OMG Elon really does lie

[daveo4EV]

this even exceeds my expectation and mine were pretty low

https://apple.news/A6JZBy8qJT8WkKAwtL54eSw

picture the poor “founders” customers who have posted 250k since like what 2018? 2017?

OMG this is just ridiculous.

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[daveo4EV]

I think the supply chain problem he’s focused on is that the battery technology required for the roadsters empty promises doesn’t exist yet.

 

[Mr.Smith]

I think the supply chain problem he’s focused on is that the battery technology required for the roadsters empty promises doesn’t exist yet.

It doesn't exist and it won't be Tesla that creates that technology.

Almost all Tesla owners are shareholders so that $250k helped increased the value of thier Tesla stock. They don't care, just like they don't care they spent $10k on worthless FSD

Teslas product is the stock. Everything from the capital raises, "FCF", cult following is based on the stock price.

 

[Mike in CA]

I'm not at all surprised.

 

[steen]

The delay has nothing to do with current supply chain problems, i.e. chip and batteries. The fact is that the performance data on the readster simply can not be reached with the current battery tech unless you utterly destroy the car with a double layer of 2170 cells. Try fitting 170-200kw of batteries into the roadster. If you take the taycan for instance, there is only room for about 95kw, and that is a much longer wheelbase. You need a truck to even be able to get fit more than 100kw into a car with the current tech.

The readster needs, as a minimum 4680 cells, or probably a new tech like solid state with much higher density which is years into the future.

Tesla will have to take a very difficult decision in 2022/2023 to either radically disapoint the customers with significantly lowered performance data and produce the roadster on 4680 cells in 2023, og postpone again. A roadster in 2023 will probably have a 100kw battery or so, but of course easily 1200hp.

I dont see the roadster until the end of this decade, when the battery tech is available.

 

[manitou202]

Between this announcement and the cancelling of the Model S Plaid+ with a 500 mile range, the 500 mile range CyberTruck is doomed as well. All three rely on the higher density batteries.

 

[ElectricSoul]

Between this announcement and the cancelling of the Model S Plaid+ with a 500 mile range, the 500 mile range CyberTruck is doomed as well. All three rely on the higher density batteries.

Interesting stuff going on with Tesla's battery supply chain. They have recently been pushing out more cars with those Iron-based batteries (Standard Range). Cybertruck and Semi always had been dependent on their high nickel batteries, which have not yet showed any sign of production-readiness. They recently signed a deal with the Anglo-Australian mining firm BHP for securing some nickel supply, but I would expect them to do at least hundreds of thousands of miles on the new chemistry cells before shipping them into production. But again, this is Tesla, and their quality control hasn't been great so far, so who knows how far along they are in productizing those mythical high-nickel battery packs they plan on using for Cybertruck and Semi.

 

[Reg]

Maybe the drama also involves the issue of getting a license from the FAA since he said the Roadster would levitate one meter off the ground using SpaceX tech. Neat trick in a car that has enough batteries for a 600 mile range and motors for a sub 1.99 0-60.

 

[hshm]

Consider the amount of wasted money, effort, talent and resources to get the Roadster in production—only to be delayed year-after-year. Not to mention the cancellation of the Plaid+ and delay of Cybertruck and Semi.

Meanwhile, the competition is here (or almost here). There are so many EV options that I'm starting to lose track. Just a year ago, that was not the case.

• Porsche Taycan
• Audi e-Tron GT
• Ford F-150 Lightning
• Ford Mach-E
• Mercedes EQS
• BMW iX
• BMW i4
• Hummer EV
• Lucid Air
• Rivian
• Volvo C40
• VW iD4
• Hyundai Ioniq 5

I'm no longer bullish on Tesla. Elon is unfocused and missed a huge opportunity to leapfrog the competition again. By 2023, I don't think they will be the leading EV company. More than likely, VW will overtake them in cars and Ford will overtake them in trucks.

 

[manitou202]

Cybertruck delayed until late 2022 (read 2023 at best).

https://electrek.co/2021/09/02/tesla-delays-cybertruck-late-2022/


Also, $25k Tesla to launch in 2023 possibly without a steering wheel. So this relies on FSD reliably working by then, and being able to add the $10k cost of FSD to a $25k car?

https://electrek.co/2021/09/02/tesl...n-2023-likely-will-not-have-a-steering-wheel/

 

[ElectricSoul]

Also, $25k Tesla to launch in 2023 possibly without a steering wheel. So this relies on FSD reliably working by then, and being able to add the $10k cost of FSD to a $25k car?

Given the amount of investigations against Tesla Autopilot crashes, I’m skeptical that regulators will be allowing such a car without a steering wheel solely relying on a vision-based system to hit the roads in 2023.

I’m willing to bet quite a bit against it.

 

[charliemathilde]

so I expect it’s delayed to end of 2024, first deliveries 2025. Yes that’s just a guess.

but I’m not nearly as pessimistic about the fundamental technology. The 4680 cells can get the roadster done. the car is quite large. It’s not a Cayman, it’s about the size of a model 3. It’s going to be an American muscle car.

Elon is being Elon. Whatever. I’m not sure I want a roadster anymore, given the competition at that price point or slightly higher by 2024. Some pretty awesome still on the horizon. But I still think a “baby Rimac” would be a pretty cool product.

Tesla has never been about the best. But they have democratized supercar power for the masses. I’m cautiously optimistic they make a product here that is to hypercars what the model 3 was to supercars’ 0-60 / $

 

[charliemathilde]

Note this isn’t a public statement, but a “source” so i take it with a high uncertainty value

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-battery-production-hell-details/

but if Tesla has hit 70% yield now, then 4680 batteries are real and the difference is “only money”. Which might make the roadster unviable at its price point, but not technically infeasible with today’s technology

 

[Mr.Smith]

Note this isn’t a public statement, but a “source” so i take it with a high uncertainty value

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-battery-production-hell-details/

but if Tesla has hit 70% yield now, then 4680 batteries are real and the difference is “only money”. Which might make the roadster unviable at its price point, but not technically infeasible with today’s technology

What makes anyone think Tesla can make any breakthrough technology?
I can't think of anything technologically invovative that they have done. Can you?

They have maybe 1300 patents across all business lines. Toyota just made 24,000 patents open source, just for hybrid technology.
GM has 3000 patents for EV technology alone

Tesla increased HP on a electric motor, with a low entry point price. Thats fantastic for us, but not a tech breakthrough.

Batteries have been in development for decades with companies that spend money on R&D. They will make battery a breakthrough before Tesla and sell to every OEM, like CATL LFP.

 

[daveo4EV]

so I expect it’s delayed to end of 2024, first deliveries 2025. Yes that’s just a guess.

I’ll go you one further - he will NEVER ship any roadsters - or _IF_ he does ship any it will be 75 units or less - i.e. very very very low volume just to not be a “total” liar - but it will be limited production to friends and family and these will be northing more than some hand built glorified prototypes.

he produce just enough to avoid lawsuites for early deposit holders

but time will tell - but that’s my official prediction.

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