:

1. It is a car model that was launched during the largest money printing episode in modern history. There was a lot of money in circulation and a lot of people could afford to buy a Taycan, or at least thought they could afford one.

2. Taycan is a mainstream luxury car. The amounts sold are massive. Someone countered my argument in Facebook saying "why doesn't the 911 depreciate like this?", well, the most important rule in economics is supply and demand. I looked at the amount of 2020+ Taycan's in sale in Finland and the amount of year model 2020+ 911s on sale in Finland and the current amounts are: Taycans on sale: 173, 911s on sale: 18. People bought a huge amount of Taycan's during the zero interest rate period but not a lot of 911s.

3. Now we live in a new economic reality. Every single mainstream luxury car is depreciating a lot because so many are selling them, and fewer are buying them. Model to model there are of course differences, but broadly speaking the same economic reality affects everything. Note that it is important to differentiate between mainstream luxury cars and niche luxury cars. Niche luxury cars are not necessarily hit in the same way, as they might not have experienced such a boom during the zero interest rate period.

Now with that being said, let's discuss the reality of the 2025 Taycan. It is more expensive, fairly competitive in its specs to rivals and it has been launched during a new tighter economic reality. Also there are other contributing factors such as some people being worried about Taycans reliability.

What all of this means is that the order amounts of the new Taycan will likely be significantly smaller than with the old Taycan and therefore I do not expect us to see boatloads of them on sale in a year or two. The used car market of the new Taycan will have a far smaller supply than what we currently see with the old Taycan. Also the specs of the new Taycan will probably hold up well to rivals in the next few years at least, which is a less of a factor but a factor nonetheless.

So to finalize my point, I believe the 2025 Taycan will depreciate a bit slower than the old Taycan, as it is launched during a tighter economic reality and the used car market for that car will have a significantly smaller supply than we are now seeing with the old one. I look forward to seeing stats of how many of these Porsche are selling, as I strongly believe the sales will be smaller than the Taycan sales in the past.

The availability of 2023 and 2024 Taycan will drag down resale values. It’s inevitable.
and 23/24 Taycan have tanked.

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[utsteve98]

A Tesla Plaid is in this range and very comparable.

I suppose it’s the same price point. But I have zero interest in Tesla. Don’t care for the look. But it’s all preference. I have no data to rely on but I suspect there isn’t much cross-shopping between a 100k+ Tesla vs a Taycan at same price. I could be wrong though.

 

[whitex]

I suppose it’s the same price point. But I have zero interest in Tesla. Don’t care for the look. But it’s all preference. I have no data to rely on but I suspect there isn’t much cross-shopping between a 100k+ Tesla vs a Taycan at same price. I could be wrong though.

There is definitely cross shopping. When I was shopping for my Taycan I talked to a lot of SA's, they mentioned quite a large percentage of people looking for a Taycan were Tesla drivers. At one dealer organized event for future owners, Tesla was the most represented brand in the customer parking lot.

 

[D00]

I appreciate OP wants to think changing to a face lift version is a good idea. It won’t be. As many have said, who’s going to buy a new facelift when they could pick up a nearly new (or new) mk1 for literally £50k less. The slight range upgrade and slightly faster charging is not enough - let’s face it - it’s 99% the same car. This is not Taycan 2.

I do however agree that less new cars will be sold (for the reasons above) and therefore used cars become more attractive. And voila, the values of the mk1 will correct.

I posted on the other thread but I spec’d a facelift 4S ST to my current GTS ST spec and it was £140k… madness. How even the craziest of man maths make this work I don’t know? Even with a 10% discount this would be £40k more than my 350mile, 3month GTS…

Again, as I’ve said before… we all know depreciation is volatile so:

-Lease it - hand it back
-PCP it - hand it back

That way depreciation really does not matter… You literally have cost certainty when you buy the bloody thing!

Depreciation and uncertain/low residuals is factored into PCP/Lease payment amounts. ICE vehicles will cost less.

 

[D00]

I suppose it’s the same price point. But I have zero interest in Tesla. Don’t care for the look. But it’s all preference. I have no data to rely on but I suspect there isn’t much cross-shopping between a 100k+ Tesla vs a Taycan at same price. I could be wrong though.

A 54k new Model 3 with improved interior and the best range, or a 3-4 year old used Taycan with degraded range?

 

[Longy_UK]

Depreciation and uncertain/low residuals is factored into PCP/Lease payment amounts. ICE vehicles will cost less.

No they won’t…. My RS6 depreciated more through a PCP. Fact. I have the figures.

You cannot compare a 600bhp Porsche with an Audi A3…

The equivalent value and performance ICE (I.e the RS6) is what needs to be looked at…

 

[D00]

No they won’t…. My RS6 depreciated more through a PCP. Fact. I have the figures.

You cannot compare a 600bhp Porsche with an Audi A3…

The equivalent value and performance ICE (I.e the RS6) is what needs to be looked at…

An RS6 is niche, it isn’t your average ICE? It sells in the low hundreds per year?
An equivalent value Cayenne will cost you much less than a Taycan in overall lease price.

 

[Longy_UK]

An RS6 is niche, it isn’t your average ICE? It sells in the low hundreds per year?
An equivalent value Cayenne will cost you much less than a Taycan in overall lease price.

My point exactly… the Taycan ‘should’ also be niche as it’s a 4 door, 600bhp Porsche (think panmera). But for various reasons many people got into one based on company tax breaks etc hence the volume on the market. There are other posts on here about this but how many company car drivers swapped their A4’s and 320d’s for a Taycan given the tax incentives.

How people expect a £100k+ car such as this to be worth more than 50% in 3 years is beyond me.

Oh and on the cayenne point.

My GTS - 85k - residual 52.5k
Cayenne ICE - £91k - residual £48k

Porsche pcp - same age - similar miles - same term.

 

[Finbo]

Oh and on the cayenne point.

My GTS - 85k - residual 52.5k
Cayenne ICE - £91k - residual £48k

Porsche pcp - same age - similar miles - same term.

Same list price? Just interested

 

[BIll]

"I believe the 2025 Taycan will depreciate a bit slower than the old Taycan"

There is a pot of gold at the end of a Rainbow.

 

[D00]

My point exactly… the Taycan ‘should’ also be niche as it’s a 4 door, 600bhp Porsche (think panmera). But for various reasons many people got into one based on company tax breaks etc hence the volume on the market. There are other posts on here about this but how many company car drivers swapped their A4’s and 320d’s for a Taycan given the tax incentives.

How people expect a £100k+ car such as this to be worth more than 50% in 3 years is beyond me.

Oh and on the cayenne point.

My GTS - 85k - residual 52.5k
Cayenne ICE - £91k - residual £48k

Porsche pcp - same age - similar miles - same term.

The supply numbers and Audi similarities mean that the Taycan isn’t niche/special. 5000 Taycans were sold in 2022. Currently Porsche are listing over 900 new & used Taycans for sale. I certainly wish I was buying now.
Arguably the Panamera’s numbers make it niche. There’s only 120 of those from 2020 onwards currently available for sale.
Maybe your Taycan is your niche. Mine is v nice, but iffy build quality poor dealer support and whopping depreciation mean it is less special to me than my Cayenne.

My Cayenne vs Taycan lease comparison was from leasing.com if you wish to check. Current Taycan over supply will influence deals. 900+ is a lot to shift in today’s market. There’s probably more in a compound somewhere that haven’t yet been listed They’ll likely build the 2025 one to order.

 

[Longy_UK]

Evening @D00

I do agree with what you’re saying but I think we’re going off track here. Whether you class the car a niche or not my point is that it is a £100k+ four door performance car. That bracket plummet like a rock whether they are ICE or electric. That’s just the way it is.

The build numbers you’re talking about are because of the cheap company car deals and incentive's (salary sacrifice etc) meaning more £100k motors were being sold than would normally. You don’t see many M5’s being run ‘through the business’ do you. Funny thing is that these buyers simply handed them back and didn’t get stung. ‘Real’ buyers did as a result. But this is slowing, if not stopping now so when the ‘used’ stock drys up values will normalise; in fact I noticed mine has gone up £10k on wbac this week.

I constantly refer back to my RS6 as it was the same value and same performance and the real world depreciation was, in fact very similar. It irks me when people moan about Taycan running costs (not saying you are)… like seriously… run a 600bhp ICE.

I guess what I’m neglecting to consider is that I bought my car ‘new’ for £47,500 less than its list price. So I’ve missed the majority of pain. And of course your lease deals are new, I was comparing used of same value etc.

Your points on build quality etc I don’t agree with… Have you sat in a £130k RS6 recently with a pleather everywhere? But again the GTS with GTS interior pack is a pretty special place to be.

Either way I do hope for all of our sakes that the values even out. I’m optimistic!

Cheers

 

[nycebo]

The level of cognitive bias in this thread is surreal. The only reason we saw sticky prices for a while was because of shortages due to COVID and the sinking of the transatlantic cargo ship.

Hate to break it to all new Taycan buyers but it will age (depreciate) like the Panamera. Period. This is the age old conversation between folks who want new, and new features, and those that want value, and slightly older features. Nothing more, nothing less.

The debate about the EV technology pace of growth is laughable, however. Candidly for 95 percent of driving, there's no difference between the first Taycan and the new one. I have buddies with very old Teslas and they are still tickled pick by their EVs. That line of thinking is directly enjoyed by all the marketers at all the EVs. The only risk one might want to mitigate is to ensure that the battery itself is still under warranty. But I believe the EVs are more durable than ICE cars. For the record, has anyone forgotten about 911 IMS, RMS, and cylinder scoring?

Anyway, to the OP, if your heart yearns for a 2025, chapeau. Enjoy life. New cars vs used cars has always been a battle of heart vs head.

 

[MAPC]

The notion that EVs are going to be like phones or laptops just because they have a battery is ridiculous, sorry.

Leaving aside that people have been keeping laptops longer and longer for years now, and people are keeping phones longer and longer as well, there’s just no comparison with a car.

It’s crazy how irrational people are with EVs (even people that like them and own them!)

A car is a massive purchase. It’s still completely functional even when a new one comes out. ICE innovation, and perceived obsolescence, has been non stop as well, but people have decided to now pretend that’s not true.

The depreciation of premium performance ICE cars with four doors from Germany has been horrible for 30 years, but again people pretend that’s not true.

ICE takes a huge efficiency hit in winter, but no one ever cared. Somehow now people are obsessed with winter efficiency. Same with “range”. Everyone now has a “need” to drive 300 miles plus, with only 3 minutes of stopping, even though data proves 90% of people do that once a year at most.

Most of the bullshit around EVs today, pumped endlessly by the media, is massively exaggerated. Sure EVs are depreciating a bit more than similar ICE (which in the case of the Taycan is the Panny, so please stop comparing to the 911), but the difference is nominal and that nominal difference can easily be explained by the various tax incentives on new leases and on the insane level of FUD that for sure influences people.

As for batteries and battery life, batteries last ages, are warrantied for ages, rarely just “completely die”, and individual cells can absolutely get repaired. Just like engines and transmissions, two huge ticket ICE components that people now pretend last forever. Taycan batteries aren’t magically different. Indy shops will pave the way here. Does anyone get their 993 rebuild done by Porsche?

TLDR is: Anyone buying a four door Porsche sedan needs to be ready to pay to play. ICE vs EV doesn’t really matter, and “new model vs old” is unlikely to make a giant difference either way.

INCREDIBLY well stated...so much emotion and misinformation out there. THIS is all 100% correct!

 

[MAPC]

A 54k new Model 3 with improved interior and the best range, or a 3-4 year old used Taycan with degraded range?

....I suppose that depends on how much increased range is to you....and also a willingness to own a car that is still (even with improvements) FAR below Porsche in terms of interior fit and finish and....OH YEAH...driving experience!

Don't get me wrong- I am not anti-Tesla (I have owned three and loved them all) but there is no comparison to the driving experience and interior quality of the Taycan.

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