Depreciation of the 2025 Taycan

[Mr.Smith]

TL;DR
If you want a Taycan, you will be required to take a hit on depreciation if you purchase, or horrible lease payments.

As someone that deals with wholesale prices on cars, a big factor in used prices is repair costs.
J1 is $50k for a new battery pack, needs more maintenance than other EVs. This will negatively affect used prices which affects RV. This is why depreciation is worse than Panamera

911 is an enthusiast sports cars that is somewhat exempt from the repair rule. McLaren resale sucks for this reason too.

Taycan also had big discounts before the pandemic and Porsche financial services set an unattractive RV/MF for the lease because they know it will not hold its value.
The higher the variant, the lower the RV. A Turbo S will have a lower RV than a Turbo, and a Turbo lower than a GTS. I saw video that was hinting the Turbo GT will be even worse.
Porsche also has MRM that caps how much you can residualize.

As a rule of thumb we should treat EVs as cell phone. Use it short term knowing there is a better one with better technology around the corner. Proof is the battery tech in the J1 ii

Sponsored

 

[JimBob]

You can add this to the pot also. Porsche is now a public company so the finance and marketing guys can easily end up calling the shots. Thank goodness the engineers are still building the cars. But at some point the directions come down, "well if we use some plastic here and some there we can save....."

 

[Jonathan S.]

I’m pretty sure the low used prices of our 2020-2024 Taycans will have an effect on 2025+ used Taycans, pulling them downwards with them.

Quoted for emphasis. (In agreement.)

The other major factor is the relatively large gap between retail vs wholesale prices for any high-end low-volume vehicle.
So if you buy a 2025 Taycan right now then try to sell it even before driving it home from the dealer you will still take a big hit.
That differential is even larger with the Porsche a la carte options.
Chances that I will be interested in a used CT 4 or 4S in a few years? High!
Chances that even I single one will be for sale with RAS, HUD, active suspension, all ADAS except PID, roof rails, 2+1, and 14-way seats? Based on my searching last summer, almost zero.

 

[Singularity]

As someone that deals with wholesale prices on cars, a big factor in used prices is repair costs.
J1 is $50k for a new battery pack, needs more maintenance than other EVs. This will negatively affect used prices which affects RV. This is why depreciation is worse than Panamera

Good points in the thread about repair costs. I believe this is a problem with EVs in general as the battery replacement cost is so significant. And it's especially a problem with Porsche as the costs are even higher.

This issue is getting more and more attention also due to the environmental impact of this. Having to replace the entire battery is quite a waste and then in many cases EVs just get thrashed as replacing the battery is too expensive.

I believe things will change in the future. Batteries will become easier and cheaper to repair, recycling will be more efficient and so on.

But as the new Taycan is, as far as I know, still using pretty much similar battery tech from this perspective, the depreciation might be quite close to the older models.

 

[Mr.Smith]

Good points in the thread about repair costs. I believe this is a problem with EVs in general as the battery replacement cost is so significant. And it's especially a problem with Porsche as the costs are even higher.

This issue is getting more and more attention also due to the environmental impact of this. Having to replace the entire battery is quite a waste and then in many cases EVs just get thrashed as replacing the battery is too expensive.

I believe things will change in the future. Batteries will become easier and cheaper to repair, recycling will be more efficient and so on.

But as the new Taycan is, as far as I know, still using pretty much similar battery tech from this perspective, the depreciation might be quite close to the older models.

The battery can not be repaired by a non franchise dealer in the reconditioning phase of buying a used car. That's where your money is as a dealer.
This is why used Toyota trucks can command high used prices as so many years. It costs nothing to fix by any mechanic.

Better chemistry and parts used for the J1 ii for improvement in charging and Less weight

 

[RAHRCR]

I still maintain that EVs will follow an iphone type curve in terms of value. 911 is more akin to Rolex. I dont ever see an iphone holding any real value over time and I think the Taycan (like other EVs) will suffer the same fate.

 

[Longy_UK]

I appreciate OP wants to think changing to a face lift version is a good idea. It won’t be. As many have said, who’s going to buy a new facelift when they could pick up a nearly new (or new) mk1 for literally £50k less. The slight range upgrade and slightly faster charging is not enough - let’s face it - it’s 99% the same car. This is not Taycan 2.

I do however agree that less new cars will be sold (for the reasons above) and therefore used cars become more attractive. And voila, the values of the mk1 will correct.

I posted on the other thread but I spec’d a facelift 4S ST to my current GTS ST spec and it was £140k… madness. How even the craziest of man maths make this work I don’t know? Even with a 10% discount this would be £40k more than my 350mile, 3month GTS…

Again, as I’ve said before… we all know depreciation is volatile so:

-Lease it - hand it back
-PCP it - hand it back

That way depreciation really does not matter… You literally have cost certainty when you buy the bloody thing!

 

[Redhot2474]

Gen 2’s will take a beating just like the Gen 1’s , the Gen 1’s depreciation will slow down a bit as it opens Porsche cars up to a larger audience, not to mention it’s looks more attractive , just my 2 cents …

 

[Boss Hogg]

Interesting thread.

I would add that when Gen1 was released there was little/no competition so it attracted many buyers -I came from an Audi RS6, another large depreciation car. Conflate this with the microchip and supply chain issues restricting supply there was a short period of demand hysteria and minimal depreciation that all ended abruptly with Porsche catching up with (and exceeding) demand so the market is now correcting. There are also now more alternatives to Taycan reducing demand for Gen 1 and Gen2, and assuming Porsche learn and don’t oversupply (again!), I agree the Gen2 depreciation will be less than vs Gen1.

I expect big depreciation, this is a mainstream luxury car, the Porsche badge does not make it immune.

 

[achaudh]

We all can only speculate so I will add mine as well. I do not see MY25 depreciating any less or the existing used inventory depreciating any less either. MY25 will go farther on a charge and will charge faster but its more expensive as well. EV's in general still have fewer buyers and the higher in price you go, its rarified air with far fewer buyers. Add Taycan's well-publicized issues, maintenance/repair costs, Macan EV arrival, far less history to compare and understand against its ICE siblings Panamera et al on longevity and you have a perfect case for a very apprehensive buyer. Also, I would not compare Taycan with its siblings like 911 or Panamera as ICE and EV's are completely different cars that appeal to different buyers for different reasons.

Unless, Porsche reduces Taycan production volume constraining supplies, depreciation will not alleviate but I doubt Porsche will do that as Taycan has been a good lab test for them as they look to electrify existing lineup.

 

[Singularity]

I appreciate OP wants to think changing to a face lift version is a good idea. It won’t be. As many have said, who’s going to buy a new facelift when they could pick up a nearly new (or new) mk1 for literally £50k less. The slight range upgrade and slightly faster charging is not enough - let’s face it - it’s 99% the same car. This is not Taycan 2.

Just to clarify a few points; I don't think any luxury cars are a good investment nor am I claiming that the new Taycan won't depreciate a lot. It certainly will depreciate but not necessarily as much. But this is all speculation anyway, there are so many factors that go into this and we will see in the future what happens.

As for the new version, I definitely think it's much more than a "facelift". I wouldn't say 35% more range is "slight" or that the cold weather charging speed being up 100%, is irrelevant. There is a thread about my decision to upgrade here.

For me the depreciation isn't a major factor in decision making, as I can afford a Taycan regardless of how much it depreciates. The decision mainly comes to whether I like the car or not and I've greatly enjoyed my 2020 Taycan and I am quite impressed by the upgraded version.

I do btw fully agree that for many leasing could be a better option. I'm simply used to always buying my cars, have never leased.

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

Just to clarify a few points; [...] But this is all speculation anyway

Correct; once this thread reaches a conclusion, we can start one on the depreciation of MY27 Taycans.

As for the new version, I definitely think it's much more than a "facelift". I wouldn't say 35% more range is "slight" or that the cold weather charging speed being up 100%, is irrelevant.

Also correct; whether those numbers will withstand contact with reality, though, remains to be seen. And even if they hold true, their value/importance to you is likely to differ from anyone else's.


IMHO, Porsche used the Taycan.1 to test the market, develop, learn - and do so while not losing money (evidence: stinginess of equipment, quality of trims). Now that it's proven, Taycan.2 is pushed up-market (in price, quality, and, I expect, much lower sales numbers), with the Macan EV taking its place as the mass-market EV. (Incidentally, this pulled the Macan line up-market, too.)

tl;dr: Difficult to see, the future is - but it's probably safe to say the MY25 Taycan won't depreciate quite as much. I'll be shocked if they make more than 20k/year (so half the rate of the first one).

 

[Longy_UK]

As for the new version, I definitely think it's much more than a "facelift". I wouldn't say 35% more range is "slight" or that the cold weather charging speed being up 100%, is irrelevant.

I do btw fully agree that for many leasing could be a better option. I'm simply used to always buying my cars, have never leased.

Yes, for some this upgrade may be worth the extra cash but a 30% range nudge won’t interest many; myself included. Same with cold weather charging speed…

For me you’d be nuts to ‘buy’ a Taycan cash. Especially a turbo! You should be protecting that money, investing it elsewhere and returning decent interest. This would offset much if not all of the interest of the finance / lease. That way you’d have a guaranteed final value after your term and threads like this would be irrelevant.

Appreciate I’m sounding argumentative, I’m not. Your new car will be superb and I can’t wait to see the pictures!

 

[Singularity]

For me you’d be nuts to ‘buy’ a Taycan cash. Especially a turbo! You should be protecting that money, investing it elsewhere and returning decent interest. This would offset much if not all of the interest of the finance / lease.

I fully agree. With buying I didn't mean buying with cash. I've always used financing in my car purchases. Usually I pay around 30% cash and have 70% financed.

 

[whitex]

I want to share my thoughts regarding depreciation of the updated Taycan. As I decided to swap my 2020 Taycan to the updated version, I've been thinking about this a bit.

First of all, there are obviously a multitude of reasons why the Taycan has depreciated significantly but to me there are a couple of key reasons that are not talked about enough:

1. It is a car model that was launched during the largest money printing episode in modern history. There was a lot of money in circulation and a lot of people could afford to buy a Taycan, or at least thought they could afford one.

2. Taycan is a mainstream luxury car. The amounts sold are massive. Someone countered my argument in Facebook saying "why doesn't the 911 depreciate like this?", well, the most important rule in economics is supply and demand. I looked at the amount of 2020+ Taycan's in sale in Finland and the amount of year model 2020+ 911s on sale in Finland and the current amounts are: Taycans on sale: 173, 911s on sale: 18. People bought a huge amount of Taycan's during the zero interest rate period but not a lot of 911s.

3. Now we live in a new economic reality. Every single mainstream luxury car is depreciating a lot because so many are selling them, and fewer are buying them. Model to model there are of course differences, but broadly speaking the same economic reality affects everything. Note that it is important to differentiate between mainstream luxury cars and niche luxury cars. Niche luxury cars are not necessarily hit in the same way, as they might not have experienced such a boom during the zero interest rate period.

Now with that being said, let's discuss the reality of the 2025 Taycan. It is more expensive, fairly competitive in its specs to rivals and it has been launched during a new tighter economic reality. Also there are other contributing factors such as some people being worried about Taycans reliability.

What all of this means is that the order amounts of the new Taycan will likely be significantly smaller than with the old Taycan and therefore I do not expect us to see boatloads of them on sale in a year or two. The used car market of the new Taycan will have a far smaller supply than what we currently see with the old Taycan. Also the specs of the new Taycan will probably hold up well to rivals in the next few years at least, which is a less of a factor but a factor nonetheless.

So to finalize my point, I believe the 2025 Taycan will depreciate a bit slower than the old Taycan, as it is launched during a tighter economic reality and the used car market for that car will have a significantly smaller supply than we are now seeing with the old one. I look forward to seeing stats of how many of these Porsche are selling, as I strongly believe the sales will be smaller than the Taycan sales in the past.

It sounds a little like a rationalization of why taking a loss on a current Taycan and buying a new one is worth it to you. One thing you forgot to include in your analysis (possibly because it would not support your argument) is the fact that Taycans were incredibly supply constrained during the pandemic. I remember trying to buy mine, took me 20 months and was on many waiting lists at dealers across the nation. When the APB2 recall came out, which covered all 2023 Turbo CT (the model I bought, even though I originally signed up for a 2022) it became apparent to me how constrained the supply was - Porsche only produced 128 units 2023 Turbo CT's for the entire US market.

A few probably sunk on the transport boat that went to the bottom of the Atlantic. Do you think this means those have not depreciated as much because there was less than 3 made per state (on average) for the entire model year? The answer is no, they depreciated as much as other luxury sedans in that price range.

One could also make an argument that the Gen 2 Taycan depreciation will be higher than Gen 1 since there was no Gen 0 which would compete with it on a used car market, but there will be used Gen 1's competing against used Gen 2's. Gen 1's were priced lower in the first place, and there were subsidies for some too. As much as Gen 2 has some advantages, most used car buyers are unlikely to pay a whole lot more for a 2025 vs 2024. The differential will shrink over time too.

Personally I think it's hard to predict depreciation as it depends on many things. All cars have depreciated since the pandemic, yes, even 911's. Interest is high, supply is no longer limited, etc. There may be less 911's available, but try to sell one. I remember when I was trying to sell my 2001 911 C4 two years later in 2003, got about 50% of the price I paid for it (which was under MSRP). There wasn't many around for sale, but there also wasn't many buyers. Such is life of a car, most of them are depreciating assets. General rule of thumb, 4 years you're looking at ~50% of trim's base price MSRP for a trade-in value (all options have depreciated almost to zero by then). Economic hard times affect more expensive cars more. More expensive trims also depreciate slightly more (%) than lower trims. Lowest depreciation is for a base trim, no options car.

This is not meant to burst your bubble or discourage you from buying a 2025 Taycan. If you want it and can afford it, go for it. YOLO! But don't assume it's going to be an investment, or cheap transportation.

Sponsored