OMG Elon really does lie

[ron_b]

Well related to Tesla lies with a Porsche Taycan connection.

Tesla fan David Crosby says he’s been lied to four times about EV delivery
TESLARATI
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fan-david-crosby-says-hes-been-lied-to-four-times-about-ev-delivery/

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[XLR82XS]

Elon is being Elon. Whatever. I’m not sure I want a roadster anymore, given the competition at that price point or slightly higher by 2024. Some pretty awesome still on the horizon. But I still think a “baby Rimac” would be a pretty cool product.

With the Bugatti/Porsche/Rimac venture a baby Rimac sports car could be awesome and feasible. In typical German fashion I would think a product like that could hit the market before Tesla Roadster 2.0.

 

[riburn3]

Well, repeating it more often does not make it true! Porsche came out first with the Taycan because Porsche has no production (no joint venture partner) in China. China is by far their most profitable market. I spent 1.4m RMB for a regular optioned 4S+ which is about 220k USD. The Chinese market is their money printing press.

When the Chinese gov announced EV sales quotas the alarm bells went off! I was on the phone with Audi service some time before. At the end I asked, what about an EV? He said, I should look out for the upcoming Q6. The name e-tron was not even used for it. While Audi (has manufacturing in China) was daddling, Porsche announced the Taycan on a whole new platform. They suddenly looked like they are super serious and went all in! Why? Chinese government quotas. Shortly after, the EU followed with emission levels. Again, why did Porsche offer the base Taycan in China in 2020 before anywhere else? Chinese government quotas. Result:

• China: Over 2 million charging piles and almost 200 full EV models on the road from almost any (foreign and domestic) brand.
• EU: Multiple large public charging operators and (~60 EV?) models on the road
• USA: Well, ...

So whatever you say, if you look at the EV landscape as a whole, it is entirely driven by regulators, not by T. This is also true if you zoom in into special small markets (Norway) or mid sized markets (California).

T neither disrupts this industry nor does it drive this transition - this is a fanboy fantasy. In fact, the absolute only reason, T is still alive today, is because of regulatory pressure, which allowed their Shanghai factory to thrive. Even the EU helped T by allowing transfer payments for missed emission targets.

I'm sorry but to deny Tesla's impact on the automotive industry is just sticking your head in the sand.

Without Tesla showing that EV's were feasible on a large scale to the mass market, the trickle down of governments mandating EV sales and emissions standards (which Diesel Gate assisted with), would likely not have happened, or not at least at the pace the last decade has gone, or how this decade is going to go. You're right that China is a huge determining factor in the way business is conducted around the world, but to assert that it is the only factor in the automotive industries transition to EV's and act like it would have happened in a world without Telsa makes no sense. It might have, but decades later.

Tesla is an absolute disrupter. Even things like the growing number of vehicles that can be updated while sitting in your garage are a result of Tesla making this an expected feature on higher end vehicles. I fairly recently got a survey from the Porsche Driver's Council, where the whole thing was about over the air updates, and specifically referenced Tesla multiples times in regard to their implementation and ease of use.

Even vehicle design and technology implementation has been impacted by Tesla. Every year car screens get bigger with more controls added to the infotainment screen, and physical buttons decline. There's a reason why all the new Mercedes, Porsche, Audi, etc get immediately compared to Tesla from a tech standpoint in any automotive journal or blog.

I'll also add that even their sales model has been a huge disrupter. Direct sales have resulted in legislation in multiple states and nations to either limit or facilitate this method. Huge lobbies in the car industry exist to prevent direct to consumer sales because it completely disrupts the traditional dealer method, and has the potential to turn the industry on its head.

 

[Mr.Smith]

I'm sorry but to deny Tesla's impact on the automotive industry is just sticking your head in the sand.

Without Tesla showing that EV's were feasible on a large scale to the mass market, the trickle down of governments mandating EV sales and emissions standards (which Diesel Gate assisted with), would likely not have happened, or not at least at the pace the last decade has gone, or how this decade is going to go. You're right that China is a huge determining factor in the way business is conducted around the world, but to assert that it is the only factor in the automotive industries transition to EV's and act like it would have happened in a world without Telsa makes no sense. It might have, but decades later.

Tesla is an absolute disrupter. Even things like the growing number of vehicles that can be updated while sitting in your garage are a result of Tesla making this an expected feature on higher end vehicles. I fairly recently got a survey from the Porsche Driver's Council, where the whole thing was about over the air updates, and specifically referenced Tesla multiples times in regard to their implementation and ease of use.

Even vehicle design and technology implementation has been impacted by Tesla. Every year car screens get bigger with more controls added to the infotainment screen, and physical buttons decline. There's a reason why all the new Mercedes, Porsche, Audi, etc get immediately compared to Tesla from a tech standpoint in any automotive journal or blog.

I'll also add that even their sales model has been a huge disrupter. Direct sales have resulted in legislation in multiple states and nations to either limit or facilitate this method. Huge lobbies in the car industry exist to prevent direct to consumer sales because it completely disrupts the traditional dealer method, and has the potential to turn the industry on its head.

There needs to be a little more education on EVs, the green agenda, subsidies, direct to consumer sales model .
None of these have anything to do with Tesla.

Teslas stock price made it easier for every OEM to get Wallstreet financing for an EV strategy. Thats their benefit to the marketplace

OEMs waited as long as possible to sell money losing EVs until regulations required them too.
Tesla was 10 years ahead because they started earlier to lose money and to milk every subsidy possible.
OEMs have 50-100 year business plans so they know all of this.

 

[riburn3]

There needs to be a little more education on EVs, the green agenda, subsidies, direct to consumer sales model .
None of these have anything to do with Tesla.

Teslas stock price made it easier for every OEM to get Wallstreet financing for an EV strategy. Thats their benefit to the marketplace

OEMs waited as long as possible to sell money losing EVs until regulations required them too.
Tesla was 10 years ahead because they started earlier to lose money and to milk every subsidy possible.
OEMs have 50-100 year business plans so they know all of this.

Initially an EV is money losing, but Tesla makes about a 21% gross on their vehicles, one of the highest in the industry. Porsche already stated this year the Taycan is profitable after just a couple sales years.

The real hurt comes to the dealers when they don't have cars rolling in annually for oil changes or other costly repairs, when EV's overall have fewer mechanical issues, and the dealers make their nut on their service center.

 

[XLR82XS]

Initially an EV is money losing, but Tesla makes about a 21% gross on their vehicles, one of the highest in the industry. Porsche already stated this year the Taycan is profitable after just a couple sales years.

The real hurt comes to the dealers when they don't have cars rolling in annually for oil changes or other costly repairs, when EV's overall have fewer mechanical issues, and the dealers make their nut on their service center.

They haven't been on sale to the public for 2 years - yet. I don't see dealers hurting too bad on EV the service side, at least at my dealer. Non-warranty light/interior repairs, brake jobs, wheel replacements, brake fluid flushes, etc. There will also be additional post-warranty mechanical service in the future.

 

[riburn3]

They haven't been on sale to the public for 2 years - yet. I don't see dealers hurting too bad on EV the service side, at least at my dealer. Non-warranty light/interior repairs, brake jobs, wheel replacements, brake fluid flushes, etc. There will also be additional post-warranty mechanical service in the future.

Yeah, I meant model years. We are knocking on 2 actual years of retail sales and about to be in our 3rd model year.

There are definitely going to be repairs but it likely won't come close. I seem to recall a Taycan specialist on here from a dealer in Texas mentioning Porsche specifically is going to start increased training on legacy models and repairs due to the loss of service revenue as the vehicles go more and more electric.

Just think about a basic 10k mile Porsche Oil change or honestly any of the services they perform at their intervals. They charge an arm and a leg for them, and many of them aren't necessary for EV's. My Taycan has been several times cheaper to run than my Boxster before it, even without factoring gas. Really just tire rotations. I also had to replace an air filter and some wiper blades recentl, all for less than 100 bucks. Just a Porsche oil change is a few hundred dollars depending on the dealer and model.

 

[Mr.Smith]

Initially an EV is money losing, but Tesla makes about a 21% gross on their vehicles, one of the highest in the industry. Porsche already stated this year the Taycan is profitable after just a couple sales years.

The real hurt comes to the dealers when they don't have cars rolling in annually for oil changes or other costly repairs, when EV's overall have fewer mechanical issues, and the dealers make their nut on their service center.

We can get deep into the accounting if you DM me, but I can assure you these numbers are not accurate. All you need to do is look at much much money Tesla keeps raising and by what method.
We can get into how cars are manufactured, efficiencies, after sales services and why Tesla is one of the worst in the industry, which drastically reduces GM.

Look at the delta in price between a Tesla and Taycan, its a low volume, very high priced luxury car, part of the VW Group that can spread their R&D across millions of units.
As incentives and regulations force OEMs, they will switch to EVs and will eventually make money, due to massive scale. EVs are a few % of the global market sales for now.

The biggest cost for an EV is the battery pack and the limiting factor. As the cost drops, it will be possible to make $.... at scale


I agree on the dealers, service, repairs. Dealers are different than the OEMs though. Dealers will eventually become franchised service centers for the OEM and less of a point of sale solution

 

[svp6]

Agree with a lot that has been said here - both pro and against Tesla. And of course part of the market shift towards EVs comes from regulators. However, to deny drastic changes brought by Tesla seems a little extreme. They must be doing something right since they are now selling >200,000 / quarter. Just $0.02 worth.

 

[pcp1701]

The delay has nothing to do with current supply chain problems, i.e. chip and batteries. The fact is that the performance data on the readster simply can not be reached with the current battery tech unless you utterly destroy the car with a double layer of 2170 cells. Try fitting 170-200kw of batteries into the roadster. If you take the taycan for instance, there is only room for about 95kw, and that is a much longer wheelbase. You need a truck to even be able to get fit more than 100kw into a car with the current tech.

The readster needs, as a minimum 4680 cells, or probably a new tech like solid state with much higher density which is years into the future.

Tesla will have to take a very difficult decision in 2022/2023 to either radically disapoint the customers with significantly lowered performance data and produce the roadster on 4680 cells in 2023, og postpone again. A roadster in 2023 will probably have a 100kw battery or so, but of course easily 1200hp.

I dont see the roadster until the end of this decade, when the battery tech is available.

Only one flaw in your logic. Tesla fan folks will not be disappointed. Either the product won’t arrive, or a stripped down version will arrive. Either way it will somehow be evidence to them of Musk’s brilliance. $35K Model 3 anyone?

 

[feye]

I'm sorry but to deny Tesla's impact on the automotive industry is just sticking your head in the sand.

Without Tesla showing that EV's were feasible on a large scale to the mass market, the trickle down of governments mandating EV sales and emissions standards (which Diesel Gate assisted with), would likely not have happened, or not at least at the pace the last decade has gone, or how this decade is going to go. You're right that China is a huge determining factor in the way business is conducted around the world, but to assert that it is the only factor in the automotive industries transition to EV's and act like it would have happened in a world without Telsa makes no sense. It might have, but decades later.

After I send my post, I realized, that I missed to tell the full story, so somebody not living in China for the past 20 years may not be able to connect the dots.

About 12 years ago, I flew in from Paris into Shanghai. Had to change airport for connecting flights. As soon as the airport door opened the dirty air hit us. Shocking and it is disgusting that you have to breath that.

A friend lived in Beijing for years, he said, most of the days, you would NOT open the window, the air pollution was just too bad. When the rain came, the thick black dirt liquefied and was running down the windows, inside and outside. My wife went on business to Beijing. The taxi driver from the airport: Your boss must really hate you to send you to Beijing today. She told me, you cannot breath it. After 10 min you start to feel the pain in your throat.

We lived in an apartment in Shenzhen on the 10 top floor with a roof terrace. Next to the building, we had a busy bus stop. The diesel buses polluted the air so much, that after only 2 years we bought it, the painted white walls turned gray. When you touched it, the fingers where sticky.

There was a lot of talk in the gov from early 2000 onward on how to fix this. It became particularly intense, when they realized they cannot have this air and hold the Olympics in Beijing in 2008. BYD produced their first car in 2003, and only a few years later an EV. In 2010 the gov was making plans to push local car brands to compete with foreign brands by making them focus on EVs. So in 2012 the Shenzhen gov purchased 500 EVs from BYD.

As successful this was, there was still not enough push in the gov to make the transition. So even BYD brought more hybrids and ICE cars on the market. And in 2017 the gov reduced subsidies for EVs, which made the transition even less likely. However, from 2009, the Shenzhen gov started to test fully electric buses, to fix the city air pollution. They invested and completed the transition to a full EV bus fleet in early 2018. Also most taxis have been changed to BYD EVs. Since most other cars where fairly new, the air indeed started to improve! I clearly remember how to smog started to be less heavy.

Mid July 2019. More and more EVs started to appear on the roads, not just BYD.

But not only EVs, also tucks for the city and for the construction industry. Here an order for BYD dump trucks in mid 2018! BYD does it all! Every time I am out, I see these trucks on the road.

The central gov realized years earlier, that what Shenzhen does, had a clear and profound impact on air pollution, so in 2017 the hammer fell and announced EV sales quotas!

If you really look into BYD alone, and see how much EV cars and trucks they produce and how advanced the charging infrastructure here is you would understand that T is totally irrelevant!

PS: In 2020 Shenzhen's air quality has consistently met European Union standards this year. Just last week: "Shenzhen recorded only three hazy days last year, the lowest number since 1988, a major victory in the city’s battle against air, water and soil pollution"!

 

[feye]

There needs to be a little more education on EVs, the green agenda, subsidies, direct to consumer sales model .
None of these have anything to do with Tesla.

Teslas stock price made it easier for every OEM to get Wallstreet financing for an EV strategy. Thats their benefit to the marketplace

OEMs waited as long as possible to sell money losing EVs until regulations required them too.
Tesla was 10 years ahead because they started earlier to lose money and to milk every subsidy possible.
OEMs have 50-100 year business plans so they know all of this.

And this is still an US view. In 2017 "The average auction price for a car license plate in Shenzhen, Guangdong province has hit another new high at CNY95,000 (USD14,500), taking it past Shanghai's to become China's most expensive." If you were to buy an EV at that time, there was no auction, because too little people were bidding, you registered and get it for free. My license for my Taycan last year expired because the car was delayed by 4 months. So a month before I just reregistered to get a new one.

 

[Torv]

I’ll go you one further - he will NEVER ship any roadsters - or _IF_ he does ship any it will be 75 units or less - i.e. very very very low volume just to not be a “total” liar - but it will be limited production to friends and family and these will be northing more than some hand built glorified prototypes.

he produce just enough to avoid lawsuites for early deposit holders

but time will tell - but that’s my official prediction.

Tesla should award anyone who put deposits (how much was it, $50000?) on the Roadster, Tesla stock back dated in value to when they started taking deposits on this vaporware.

 

[XLR82XS]

Tesla should award anyone who put deposits (how much was it, $50000?) on the Roadster, Tesla stock back dated in value to when they started taking deposits on this vaporware.

I would NEVER put that much $ down for something that does not have a defined delivery date. Capital gains I would receive on 50K after ~3 years would be substantial.

 

[daveo4EV]

some people have parked $250,000 for a "founders" edition Roadster…

insert {facepalm}??? here…article is dated because it says "shipping in 2020" - but yeah founders editions were $250,000 deposit

several former Tesla employees I know say there is an internal name for "founders" - we are in polite society so I won't repeat their names for founders in public.

https://www.carscoops.com/2017/11/tesla-asks-full-250000-up-front-for/

Did you like the new Tesla Roadster so much that you want one of the first ones in 2020? That’ll be $250,000 up front, like right now, thank you very much

coming up on 4 years (Nov. 2017) that this money has been parked with Tesla - and no end in sight for when they will actually get a roadster…

OMG…

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