OMG Elon really does lie

[Perry]

Tesla will have to take a very difficult decision in 2022/2023 to either radically disapoint the customers with significantly lowered performance data and produce the roadster on 4680 cells in 2023, og postpone again. A roadster in 2023 will probably have a 100kw battery or so, but of course easily 1200hp.

Don’t forget though that Tesla and their fans only really care about the 0-60mph numbers. Any type of “soft” values like driving characteristics are all but irrelevant because it’s not something that can be easily embraced by tech bloggers.

Like all Teslas, the roadster is probably going to turn out to be an excellent and cost efficient one-off drag racer and that’s what bloggers, youtubers, fans and stakeholders are going to focus on.

Assuming that, I’m pretty certain that they will manage to build their “roadster” seeing how literally the only metric they have to solve is really the 0-60 number on a drag strip. If that means building a multi-ton monster with half a steering wheel and a touch screen, then so be it.

Sponsored

 

[Swissbob]

He may have a loose grip on timelines but Elon Musk’s ability to deliver on his vision is pretty spectacular. N’est-ce pas?

 

[charliemathilde]

I’ll go you one further - he will NEVER ship any roadsters - or _IF_ he does ship any it will be 75 units or less - i.e. very very very low volume just to not be a “total” liar - but it will be limited production to friends and family and these will be northing more than some hand built glorified prototypes.

he produce just enough to avoid lawsuites for early deposit holders

but time will tell - but that’s my official prediction.

that would be a wild turn of events. I’m not sure what would induce it though.

The power train tech already exists. The new model S plaid gets almost the target performance. Shed a little weight and put on better tires and use 4680 batteries and you’re done.

I don’t follow why folks are quite this level of pessimistic. Rimac and the Model S Plaid and Drakko are just the beginning. We know most of this can be done because it is being done. Tesla’s biggest problem is that it takes them so long to get the roadster done it’s no longer particularly interesting.

I suspect Elon raises the price and flubs on the range promises. Exactly like he did for the 2008 roadster launch. That was a clusterf—k. When that looks like it’ll be all it takes to make this product once the 4680 production yields peak, I’m not sure why he’d drop it entirely

 

[jvincent]

He may have a loose grip on timelines but Elon Musk’s ability to deliver on his vision is pretty spectacular. N’est-ce pas?

Absolutely. Underestimate him at your peril. I dislike the man, but respect his genius.

 

[Swissbob]

Absolutely. Underestimate him at your peril. I dislike the man, but respect his genius.

Not sure genius was ever very likeable. But he’s taken huge risks, totally invested himself and delivered spectacular results. Noone else has got close to disrupting the car industry in decades and he’s turned it on its head. About the same time VW were lying about Diesel emissions…

 

[manitou202]

I wonder what will happen to all of the people who are supposed to get a roadster from their referrals?

My guess is they deliver a roadster with 350-400 miles of range and Plaid like acceleration. No Space X booster or funny stuff.

Not sure if they will deliver the 4680 batteries, but if they do there will be competitors with batteries of similar density and cost. Batteries will eventually become a commodity with minor differences between suppliers/automakers.

 

[feye]

Given the amount of investigations against Tesla Autopilot crashes, I’m skeptical that regulators will be allowing such a car without a steering wheel solely relying on a vision-based system to hit the roads in 2023.

That's for sure another pipe dream:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/elon-musk-says-tesla-fsd-beta-9point2-software-is-not-great.html

Meanwhile at the NTSB: "The nation’s new chief accident investigator wants to send a message: Growing public confusion over automated driving systems in the U.S. is threatening to undermine the potential safety benefits of the technology."

 

[feye]

Not sure genius was ever very likeable. But he’s taken huge risks, totally invested himself and delivered spectacular results. Noone else has got close to disrupting the car industry in decades and he’s turned it on its head. About the same time VW were lying about Diesel emissions…

That's a fanboy lie, the disruption came from somewhere else!

 

[Swissbob]

I don’t know much about the Chinese situation but I bought a Tesla in 2016 and would never have previously dreamed of spending so much money on a car. They are everywhere in Switzerland. No other new car manufacturer has had nearly such an impact. There would be no Taycan without Tesla. If that’s not disruption I don’t know what is

 

[ElectricSoul]

Let's not conflate Tesla engineering with Elon. Elon didn't found Tesla. He got in as an investor and creeped in as CEO, but he wasn't and will never be a Tesla founder.

Props to Tesla for making EVs cool, and causing the industry to react to it. When I hear leaks or testimonies of people who work at Tesla, Elon's ideas are very gimmicky. I find a lot of the cult around Elon cringey, and with all he's promising and his failure to deliver on the overwhelming majority, I wonder how sustainable that doge-ma is.

I'm very bullish on Lucid, which was actually founded by a car engineer, Peter Rawlinson, who headed up Model S engineering at Tesla and seems more focused on building a great product than elaborating a cult. And is successfully able to hire talent at Tesla who can't deal with Elon's BS.

 

[DrT]

I wonder what will happen to all of the people who are supposed to get a roadster from their referrals?

My guess is they deliver a roadster with 350-400 miles of range and Plaid like acceleration. No Space X booster or funny stuff.

Not sure if they will deliver the 4680 batteries, but if they do there will be competitors with batteries of similar density and cost. Batteries will eventually become a commodity with minor differences between suppliers/automakers.

I suspect the same, as we already saw with the Plaid that was downgraded from 800km+ to 637km in range, so we probably won’t see a Roadster with 1000km range.

 

[feye]

I don’t know much about the Chinese situation but I bought a Tesla in 2016 and would never have previously dreamed of spending so much money on a car. They are everywhere in Switzerland. No other new car manufacturer has had nearly such an impact. There would be no Taycan without Tesla. If that’s not disruption I don’t know what is

Well, repeating it more often does not make it true! Porsche came out first with the Taycan because Porsche has no production (no joint venture partner) in China. China is by far their most profitable market. I spent 1.4m RMB for a regular optioned 4S+ which is about 220k USD. The Chinese market is their money printing press.

When the Chinese gov announced EV sales quotas the alarm bells went off! I was on the phone with Audi service some time before. At the end I asked, what about an EV? He said, I should look out for the upcoming Q6. The name e-tron was not even used for it. While Audi (has manufacturing in China) was daddling, Porsche announced the Taycan on a whole new platform. They suddenly looked like they are super serious and went all in! Why? Chinese government quotas. Shortly after, the EU followed with emission levels. Again, why did Porsche offer the base Taycan in China in 2020 before anywhere else? Chinese government quotas. Result:

• China: Over 2 million charging piles and almost 200 full EV models on the road from almost any (foreign and domestic) brand.
• EU: Multiple large public charging operators and (~60 EV?) models on the road
• USA: Well, ...

So whatever you say, if you look at the EV landscape as a whole, it is entirely driven by regulators, not by T. This is also true if you zoom in into special small markets (Norway) or mid sized markets (California).

T neither disrupts this industry nor does it drive this transition - this is a fanboy fantasy. In fact, the absolute only reason, T is still alive today, is because of regulatory pressure, which allowed their Shanghai factory to thrive. Even the EU helped T by allowing transfer payments for missed emission targets.

 

[Swissbob]

Well, repeating it more often does not make it true! Porsche came out first with the Taycan because Porsche has no production (no joint venture partner) in China. China is by far their most profitable market. I spent 1.4m RMB for a regular optioned 4S+ which is about 220k USD. The Chinese market is their money printing press.

When the Chinese gov announced EV sales quotas the alarm bells went off! I was on the phone with Audi service some time before. At the end I asked, what about an EV? He said, I should look out for the upcoming Q6. The name e-tron was not even used for it. While Audi (has manufacturing in China) was daddling, Porsche announced the Taycan on a whole new platform. They suddenly looked like they are super serious and went all in! Why? Chinese government quotas. Shortly after, the EU followed with emission levels. Again, why did Porsche offer the base Taycan in China in 2020 before anywhere else? Chinese government quotas. Result:

• China: Over 2 million charging piles and almost 200 full EV models on the road from almost any (foreign and domestic) brand.
• EU: Multiple large public charging operators and (~60 EV?) models on the road
• USA: Well, ...

So whatever you say, if you look at the EV landscape as a whole, it is entirely driven by regulators, not by T. This is also true if you zoom in into special small markets (Norway) or mid sized markets (California).

T neither disrupts this industry nor does it drive this transition - this is a fanboy fantasy. In fact, the absolute only reason, T is still alive today, is because of regulatory pressure, which allowed their Shanghai factory to thrive. Even the EU helped T by allowing transfer payments for missed emission targets.

Thanks for sharing. Wasn’t aware of that!

 

[rx7arai]

At this rate, I think we might see the Apple Car before the Tesla Roadster.

 

[rx7arai]

Not sure genius was ever very likeable. But he’s taken huge risks, totally invested himself and delivered spectacular results. Noone else has got close to disrupting the car industry in decades and he’s turned it on its head. About the same time VW were lying about Diesel emissions…

No one? I believe you forgot this thing called EV1 by GM.

Sponsored