Confused.... Porsche GB - thanks for order email

[Speuk]

I got my allocation about 2 weeks ago, delivery in September i have been told. I have been talking to Smoothound about this but I don’t have any confirmation at all. Spec was locked last Monday.

That seems an early lock for September build, must be early September?

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[Ruffy]

Hi all
Did final spec Saturday
Should have a delivery early October !!!
Can’t wait.

 

[briomir]

Hey everyone - just placed an order today and told looking at August 2023, but probably more like 12 - 18 months... Looking at everyone's posts, it seems that production speeds/capacities may be getting a bit better? Could just be wishful thinking on my part I guess...

 

[Dabz]

I placed a new order yesterday and was told 18 months if not longer

 

[TaycanHero]

Hey everyone - just placed an order today and told looking at August 2023, but probably more like 12 - 18 months... Looking at everyone's posts, it seems that production speeds/capacities may be getting a bit better? Could just be wishful thinking on my part I guess...

If China kicks off with Taiwan, add another six months.

Taiwan is one of the biggest suppliers of brake sensors, and you can't drive a car without brakes.

 

[darth_maul_80]

If China kicks off with Taiwan, add another six months.

Taiwan is one of the biggest suppliers of brake sensors, and you can't drive a car without brakes.

unless you’re Fred Flintstone!

 

[Fish Fingers]

I think some orders will start getting cancelled when the cost of living issues really kick in this Autumn (UK).

Some people would then jump up the queue and lead times shorten.

I know a Taycan is a wealthier person's car (who have deep pockets) but as well as utility and food prices, a lot of people are on fixed rate mortgages coming to an end soon. They may be in for a shock.

With rates rising (eg tmrw) I just number crunched my mortgage which has been @ 1.74% for 4.5 years.
I have taken the hit on the redemption penalty and have just jumped in to fix (our last) 5 years at 3.19%.

And the thing with mortgages is wealthier people often have bigger mortgages, so the financial hit is proportionate to earnings.

Sorry, slightly off topic but may be relevant to Taycan wait times going forward.

 

[mutanthands]

Putin also just turned off the gas supply to Germany, which will impact industry.
Expect more delays.

 

[TaycanHero]

I think some orders will start getting cancelled when the cost of living issues really kick in this Autumn (UK).

Some people would then jump up the queue and lead times shorten.

I know a Taycan is a wealthier person's car (who have deep pockets) but as well as utility and food prices, a lot of people are on fixed rate mortgages coming to an end soon. They may be in for a shock.

With rates rising (eg tmrw) I just number crunched my mortgage which has been @ 1.74% for 4.5 years.
I have taken the hit on the redemption penalty and have just jumped in to fix (our last) 5 years at 3.19%.

And the thing with mortgages is wealthier people often have bigger mortgages, so the financial hit is proportionate to earnings.

Sorry, slightly off topic but may be relevant to Taycan wait times going forward.

This is what I am expecting as well. Note also many Taycan purchases are via ltd companies, or salary sacrifice/leases where tax efficiency has incentivised many to pull the trigger on a new Taycan.

If business turns down (likely), or job losses happen (it's already happening with big tech, white collar jobs losses could turn nasty), that too will see orders cancelled.

The era of cheap money, which is now ending, also made financing an expensive car realistic for people who otherwise couldn't afford it.

Porsche interest rates are about 8% - by next year they could be 12% or higher.

On a £120k optioned car, £1,000 a month average interest payments will be here soon vs even beginning last year where 5-6% interest was possible.

Even high earners will notice that, not least with mortgage costs also increasing along with general living costs. Another thing that might set off a lot of hesitation.

 

[Dabz]

Totally agree with the above. Businesses will need to keep cash just in case. The point about wealthier people having larger mortgages is spot on too. We may see the waiting lists plummet, though they’d have to come down a lot to make any real difference.

sadly though, as with all periods of financial crisis, it’s likely to be the poorer who get hit harder and those with money will still be ok

 

[TaycanHero]

Totally agree with the above. Businesses will need to keep cash just in case. The point about wealthier people having larger mortgages is spot on too. We may see the waiting lists plummet, though they’d have to come down a lot to make any real difference.

sadly though, as with all periods of financial crisis, it’s likely to be the poorer who get hit harder and those with money will still be ok

True, though wealthy people are more likely to leverage (borrow) and also more likely to get that money with better credit ratings/collateral.

We are entering uncharted territory where borrowing is tightened or those borrowing from the ZIRP era are still paying off most that debt in the high interest rate (HIR?!) era.

So both poor and rich could end up in financial pain into 2023.

Porsche sales in their two biggest markets dropped by double digit figures H1 2022. The USA and China are about 5 months ahead of other developed countries with their recession, which will only get worse.

So I expect European Porsche sales to tank H2 2022 (UK, EEA countries all enter recession) - and with that, perhaps Taycan allocations will open up, especially as Porsche tries to rush through orders before people have a chance to survey their situation... and cancel. Shareholders are an important part of that equation.

 

[Dabz]

That would certainly work for me, tho also need to be mindful of the impression on my employees when I arrive in a 100k car. Will supplement with bonuses and wage rises…so it becomes an expensive toy!

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