Depreciation

TheSnape

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Anyone know of used car prices for the Taycan?

I was wondering if I could simply wait a few years then pick up a Turbo S for a cheap price, the same way you would a petrol car. But I've been hearing mixed stories about depreciation - can anyone shed any light on this?
 

charliemathilde

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Anyone know of used car prices for the Taycan?

I was wondering if I could simply wait a few years then pick up a Turbo S for a cheap price, the same way you would a petrol car. But I've been hearing mixed stories about depreciation - can anyone shed any light on this?
nobody knows. The technology is changing quickly, so newer models are likely to be significantly better in 2-4 years. But it’s a Porsche, and some 911s hold their value pretty well after the first few years of depreciation. That seems likely to depend on how the market views them in a few years.

my guess would be Model S like depreciation. You can compare those over the last 7 years so there’s good data. And if the Taycan happens to do better, that’s just a nice surprise.
 

beaudawg

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>$100k four door cars have nearly universal high rates of depreciation. If battery technology advances, that is another possible hit to resale. Model S is a possible barometer.
 

felixtb

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>$100k four door cars have nearly universal high rates of depreciation. If battery technology advances, that is another possible hit to resale. Model S is a possible barometer.
interestingly the Model S has always had a very good resale value due to very little maintenance and of course scarcity in the market, so hopefully it could be a barometer.
 
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TheSnape

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But it would still depreciate over time right?

I'm wondering how low prices could go, especially as this is guaranteed to become a future classic in 20 -30 years or so, and prices shoot back up
 

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Anyone know of used car prices for the Taycan?

I was wondering if I could simply wait a few years then pick up a Turbo S for a cheap price, the same way you would a petrol car. But I've been hearing mixed stories about depreciation - can anyone shed any light on this?
Here is an article on Porsche depreciation. I would expect the depreciation to be similar to the 911.
But on the one hand, its the first electric Porsche, so it might collapse. first models of the Nissan Leaf lost 75% of value after 3 years....But on the otherhand, the demand for used "cheaper" turbos and turbo S may keep the price higher, as there may be LOTS of people like you wanting the best Taycan, but dont want to pay $170 to $200k
https://usedfirst.com/cars/porsche/
 
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TheSnape

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Here is an article on Porsche depreciation. I would expect the depreciation to be similar to the 911.
But on the one hand, its the first electric Porsche, so it might collapse. first models of the Nissan Leaf lost 75% of value after 3 years....But on the otherhand, the demand for used "cheaper" turbos and turbo S may keep the price higher, as there may be LOTS of people like you wanting the best Taycan, but dont want to pay $170 to $200k
https://usedfirst.com/cars/porsche/
True. But it's also the first 5-series sized sedan which looks like a supercar which pretty much guarantees it as a future classic, so the trick will be to find just the right moment to buy, when it's old but hopefully just before prices rise again as it becomes a classic
 

thorfun

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Or just not worry about depreciation and buy now and enjoy life while you can.

I regard depreciation as simply the cost of motoring in a beautiful car. And if that’s £20,000 per year then so be it!

just my opinion of course and everyone has to live their life their own way. :like:
 

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True. But it's also the first 5-series sized sedan which looks like a supercar which pretty much guarantees it as a future classic, so the trick will be to find just the right moment to buy, when it's old but hopefully just before prices rise again as it becomes a classic
Yes....but I am here to enjoy life.....I invest in commercial real estate to make money so I can enjoy traveling the world and occasionally on cars....I enjoy cars not collect cars, and really just the electric cars caught my attention.

I bought a 1966 Beetle in 1983 for $900 and sold it for $1200 in 1987.....today its would be worth $26,000

I bought in 1992 an Acura NSX, $86000 and sold it 1998 for $28,000....today they go for $90,000 (slower than a 1998 Porsche Carrera, but the NSX handled MUCH better on super curvy mountain roads, fear was its only limitation)

I bought a 2002 Porsche Carrera Cabriolet for $72,000 in 2003 as a wedding gift to wife.....sold it for $35,000 in 2013 when I downgraded her to Boxster S, as an anniversary gift guess 10 years of marriage...lol...now worth $15,000 to $19,000....but wish I never sold it because it was a wedding gift....LOL...time to make up with a Taycan 4S!!

Make money off something else, enjoy your car and your life while you can as ThorFun said!
 

OHWHATDA

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One thing to consider is that for the US the $7,500 federal tax incentive should be built into any used car prices along with state tax incentives. Because who wants to buy a year old model and lose out on up to $10K in tax incentives, you'd get no buyers I think that's shown by this graph, where depreciation for one year old model Tesla's is actually worse than Industry Average. But Porsche and Tesla both seem to beat the Industry average, but I'm guessing it's highly dependent on the model for the Porsche. I'm betting there's no upward curve for the Panamera and Cayenne, while a 911 will curve upward as it becomes a classic and maintain 30-40% of it's value for awhile.

So for the Taycan I'd guess you'd get a huge deprecation hit in the first hit due to the lost of tax incentives (normal deprecation + up to $10k added depreciation), and then if you're really lucky you'll get a 911 depreciation curve after that but I'm betting it's going to be unlikely due to one major problem: batteries. Batteries have an expected lifespan, and if they start to go out after 10 years no one wants to be left holding the bag on a $50K replacement There's no such timer on a 911, so it's going to be difficult to end up with "classic" Taycans if all their batteries have failed after 15-20 years and no one wants to pay for the replacement.

upload_2019-10-7_11-8-33.png
 

BayAreaKen

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If you're buying the car to own a "classic" in 20-30+ years, then admit that's what it's for. Buy it and store it for the next couple decades.

Personally, I'm looking forward to leasing it for 3 years and then getting the next Taycan. Hopefully it will be available with a ragtop by then!
 

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I suspect depreciation will be very sharp with the first year production for more than the luxury car >100k price issue. Here are probable changes that will bring your car value down (much like they did with my previous 3 Tesla's):

1. Next year models will have improved battery in term of charging (350kW will eventually be possible).
2. Most likely improved efficiencies will increase range. This may not be applicable to existing hardware (just like Raven Tesla is more efficient that P100D due to better motor).
3. Porsche will reduce the price in time (everyone has seen the table with the MSRP at USA launch being larger than the subsequent MSRP)

Because of these issues I plan to lease.
 
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TheSnape

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Hmm..fair.

And my idea more is not so much to worry about the value, but just buy it when it's at its cheapest, take advantage of depreciation to get a top of the line Turbo S very cheap
 

Singularity

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I'm leaning to believe that the depreciation will not be anything unusual for the first 3 years at least. One key issue that is not talked about enough is that with the amount of electric cars coming out from basically all manufacturers in 2020-2021 it is quite likely that the battery manufacturers simply can't keep up with the demand. I don't see battery prices going down for the next 3 years. In fact some car models might have significant delays due to battery supply issues. There is a huge ramp up in the battery industry ongoing, but it takes time. The increasing demand for the next 3 years will be absolutely massive, and the industry will likely properly catch up only in 2025 or so.

As for the Taycan spesifically, it has its own production limits and after the car gets in the hands of early buyers and celebrities, and to dealers & showrooms, and if the rave reviews continue, it is quite possible the car will have a long waiting time for anyone that is ordering it in 2020. That means that any used Taycan sold in the aftermarket will be devoured, meaning there is very little depreciation in the first couple of years.

Then about the EV tech generally, it is unlikely to change as fast as some think. For example, having reliable solid state batteries that can be mass produced cheaply enough, is not likely to happen in the next couple of years. And without major technological breakthroughs becoming commercially viable such as solid state batteries, the improvements in EVs are going to be incremental and moderate, not mindblowing.

So to summarize, I think that after approximately year 2025 the Taycan might quickly depreciate due to all of these factors changing in favor of faster depreciation, but before that, I expect the value to hold up pretty well.
 

charliemathilde

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I'm leaning to believe that the depreciation will not be anything unusual for the first 3 years at least. One key issue that is not talked about enough is that with the amount of electric cars coming out from basically all manufacturers in 2020-2021 it is quite likely that the battery manufacturers simply can't keep up with the demand. I don't see battery prices going down for the next 3 years. In fact some car models might have significant delays due to battery supply issues. There is a huge ramp up in the battery industry ongoing, but it takes time. The increasing demand for the next 3 years will be absolutely massive, and the industry will likely properly catch up only in 2025 or so.

As for the Taycan spesifically, it has its own production limits and after the car gets in the hands of early buyers and celebrities, and to dealers & showrooms, and if the rave reviews continue, it is quite possible the car will have a long waiting time for anyone that is ordering it in 2020. That means that any used Taycan sold in the aftermarket will be devoured, meaning there is very little depreciation in the first couple of years.

Then about the EV tech generally, it is unlikely to change as fast as some think. For example, having reliable solid state batteries that can be mass produced cheaply enough, is not likely to happen in the next couple of years. And without major technological breakthroughs becoming commercially viable such as solid state batteries, the improvements in EVs are going to be incremental and moderate, not mindblowing.

So to summarize, I think that after approximately year 2025 the Taycan might quickly depreciate due to all of these factors changing in favor of faster depreciation, but before that, I expect the value to hold up pretty well.
battery prices are predicted to decrease another 30% or so over the next 3 years. Existing tech, just refined, as well as manufacturing economies of scale. I think you underestimate the cumulative effect of a several % every year. EV tech is moving fast, and big boy money as opposed to the chump change for compliance vehicles is slowly starting. Porsche had only planned to invest $3B into EV as of 2018. They double that for Dieselgate. That’s, sorry guys but by Fortune 500 standards, that’s not a lot of money for capital investment . Tesla has invested over $10B and they’re a lot smaller. Or were. Lol. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126308_electric-car-battery-prices-dropped-13-in-2019-will-reach-100-kwh-in-2023
 



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